If you bought a coin years ago what would it cost now if it tracked inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index? I created an Excel file to answer that for each year going back to 1970 with a "Multiple since then" column. I put it on my educational site here: http://esty.ancients.info/numis/ConsumerPriceIndexMultiple.pdf For example, it shows that if you bought a coin in 2000 and it tracked inflation, it would cost 1.38 times as much now in 2015. The multiple for a coin bought in 1980 is 3.00. Feel free to download it and print it out.
Concise and very helpful! This, correlated with historic exchange rates of the various major currencies, should be prerequisites for anyone considering perusing old auction catalogs. It's very intriguing to see how prices have changed over time, both in absolute and relative terms.
Please review what this tells us. I see two points of interest. Progression was steady over the years with a flat spot 2008-2009 (most of us recall that period) and a fractional reversal in 2015 (probably well under the margin of error). Certainly what it does not take into account are our errors in judgment (I paid too much 20 years ago and am still 'under water') and personal circumstances ("When I was a kid, Cokes were a nickel but I didn't have a nickel so I didn't have a Coke."). People in my age bracket often have trouble accepting the 'Big Picture' of money (or anything, for that matter). When I was a kid the local grease seller had small burgers for 10 cents which was usually a Mercury dime. Today the same burger is on the dollar menu and sells for no more than the current price of a common Mercury dime. What have I learned from this? If I could go back in time 60 years and could bring back a pocket full of coins, I should bring ancients???
There are many inflation calculators online that are handy to use for anyone who's interested. Here's one: http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
People often forget to take inflation into account when talking about collectibles. Sure, that Morgan was only $10 when you bought it in 1970 and you just sold it for $65.... but if you take inflation into account, you really only made $4 profit. This is extremely important to factor into your decisions!
Yeah, but I have quite a few ancients with tags from the 60's, (a few from the 30's). In most of those cases you would have been better off buying a capped bust half rather than the ancient comparing current values. Never any easy answers except one. Buy coins you love and appreciate and give you "value" today. Then you get your "return" instantly and anything else is just gravy. Its a nice spreadsheet Warren, something I agree collectors never take into account when they talk about the "good old days". To me, the "good old days" has more to do with more coins being for sale rather than pricing. Every year there seems to be fewer and fewer collector grade coins to buy.
I recently stumbled upon a 1956 Red Book ($1 at a used book store). After looking through it it was evident that just about any coin purchased at that time, if squirreled away, would be worth much more today. But as previously stated by other posters, everything is relative and the inflation adjusted value must be taken into consideration when determining the real gain.
My grandparents hoarded old US coins. I sold most of the collection a couple of years ago-- the higher-end coins (gold) privately and most of the rest to dealers. The total was ~$25K. My cousins, who had the other half of the hoard, sold their half to Heritage for about half as much money but with far less hassle. My mom was thrilled at the profit from her half. However, if my grandparents had simply put that money in a compounded interest savings account, it would have been worth more. So, echoing what Medoraman said... collect because you love it, not for dreams of a big profit.
My wife is helping me build an MS Access Database for my Ancients (as well as other collectibles). One aspect that I wanted to add was an inflation value adjuster to mark my real value to market (after inflation, what is the coin really worth). I don't plan to sell them, as I COLLECT and ENJOY. However, it is nice to understand the underlying value of your purchase, and compare to market to "feel" good. Thank you Warren, this is a great tool that I will draw upon for the auto-calcs within the database.
