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<p>[QUOTE="The Eidolon, post: 4871871, member: 102103"]I like your analysis quite a bit, and it seems sensible. I might add a couple of points to suggest: </p><p>1) The world population has gone up compared to the US, particularly in Asia and Africa, over the last couple generations. The number of potential collectors has gone up, while the supply of historic coins is approximately flat. So it would make sense to see a long-term sectoral shift towards strengthening of prices in world coins, at least from selected countries.</p><p>2) The wealth in formerly "Third World" countries has also gone up markedly in the same time period. Coin collectors tend to come from people from the middle class or wealthier, who have some discretionary income. As countries pull out of poverty, there are a lot more potential collectors of that country's numismatic history.</p><p><br /></p><p>I guess what I'm trying to say is the US has a mature collector's market for coins, while in many other countries it was still developing. So it makes sense to se a long-term shift in coin prices in world coins from countries which had weak domestic demand. That shift may be different from the typical bull and bear markets, as it is caused by a real shift in demand curve.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="The Eidolon, post: 4871871, member: 102103"]I like your analysis quite a bit, and it seems sensible. I might add a couple of points to suggest: 1) The world population has gone up compared to the US, particularly in Asia and Africa, over the last couple generations. The number of potential collectors has gone up, while the supply of historic coins is approximately flat. So it would make sense to see a long-term sectoral shift towards strengthening of prices in world coins, at least from selected countries. 2) The wealth in formerly "Third World" countries has also gone up markedly in the same time period. Coin collectors tend to come from people from the middle class or wealthier, who have some discretionary income. As countries pull out of poverty, there are a lot more potential collectors of that country's numismatic history. I guess what I'm trying to say is the US has a mature collector's market for coins, while in many other countries it was still developing. So it makes sense to se a long-term shift in coin prices in world coins from countries which had weak domestic demand. That shift may be different from the typical bull and bear markets, as it is caused by a real shift in demand curve.[/QUOTE]
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