Coin Market and the Stock Market

This month, July, will mark the 100th month of the current Bull run in the Stock market. Second longest in history, 113 months being the record. While approximately the same time frame the Coin market has seen declining values. And yes, there is a small area of the coin market that has seen some positive increases, but overall prices have been on a downward trend.
So my question is, when the Bear returns to the Stock market, as defined by a 20% drop, will this reverse the depressed coin market? I realize the Stock market is investor driven and the Coin market is collector and investor driven, so not an equal comparison.
I've been a collector for 40 plus years, but only really active again for the past 4-5 years.
So I haven't paid attention how the 2 markets react to each other during previous cycles.
Has anyone observed this?

 

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For your convenience, here's the inflation-corrected Dow over about the same interval. Note that the vertical axis is logarithmic, which tends to squash the peaks, but is arguably better for viewing long-term financial data. Grey bands represent recessions. I'll see if I can find a non-inflation-corrected version, as I believe the PCGS chart doesn't correct for inflation.

Edit: the site where I got this claims to offer options to turn off inflation adjustment and log scale, but they don't seem to work. Maybe later.

 

We all have seen the $500,000 coins continue go up and the $30-100 coins go down. My thinking is the wealthy are getting wealthier and there are more of them, so the price goes up. They don't want cheap coins.

If Trump is successful is buoying up the incomes of the middle class, that could reverse the slide. If he doesn't, we will wallow for a long time I'm afraid.
Dan

 

When the market goes down, silver and gold go up for sure. Silver and gold coins go up as well. I'm not sure about the others. While prices are down, I'm buying mint sets, because they're cheap.

 

I defer to your charts. What I base my opinion on is the newsletters that say this or that is up. They are normally high priced coins. But...I am usually wrong and see no reason to change my track record.

 

Why you are a philosopher. Thanks.

 

I hate to ruin your track record, but when it comes to $500,000 and up coins, I think you are right. Check out https://www.pcgs.com/news/pcgs-ultra-rarities-index-10-most-famous-coins ; that index probably tracts half million dollar coins better than the key dates and rarities index - and it is back to an all-time high after a big hit after 2008. Billionaires want "trophy coins" - that is, coins where you can say with confidence to your billionaire friends: "I have one and you don't." You can't say that with an "ordinary" rarity.

 

This has already been proven not to be true.
Sometimes the market goes up and silver and gold go up.
Sometimes the market goes down and silver and gold go down.
Sometimes the market goes up and silver and gold go down.
Sometimes the market goes down and silver and gold go up.
The market has been up 100 months in a row. ( 8 years+) Here is the 10 year chart for silver, from your statement it should point straight down.

 

There is nothing "for sure" in the various investment markets, especially that statement.

 

Wrong chart.

 

It's almost flat for 5 years.

 

Thanks. I feel better.

 

Gold chart last 10 years

 

It's lost almost half its value in 5 years, and that's in nominal dollars. In constant dollars, the drop would be even greater.

What are you looking at that looks "flat"? Can you double-check the labels along the bottom to see what years you're examining?

 

I suggest that we will learn very little from studying these charts from about the time of the meltdown. Stocks, bonds and precious metals were all skewed in a manner we may be waiting a long time to see again. Frankly, I hope it is a REAL long time.