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<p>[QUOTE="World Colonial, post: 2466624, member: 78153"]To which coins does your opinion apply? In what price range?</p><p><br /></p><p>The biggest problem I have with the PCGS estimates is that there is no sanity check applied to them. I have also heard that PCGS uses "experts" in the series for the estimates in Coin Facts but still don't see that many make any sense.</p><p><br /></p><p>As examples, in another topic on this forum, the '21 and '21-d Mercury dimes supposedly have 2000 and 3500 survivors. This is about the same or even less than the estimates for many early 19th and even late 18th century US issues. It's also potentially about the same or less than the estimates for some of the dates in the pillar 1/2 and one real from Mexico, Peru and maybe Bolivia struck from 1732-1772. Does any one really believe that?</p><p><br /></p><p>Other inconsistencies I noticed are between draped bust/large eagle and capped bust halves and the 1894 IHC in "UNC". For the halves, most of these estimates are for Red Book varieties but not all. The 1807 DB supposedly has 3000 survivors while the 1835 CB 6000. If the 1807 is ballpark accurate, I'd say the 1835 has at least 50,000, as this would represent a survival rate of about 1% for both. Most likely, the survival rate is much higher on the 1835. </p><p><br /></p><p>The 1894 IHC supposedly has 150 MS-60+ and only 5000 in all grades, even though it's part of one of the most popular series, it isn't a key date (that I have ever heard) and it's price is not that high. If those numbers were remotely accurate, its price would be much higher.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="World Colonial, post: 2466624, member: 78153"]To which coins does your opinion apply? In what price range? The biggest problem I have with the PCGS estimates is that there is no sanity check applied to them. I have also heard that PCGS uses "experts" in the series for the estimates in Coin Facts but still don't see that many make any sense. As examples, in another topic on this forum, the '21 and '21-d Mercury dimes supposedly have 2000 and 3500 survivors. This is about the same or even less than the estimates for many early 19th and even late 18th century US issues. It's also potentially about the same or less than the estimates for some of the dates in the pillar 1/2 and one real from Mexico, Peru and maybe Bolivia struck from 1732-1772. Does any one really believe that? Other inconsistencies I noticed are between draped bust/large eagle and capped bust halves and the 1894 IHC in "UNC". For the halves, most of these estimates are for Red Book varieties but not all. The 1807 DB supposedly has 3000 survivors while the 1835 CB 6000. If the 1807 is ballpark accurate, I'd say the 1835 has at least 50,000, as this would represent a survival rate of about 1% for both. Most likely, the survival rate is much higher on the 1835. The 1894 IHC supposedly has 150 MS-60+ and only 5000 in all grades, even though it's part of one of the most popular series, it isn't a key date (that I have ever heard) and it's price is not that high. If those numbers were remotely accurate, its price would be much higher.[/QUOTE]
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