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<p>[QUOTE="HawkeEye, post: 2800877, member: 86305"]Dang my PC logged me out and I lost my reply, but here goes again! If my other post shows up it will be similar, but not identical.</p><p><br /></p><p>You are right that my analysis only covers the 1881-O Morgans and I did not mean to imply more that conclusions I believe we can draw from those statistics. In other conversations with Morgan collectors and investors the data supports what I have heard. I am an individual collector and to a lesser degree an investor. For every type/variety/year/mint it seems that there is a price point where investors come into drive the pricing and average collectors must exit the stage.</p><p><br /></p><p>In the top charts the big spike back in the 89/90 era was probably caused by Black Monday and the S&L crisis. If you bought back then, then as the chart shows you will probably never recover short of the Zombie Apocalypse. The index would have to triple to make you whole. Like the Hunt Brothers, those investors have come and gone. Average collectors could not have driven the coin market that high and I assume rarely or never influence pricing on an individual basis. Many of those investors may have passed into the great beyond, so it is just too far back.</p><p><br /></p><p>The PCGS 3000 cuts across all types/varieties/mints/grades, but focuses on the upper end of each. PCGS (and maybe the other TPGs) focus primarily on MS/PR coins and the 3000 Index is a reflection of that fluctuation. In just the Morgan area they focus almost exclusively on grades MS63 and up. Only the 93-S gets them off that and even there they include seven grades with a combined value of $1.3 million. Just the MS65 sells for $650,000 and only investors will ever see or own one. A type set of Morgans in MS65 now goes for $3.2 million and most of us will never see that. In my opinion there is little reason to believe the 3000 Index would play out differently for different coin types. PCGS would not track the trend of a Lincoln penny that sells for a dollar, it is irrelevant to the index.</p><p><br /></p><p>The Morgan/Peace chart may speak directly to the point I was making. The big spike back in 08 was probably due to the stock market crash that sent big investors in other directions looking for safe havens. These investors don't come in and buy 1,000 MS63 coins at $80 each. They buy an MS68 something for $80,000 in a single transaction and drive the short-term upper end prices up because of demand and scarcity. At one time several of the brokerage firms tried to bundle rare coins as securities. For sure these were investment grade and the buyer never saw the coins.</p><p><br /></p><p>I believe the drop in the Morgan/Peace index since 2015 is a similar event. As investor confidence has returned people have moved back to the stock market and away from alternatives. You also have the problem of the large numbers of Baby Boomers who have not planned for retirement and need to liquidate coins to live on as they age. The boomers need income producing assets, not long-term capital gains. Long term for them is years, not decades. There may be more sellers than buyers for quite a while if this is true. The big investors often care less about the hobby and move big dollars, and those are in the top grades. I believe the true collectors are in it for fun, education, and association with like-minded people. A collector who loses 25% of a $100 purchase lost lunch money; an investor who lost 25% of a $650,000 purchase will probably look for a more stable investment.</p><p><br /></p><p>But you made me think and I like that. From my perspective the data I presented is representative of the markets and what Morgan collectors and investors have seen over the past decade. You see it differently and I respect that. Thanks and have a good evening.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="HawkeEye, post: 2800877, member: 86305"]Dang my PC logged me out and I lost my reply, but here goes again! If my other post shows up it will be similar, but not identical. You are right that my analysis only covers the 1881-O Morgans and I did not mean to imply more that conclusions I believe we can draw from those statistics. In other conversations with Morgan collectors and investors the data supports what I have heard. I am an individual collector and to a lesser degree an investor. For every type/variety/year/mint it seems that there is a price point where investors come into drive the pricing and average collectors must exit the stage. In the top charts the big spike back in the 89/90 era was probably caused by Black Monday and the S&L crisis. If you bought back then, then as the chart shows you will probably never recover short of the Zombie Apocalypse. The index would have to triple to make you whole. Like the Hunt Brothers, those investors have come and gone. Average collectors could not have driven the coin market that high and I assume rarely or never influence pricing on an individual basis. Many of those investors may have passed into the great beyond, so it is just too far back. The PCGS 3000 cuts across all types/varieties/mints/grades, but focuses on the upper end of each. PCGS (and maybe the other TPGs) focus primarily on MS/PR coins and the 3000 Index is a reflection of that fluctuation. In just the Morgan area they focus almost exclusively on grades MS63 and up. Only the 93-S gets them off that and even there they include seven grades with a combined value of $1.3 million. Just the MS65 sells for $650,000 and only investors will ever see or own one. A type set of Morgans in MS65 now goes for $3.2 million and most of us will never see that. In my opinion there is little reason to believe the 3000 Index would play out differently for different coin types. PCGS would not track the trend of a Lincoln penny that sells for a dollar, it is irrelevant to the index. The Morgan/Peace chart may speak directly to the point I was making. The big spike back in 08 was probably due to the stock market crash that sent big investors in other directions looking for safe havens. These investors don't come in and buy 1,000 MS63 coins at $80 each. They buy an MS68 something for $80,000 in a single transaction and drive the short-term upper end prices up because of demand and scarcity. At one time several of the brokerage firms tried to bundle rare coins as securities. For sure these were investment grade and the buyer never saw the coins. I believe the drop in the Morgan/Peace index since 2015 is a similar event. As investor confidence has returned people have moved back to the stock market and away from alternatives. You also have the problem of the large numbers of Baby Boomers who have not planned for retirement and need to liquidate coins to live on as they age. The boomers need income producing assets, not long-term capital gains. Long term for them is years, not decades. There may be more sellers than buyers for quite a while if this is true. The big investors often care less about the hobby and move big dollars, and those are in the top grades. I believe the true collectors are in it for fun, education, and association with like-minded people. A collector who loses 25% of a $100 purchase lost lunch money; an investor who lost 25% of a $650,000 purchase will probably look for a more stable investment. But you made me think and I like that. From my perspective the data I presented is representative of the markets and what Morgan collectors and investors have seen over the past decade. You see it differently and I respect that. Thanks and have a good evening.[/QUOTE]
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