Coin Pricing & Guides

More so just that it really shouldnt be mentioned in price guides, but I would guess there's probably an agenda there regardless after getting pushed out and CU seeing great success

 

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The assertion that "all the price guides are terrible and out of date before they are printed. and so are auctions and ebay listings skewed by the bidding action" seems to me to miss the point that those are precisely where current price points are determined. Most coin buyers aren't even in the market for four and five figure coins (I apologize, I can't count higher than that) - coin collecting isn't that exclusive a club... yet Thankfully, folks like me and my son can still get in with going through our pocket change and then, after getting hooked, spending $50 here or there, and on rare occasion a bit more than that. As with everything, the market determines the prices, and the market relates to what most people are buying and selling - we're not talking rare early gold issues here. I check "Sold" auctions on eBay to determine my low ball bids, for the most part. The $20 or less early large cent collection is one of my favorite ongoing threads on this site - and your favorite for under $50.

 

I agree w/dimeguy, but I do check price guides (its a "GUIDE" not "law") to see how good/bad the purchase MIGHT BE. Honestly...I'm not gonna back off on something just to keep a price lower for someone else - sorry if that sounds offensive to some. My collection is my collection. Sometimes I overpay, sometimes I don't. I've since had all my raw coins (Morgans) graded and I've had a lot of surprises; good and bad. When I get bored I just go thru them one at a time; sometimes laughing about how much I paid; good & bad. A good example is my 1895-S PCGS VF-20; I paid like $350 for it. NGC price is $995 & PCGS is $750. Maybe they just wanted to be rid of it...who knows (I've since had it regraded by PCGS; still VF-20). I just bought an NGC AU50 1900-O/CC...I paid about $100 above the avg "price guides" price...but its a very nice, clean AU50 and I'm thrilled with it. It's my collection and my $$ and as far as I know I only have one chance to enjoy these; perhaps if I had started when I was younger and making ALOT more $$ (and had more time) things may have been different. Buy what you love All good things take time; time takes away all good things. Cheers!

 

So where does, "it's worth whatever you're (someone is) willing to pay" belong in all this...? I mean, if I want a particular coin bad enough, I'm willing to pay for it no matter of any guide, current auction prices, etc...so long as I (think I) can afford it.

 

@GDJMSP, in the vast majority of cases, dealers, not collectors are the only buyers who do well at auctions. The reason is that many of them, except the extreme specialists are open to buying anything if the price is right. Collectors are usually looking for a specific, much narrower list of items. Furthermore, if the collector is looking for pieces with good eye appeal, their chances of buying something at a bargain price are even less.

I have never done well at auctions. Every item I have selected has usually been driven to the moon by one other bidder. All it takes is one other person to spoil the fun.

One time I bid a rare coin up to too much money by a telephone bidder who reneged on their high bid in a Heritage Auction. I was a floor bidder against the person who was on the phone. I ended up with the item, but I felt used used. This is one of many instances that have caused me to hate auctions.

I’ll take a straight sale or a “bid or buy” auction over a straight auction whenever I can. At least I will end up with the item I want instead of having some cowboy, with more money than brains, driving me to the moon.

 

Sometime in the early 90s it became a net price catalog. I was out of dealing by then. But these days, a complete Scott's is very cost prohibitive, another reason why most collectors don't have one. I was thinking about getting back into dealing but there's no way I'll spend close to $1000 for a complete set. Older editions, perhaps.

 

I have no idea how auctions work. But as the underbidder to a single other bidder who ran the price up and then reneged, don't you have the right of refusal? Or to say your first bid that was first topped by the high bidder is your winning bid, not your last bid. Multiple bidders would be different of course.

 

Heritage offered to re-open the lot. I probably should have done that. A couple experienced people on the PCGS forum said I did the right thing if I really wanted it. It was an 1855-D gold dollar, that is totally original and well struck. A number a dealers on the bourse floor commented about how unusually nice it is.

 

I generally just do a quick ebay sold listings if I feel like it as I pretty much stay in the sub-$300 coin end of the hobby and pretty much all 'published' price guides don't do a good job of estimating these prices.

I generally understand the ongoing market for the coins I target and will buy or pass using my own judgement.

 

When I first got into collecting, I bought an 1831 Bust Half Dollar graded AU55 by NGC from the LCS. It was the first coin I paid over $100 for. I paid full retail for the coin. So, I always would keep an eye on the price guides to see if the coin would appreciate. It did after about 5 years it went up to $500. I paid $450. Then the other day I get the PCGS price guide in the mail.

I hadn't checked prices on the Bust half for a while. I had seen sales on eBay not reaching retail prices. I like the coin, but didn't love the coin. I love the PCGS price guide and my coin now. The PCGS price guide now says an 1831 in the grade of AU55 is $900. WhooHoo!!!!! I was like no way. I went back to the previous PCGS price guide and it also said $900. Oh, heck yes!

Back to reality. I go to NGC and enter the cert. number to my coin, lo and behold NGC price guide hasn't budged. It is still stuck at $515. Then I went to eBay. I guess they haven't checked the latest PCGS price guide either. They're still trying to get what I paid for the coin originally years ago. If one was to use the PCGS price guide solely for buying an 1831 Bust half in AU55, $700 for that coin may seem like a bargain. Do your homework.

 

My experience has been that the grey sheet is the only written or digital listing of prices for US coins that is reasonably close to the "real" market, particularly for generic coins in a given grade, and it must be used judiciously and merely as a starting point.

All of the others are consistently retail ++. I haven't kept up with the Krause publications of foreign coins for years, but years ago you could divide by 2 and be much closer to real value. There is a vested interest in the coin publications price guides to value coins well over the market to keep collectors obliviously happy and dealers are the advertisers that pay the bills.

 

Yep. I don't think I've looked at a price guide in the past 6 or 7 years, when I'm buying i just look around at prices and sold listings and figure out about what whatever I'm buying is going for on average. Then i decide what I'm willing to pay.

 

I always check on realized auction prices for coins I am interested in. My problem arises when I look at say a 1907 MS-64 Saint, and look at photos of the previous coins sold. Well, some auction houses have better pictures than others, and some marks/scratches can be hidden depending on the lighting. So what I come up with is, OK, this coin sold for $3,500.00, another for $3,600.00, etc. But, is it really an MS-64? Maybe the coin was closer to an MS-63 than an MS-64, etc. So, auction prices are a great source of information, but, you really need to know how to interpret photos to see if you are comparing apples to apples.