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<p>[QUOTE="Morgan1878, post: 730143, member: 17869"]I only quoted the proverb, I don't claim to have the expertise to actually put it into practice. </p><p><br /></p><p>To answer your question, what market are we talking about? Commercial real estate, emerging market equities, gold? Each one is at a different point with respect to its lows and highs. </p><p><br /></p><p>What is often true about markets however is that they decline more than they should because fear becomes a factor and accelerates selling sending prices significantly below what the fundamentals would suggest is a reasonable price.</p><p><br /></p><p>Conversely, in a rising market, greed accelerates buying sending prices higher than the fundamentals would suggest the investment should deserve.</p><p><br /></p><p>Thus, the investor who buys above the bottom or sells before the top is acting at a point when he feels the market is being driven by facts rather than emotions since in his view the emotional variable creates a more unpredictable investing environment. Fear at the bottom and euphoria at the top make it difficult to make rational investment decisions. As an example, at the height of the real estate boom, there were many solicitations to attend seminars to learn the art of "flipping". The smart investor sees this and quietly folds his tepee before the cavalry arrives.</p><p><br /></p><p>You have to be aware of your own emotions and how they affect your investment decisions. You also have to see to what extent irrational forces are driving the market and act accordingly.I think that is what the quote intends to drive home. </p><p><br /></p><p>I also know from reading many of your posts that you are well aware of all of this.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Morgan1878, post: 730143, member: 17869"]I only quoted the proverb, I don't claim to have the expertise to actually put it into practice. To answer your question, what market are we talking about? Commercial real estate, emerging market equities, gold? Each one is at a different point with respect to its lows and highs. What is often true about markets however is that they decline more than they should because fear becomes a factor and accelerates selling sending prices significantly below what the fundamentals would suggest is a reasonable price. Conversely, in a rising market, greed accelerates buying sending prices higher than the fundamentals would suggest the investment should deserve. Thus, the investor who buys above the bottom or sells before the top is acting at a point when he feels the market is being driven by facts rather than emotions since in his view the emotional variable creates a more unpredictable investing environment. Fear at the bottom and euphoria at the top make it difficult to make rational investment decisions. As an example, at the height of the real estate boom, there were many solicitations to attend seminars to learn the art of "flipping". The smart investor sees this and quietly folds his tepee before the cavalry arrives. You have to be aware of your own emotions and how they affect your investment decisions. You also have to see to what extent irrational forces are driving the market and act accordingly.I think that is what the quote intends to drive home. I also know from reading many of your posts that you are well aware of all of this.[/QUOTE]
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