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<p>[QUOTE="HawkeEye, post: 2801382, member: 86305"]I did not say they did not track them all, only that the PCGS3000 is an investors index and actually proved my point not disproved it.</p><p><br /></p><p>As to tracking them all I obviously know that since for the 81-O I showed them all. But there are a lot of problems with the population report (and to some degree popularity) and we all know there are a lot of issues. No TPG can track crossovers and crack outs, so the population reports for coins above about AU58 are somewhat suspect. In all likelihood collectors would not resubmit a coin below AU58, so those population numbers become more solid the lower you go.</p><p><br /></p><p>Most Morgans graded are as you said in the MS63-MS66 range, but that is a function of mint production and PCGS pricing. When it cost more to grade a coin than they value it after grading, then submitting the coin for grading is pointless. In many cases this can happen at mid AU grades. Morgans were never intended to be widely circulated and storage methods, conditions, and production quality all dictate grade. Few made it to the upper grades because of bag damage.</p><p><br /></p><p>I also don't think you can look at the MS grades generically since perceived Mint production does impact rarity. None of us know what coins were melted by the Pittman Act, so rarity is also directionally correct only. An MS64 81-O has a totally different rarity than an 81-S MS64 because of the number graded. This is an indicator of rarity but no guarantee. Ask those bitten by the Redfield hoard release about rarity and then think about a discovery of 93-S hoard and what it would do to collectors and investors. It would still be rare because of the original Mint designated production run, but maybe not super rare in the top grades.</p><p><br /></p><p>For every Morgan date/mint there is a price point where investors come in and it is easy to spot. For every coin the value goes up by a fraction until you hit the investment point. Then it goes up exponentially from there. This is a function of rarity but it prices a lot of pure collectors out of the market. In my example on the 81-O web site I peg this transition in the MS65 range where the price goes from roughly $175 for an MS64 to $1270 for an MS65, and then on to $2715 for an MS65+, etc. </p><p><br /></p><p>If I am a collector, and looking for varieties, I can stop about MS63 and acquire them for $75. Only when I cannot find them would I move up the grade/cost scale. If I am an investor I have no interest in any coin below MS65 because buying in quantity is just too hard. I am probably an unusual collector because of the narrow focus and working to produce a full VAM and grading set. By the end of the year I will probably hold about 5% of all PCGS graded 81-O Morgans. This is an unwise investment, but a great collection. I am doing it for educational purposes and to help others. If I wanted to invest in 81-O Morgans I would have bought about 3 or 4 MS65DMPL or higher coins. I would be cussing because I would have lost a lot and learned nothing other than to invest in something other than coins.</p><p><br /></p><p>Take any Morgan date/mint and do the same analysis and I think the same facts hold. There is an collector/investor break point and it is the investors not collectors that are suffering the most.</p><p><br /></p><p>Great discussion and thanks.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="HawkeEye, post: 2801382, member: 86305"]I did not say they did not track them all, only that the PCGS3000 is an investors index and actually proved my point not disproved it. As to tracking them all I obviously know that since for the 81-O I showed them all. But there are a lot of problems with the population report (and to some degree popularity) and we all know there are a lot of issues. No TPG can track crossovers and crack outs, so the population reports for coins above about AU58 are somewhat suspect. In all likelihood collectors would not resubmit a coin below AU58, so those population numbers become more solid the lower you go. Most Morgans graded are as you said in the MS63-MS66 range, but that is a function of mint production and PCGS pricing. When it cost more to grade a coin than they value it after grading, then submitting the coin for grading is pointless. In many cases this can happen at mid AU grades. Morgans were never intended to be widely circulated and storage methods, conditions, and production quality all dictate grade. Few made it to the upper grades because of bag damage. I also don't think you can look at the MS grades generically since perceived Mint production does impact rarity. None of us know what coins were melted by the Pittman Act, so rarity is also directionally correct only. An MS64 81-O has a totally different rarity than an 81-S MS64 because of the number graded. This is an indicator of rarity but no guarantee. Ask those bitten by the Redfield hoard release about rarity and then think about a discovery of 93-S hoard and what it would do to collectors and investors. It would still be rare because of the original Mint designated production run, but maybe not super rare in the top grades. For every Morgan date/mint there is a price point where investors come in and it is easy to spot. For every coin the value goes up by a fraction until you hit the investment point. Then it goes up exponentially from there. This is a function of rarity but it prices a lot of pure collectors out of the market. In my example on the 81-O web site I peg this transition in the MS65 range where the price goes from roughly $175 for an MS64 to $1270 for an MS65, and then on to $2715 for an MS65+, etc. If I am a collector, and looking for varieties, I can stop about MS63 and acquire them for $75. Only when I cannot find them would I move up the grade/cost scale. If I am an investor I have no interest in any coin below MS65 because buying in quantity is just too hard. I am probably an unusual collector because of the narrow focus and working to produce a full VAM and grading set. By the end of the year I will probably hold about 5% of all PCGS graded 81-O Morgans. This is an unwise investment, but a great collection. I am doing it for educational purposes and to help others. If I wanted to invest in 81-O Morgans I would have bought about 3 or 4 MS65DMPL or higher coins. I would be cussing because I would have lost a lot and learned nothing other than to invest in something other than coins. Take any Morgan date/mint and do the same analysis and I think the same facts hold. There is an collector/investor break point and it is the investors not collectors that are suffering the most. Great discussion and thanks.[/QUOTE]
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