I participate routinely in online auctions. Win a few - Lose a few, I’m OK with that approach. But when that 1 coin shows up, the one with great technical appeal, great eye appeal, solid for the grade, etc, I have yet to win the bid. The bids I place for those coins are at least 50% ABOVE published price guides (which are generally inflated to begin with). I’m struggling with trying to find justification on placing higher bids, especially when the common trend over the last 10 years has been lower values in the general coin market. Anyone else dealing with that?
Always, and not just for coins. You've got to live to fight another day. If, your going 50% over, I would say that is a good shot and with some online sales I have experienced, it's best to draw the line - especially if you don't have large sums to deal with. I find there is usually another treasure just down the road that takes the sting out of missing out on what just passed you by.
How bad do you want it? That's really the rule: if you really want it, and its a truly special coin, bid high or you will regret it. Let me give you an example. This coin is an 1810 Switzerland 5 Batzen, from Bern, graded NGC MS-66 DPL. I had the chance to buy this coin 3 times. The first was on Teletrade - normal coins of the type traded at the time for $150, so I put a very high bid of $250. I lost when it sold for $300. The second time it came up on Heritage a couple of years later. I learned my lesson and put a bid of $350... it sold for $700. Finally, I saw it one more time at the FUN show this year. The dealer wanted $1400. I wrote the check instantly, and have zero regrets.
Been there, done that....DOING that. The questions you or anybody should ask themselve are: (1) How rare is the coin ? Does it come up for auction every few weeks or months....or years ? If the latter, then paying a premium for one you love is worth it, IMO. (2) How much money are we talking about ? If it's a 50% premium on a few hundred bucks, that isn't life-changing for most of us. For a coin that costs a few thousand dollars, might not be life-changing but it's serious $$$. For a 5 or 6-figure coin, then unless you are wealthy, that's Big $$$. (3) Is it going to be one of many in your collection -- or is this a STANDOUT ? I want to buy a 1907 High Relief Saint, job and $$$ permitting. Would I pay 50% over FMV for a readily available coin in the condition that I know trades frequently ? Probably not....but this is probably going to be THE COIN in my collection for years if not decades (assuming I'm still around then ). So if the coin is a +....or CAC...or just looks undergraded in the condition I am probably going to be looking (AU58)...would I fork over a few extra thousand bucks ? Yeah, if I had it and was convinced it looked really, really, really good (apologies to Larry David ).
(1) What's Teletrade ? (2) From the first time you considered buying it to the 2020 FUN...what happened to the market for this coin in general ? Over what time period was your pursuit from bidding $250 -- 2 years ? 10 years ?
What makes you say the common trend over the last 10 years has been lower values? Whenever I look at past auction prices in the UK market they are almost always lower, and even 5 years ago some were going for a lot less
1. Teletrade was an auction company many years ago. I think they actually started in the pre-internet days and conducted auctions via teletype. I know they also shipped VHS tapes out to view coins, and then you could bid by phone in the 90s. When I used them, they had moved online. They had similar sort of material as Great Collections does now (GC sort of filled the void left by TT when they went under). TT was bought by Stacks Bowers somewhere around 2011-2012, and the SB website incorporated some of the bidding technology of TT (SB used to have one of the absolute worst websites in the coin biz). 2. It was about 10 years from the time I first saw this coin until I was able to purchase it. I started collecting PL coins in 2009-2010, and this was one of the first foreign PL coins I really tried to pursue. There are some segments of the market that are really hot, considerably moreso than 10 years ago. The US coin market has generally been trending down for the past ten years. Some people thought that FUN this year was a sign of a turnaround, but who knows now. Russian coins have also been extremely hot.
You think it had anything to do with me showing up ? Awesome !! My 1/6th oz Czar Nicholas II could be worth millions by next year if it goes up monthly at the same rate as Purell and hand-wipes !
You mean whenever you look at auction prices in the UK markete they are almost always HIGHER ? Was that a typo ? If stuff was alot less years ago, then you'd be describing a rising trend today. Overall, as the PCGS 3000 index shows (and yes, we know it has tons of flaws) but overall the coin market except for Ancients/Foreigns and High-Ends has been lower the last few years and overall the last 10-15 years.
Yes I was talking about 'past' auction prices being lower I.e. they are higher now. But I was asking because that is just my experience - I haven't seen a study like the one you've quoted. Then again, that is for the overall coin market 'except for Ancients/Foreigns and High-Ends', which excludes everything I collect (ancients/'foreigns'...I wish high-ends!)
I just know the basic most popular U.S. coin types -- and they've been heading lower. The bullion coins -- Saints and Morgans -- tend to get ahead of themselves every time gold and silver move up, then they stagnate, and then it's a longer decline. It's funny -- it's almost the opposite of the stock market where the market takes a while to run up but goes down much much quicker. With gold and silver coins, they move UP quick but it's a long exasperating decline on the downside. As for other coins without bullion features -- Barbers, Franklins, Liberty's, etc. -- I can't speak to them but generally, except I know that they are generally lower today, esp. the Franklins (from reading some really emotional angst over on the CU boards). What moved them up years ago -- since they're not tied to bullion, maybe they just followed a spurt up in the PCGS 3000 or the bullion-tied coins -- I don't know. But I believe many are down 30-60% in the last 5-7 years.
Glad I'm not going down this path by myself! Physics-fan3.14 -- that's a wonderful example, Goldfinger1969 -- great set of questions. I appreciate the insight I have been a life long "Value Shopper". Not only in coin collecting, but all areas of my life. My collection is basic everyday examples of turn of the century coins, late 1800's to early 1900's, in the $100 to $1000 dollar range. I really enjoy Indian Cents, Buffalo Nickels and Indian Eagles. A few years back, I decided I wanted to add a few "Stand Out" examples of each of those series. (great term!, Goldfinger1969). The Stand Out coins I have perused are in the mid 4 figure range. Not Moon Money, but still a nice chunk of change. They only show up 2-3 times a year. I think I have come to the realization, that a great coin will (most) always be a great coin, no matter the current market. The nicer examples will always grab more attention, thus more money. I was speaking with my neighbor last week, who has been buying/selling vintage-classic metal advertising signs for the last 20 years. He was telling me that the market has shifted the past few years. At one time he could re-sell any sign - any condition. He said now buyers are much more demanding in quality and appearance. Just any condition won't do - has to have eye appeal. He has less clients now but all are chasing the same high level signage. He said he never has a problem selling that level of sign. So this probably holds true to those "Stand Out" coins. I will just have to up my ante and have no regrets. Thanks Guys!
That's interesting...what are these signs, you mean like the old DRINK COKE signs or others that you would see at bars, restaurants, etc. ? It's interesting...it could mean his business has shifted online to Ebay or the like. Or it could mean that more people have lost interest in memorabilia like that...but the ones that are still interested have more $$$ and will chase quality in that sector. It would be like losing lots of coin collectors in the hobby and/or maybe collectors of Saint-Gaudens coins....but more people wanting high-end Saints and 1907 HR's. Something like that .
