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<p>[QUOTE="GDJMSP, post: 4871550, member: 112"]I don't believe they are stable. In general, values on US coins have been steadily dropping for 12 years now, with only minor upticks along the way quickly followed by more dropping.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>I first wrote about it in Numismatic News in 2003 when values for world coins in general began climbing. And I wrote about it here on this forum, and other forums, even before that. And it hasn't stopped, or even slowed, since then. If anything, prices are climbing even faster now than they ever have. </p><p><br /></p><p>In the beginning, I believe it was all for legitimate reasons. World coins were badly undervalued and had been for many decades. To a degree, perhaps a large degree, that was because they just weren't all that popular. I think the climb began for the same reasons I predicted it would, as mentioned, world coins were undervalued, their scarcity was far beyond that of US coins, there was far more history (as in years) behind them, a great many had fabulous designs which many collectors fell in love with once they became exposed to them, and they were readily available to those with a little patience. The climb was slow and steady for almost 6 years.</p><p><br /></p><p>And as usually happens with any bull market - people jump on the bandwagon. I believe when many collectors, saw the US market rapidly declining in 2008, they jumped on the bandwagon of world coins which were still going up. And by that time the general popularity of world coins had greatly increased, not just here in the US, but most other countries as well. People simply like winners, and strongly dislike losers. And the bigger that bandwagon got the more people there were who jumped on. And the longer that run-up lasted, the more jumped on. The bandwagon effect, this much at least is normal with any market, always has been.</p><p><br /></p><p>Today, the run-up has lasted 17 years. That's an unprecedented length of time for a bull market in coins. Of course, 12 years is also an unprecedented length of time for a bear market in coins. And the two, happening at the same time, well, I believe in a way feeding on each other. In other words, each one is directly and or indirectly causing the other. This has happened before, but only to a much, much smaller degree, and for a much shorter period of time.</p><p><br /></p><p>The question that people should be asking themselves is - what's gonna happen next ? The answer is inevitable, steady and steep declines always end. Steady and steep increases always end. Neither one of them goes on forever, at least they never have in recorded history. Declines always reverse and turn into increases, maybe slowly for a few years, accompanied by small ups and downs along the way, usually resulting in a sideways movement for a period of years. And eventually the run-ups return. Same kind of thing happens with increases, but in a slightly different way. The declines are much faster (as in drop further), and typically occur in a shorter period of time. Eventually, once they reach bottom, they end up moving sideways for a few years. </p><p><br /></p><p>The thing is nobody ever knows there the bottoms and tops are gonna be nor exactly how fast and or slow each will occur. But what pretty much everybody knows is the pattern never fails to repeat. Sooner later the same things happen all over again.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="GDJMSP, post: 4871550, member: 112"]I don't believe they are stable. In general, values on US coins have been steadily dropping for 12 years now, with only minor upticks along the way quickly followed by more dropping. I first wrote about it in Numismatic News in 2003 when values for world coins in general began climbing. And I wrote about it here on this forum, and other forums, even before that. And it hasn't stopped, or even slowed, since then. If anything, prices are climbing even faster now than they ever have. In the beginning, I believe it was all for legitimate reasons. World coins were badly undervalued and had been for many decades. To a degree, perhaps a large degree, that was because they just weren't all that popular. I think the climb began for the same reasons I predicted it would, as mentioned, world coins were undervalued, their scarcity was far beyond that of US coins, there was far more history (as in years) behind them, a great many had fabulous designs which many collectors fell in love with once they became exposed to them, and they were readily available to those with a little patience. The climb was slow and steady for almost 6 years. And as usually happens with any bull market - people jump on the bandwagon. I believe when many collectors, saw the US market rapidly declining in 2008, they jumped on the bandwagon of world coins which were still going up. And by that time the general popularity of world coins had greatly increased, not just here in the US, but most other countries as well. People simply like winners, and strongly dislike losers. And the bigger that bandwagon got the more people there were who jumped on. And the longer that run-up lasted, the more jumped on. The bandwagon effect, this much at least is normal with any market, always has been. Today, the run-up has lasted 17 years. That's an unprecedented length of time for a bull market in coins. Of course, 12 years is also an unprecedented length of time for a bear market in coins. And the two, happening at the same time, well, I believe in a way feeding on each other. In other words, each one is directly and or indirectly causing the other. This has happened before, but only to a much, much smaller degree, and for a much shorter period of time. The question that people should be asking themselves is - what's gonna happen next ? The answer is inevitable, steady and steep declines always end. Steady and steep increases always end. Neither one of them goes on forever, at least they never have in recorded history. Declines always reverse and turn into increases, maybe slowly for a few years, accompanied by small ups and downs along the way, usually resulting in a sideways movement for a period of years. And eventually the run-ups return. Same kind of thing happens with increases, but in a slightly different way. The declines are much faster (as in drop further), and typically occur in a shorter period of time. Eventually, once they reach bottom, they end up moving sideways for a few years. The thing is nobody ever knows there the bottoms and tops are gonna be nor exactly how fast and or slow each will occur. But what pretty much everybody knows is the pattern never fails to repeat. Sooner later the same things happen all over again.[/QUOTE]
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