Discussion in 'Coin Roll Hunting' started by coloradobryan, Apr 3, 2015.
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zero. A roll hunter finds random coins that for all practical purposes have already been "searched" by the public at large (at least on the basis of silver vs. clad, or Wheaties vs. non-Wheaties) and this additional constraining factor precludes any statistical calculations.
You may be able to demonstrate mathematically that the odds of finding a 1916-D Mercury in a roll are 0.000000000000037%, but I will reply by asking how long you are willing to work for 3 cents per hour...
You also have the problem that some HUGE percentage of (U.S.) coins ever minted is no longer in circulation, thereby skewing your numbers into post-1958 or post-1964 coins. Now the grading companies can compute a Condition Census, and an average grade for submitted coins of a given date, but that has nothing to do with roll finds.
When I buy bulk silver (most of which appears unsearched, because bullion dealers don't have time to search it), I don't try to calculate how many Barbers I expect to find; if I find one, I think "great," throw it in my mayonnaise jar of Barbers, and move on. From buying considerable numbers of silver dimes, I have put together a set of Mercuries missing only the 1916-D and 1921-D, with many AU's after the middle 1930s; but I would no more do any calculations on those two dates than I would climb our flagpole and trill Cuckoo, Cuckoo.
Sorry, this is an idea whose time will never come.
@doug5353. It would be a massive waste of your time to try to build a spreadsheet of some sort for this.
Go through a mental list of some of the world's largest countries, and this is not true -- Great Britain, France, Germany, China, Russia, etc., etc.
Another interesting question is, how did obsolete coins (2c, 3c, half dime, 20c, etc.) disappear from circulation? A concentrated effort by the Treasury and the big city banks?
Those of you with discretionary income to buy coins probably don't realize the desperate situation of many households - a constant search for money, always alert for free food, the latest coupon, always rushing to curb alerts for junk.
CraigsList has lots of ads for "antiques" from the 1980s. A month ago, I saw an ad for "coins we brought back from Europe in 2002," some of them rare, $1 each, blah, blah, blah. You wouldn't have paid a dime apiece for most of them. I've seen old worn-out TYPEWRITERS offered at exotic prices, and original (huh?) hula hoops priced to the moon.
Generational change isn't doing us any favors. I agree it's a factor.
Not many people get paid at all for other forms of recreation. In fact most have to pay and some go in debt. You could watch TV instead of look through a pile of coins, and talk to your friends and coworkers for months and years about what you found instead of a couple days about a new commercial. To each his own.
I am not so concerned with roll hunters as I am with their effect on newbies, who may come to believe that roll hunting is another lucrative get-rich-quick scheme, whereas it's actually a stacked lottery.
I watch CNN, Austin City Limits, Charlie Rose, and the PBS Newshour, and that's about it, i.e., a news junkie. Just signed up with Netflix via Roku 3, so lots of movies in my future.
Watching the news is more depressing to me than finding nothing in a roll of coins.
Thought provoking post, which got me to thinking, does Treasury ever withdraw coinage as they do with bills? And if so, do they keep a record of dates, etc.?
There were about 42 million Flying Eagles minted in a 2-year period, and than an unprecedented surge in copper-nickel Indianheads, almost 160 million from 1859 to 1864. The question then evolves, did large cents circulate during the Civil War, during this massive production run? Maybe Q. David Bowers discusses this in his book, I have not read a copy yet.
The Redbook indicates that the Law of February 21, 1857 provided for the coinage of the new small cents, AND that Spanish and Mexican coins, and large cents and half cents, be "brought in" and exchanged for U.S. silver coins and the new small cents. How long did this take? The Redbook also states that by 1857, large cents and half cents were generally disliked, and circulated only in the large cities of the eastern United States, such as Boston, New York, Baltimore, and Philadelphia.
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Interesting and thought provoking for sure. My thinking is that there probably was not a time when large cents circulated alongside 1857 Flying Eagles. Thinking back to the mid-sixties, silver coinage disappeared from circulation rapidly, even though the clad replacements 'looked' the same. Image how much faster this process would have been if the new coins were different sizes, as was the case with the new cents and large cents? So my money goes with hoarding, otherwise why are large cents and half cents so plentiful today? I bet somewhere in a basement vault of Treasury is a report giving the details on how many or what weight of large and half cents were turned in. Any Treasury historians here?[/COLOR]
Well one way to get an idea as to the extent of the amount of circulation the last of the large cents saw would be the average amount of wear on the existing coins. I'm sure some circulated side by side with the new small cents for a while and were hoarded along with most other coins till the end of the civil war, and maybe circulated till at least the 1870s.
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