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Message:: [QUOTE="mrbrklyn, post: 444693, member: 4381"]Once again for you view pleasure.... <a href="http://www.coingrading.com/crackout1.html" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.coingrading.com/crackout1.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.coingrading.com/crackout1.html</a> High End vs. Low EndThe Bust-Out Game  Only a very tiny percentage of all coins in PCGS, NGC or other similar holders are likely to be graded higher by those services if broken out and resubmitted. A larger (though still relatively small) percentage, if broken out and resubmitted, are likely to be graded lower. This is because most of the coins on the market which the experts consider undergraded have already been resubmitted. Obviously, the more valuable a coin is, the more likely it is to have been resubmitted the optimal number of times to receive its ultimate grade.  To illustrate, let's imagine a coin which three graders out of ten would consider MS-65. The other seven would grade it MS-64. Based on probability statistics there is approximately a one in five chance that a random selection of 3 graders from this mix will result in at least 2 of the 3 graders grading the coin MS-65 thus insuring an MS-65 rating by PCGS or NGC. If the coin is worth $50 in MS-64 and $150 in MS-65, most dealers would just sell it in the MS-64 holder - possibly as a PQ But, if the coin is worth $300 in MS-64 and $1,000 in MS-65, chances are the dealer will resubmit it until the grading service finally grades it MS-65.  Needless to say, given the cost in time and fees of resubmissions, a dealer's ability to predict how other experts would grade a particular coin is very important to the bust-out game. Since the vast majority of coins would grade the same and some coins would grade lower only a few dealers can consistently make this a profitable venture. As an example, consider for a moment the above example. If one more person out of the 10 had graded the coin MS-64, this would have changed the odds to about one in eighteen, rendering most bust-out scenarios unprofitable.  Note: The consumer is probably not harmed by this, because the market takes this bust-out activity into account. Obviously, if a coin could never be broken out of a holder once sealed, MS-65's would be considerably rarer than they are now. The prices bid on the ANE system would be much higher as a result. Therefore, if a buyer purchases a coin based on the prices reported today on ANE (or any other sight-unseen bidding system), suffice it to say that he (or she) is only paying for a "low-end" coin that has most likely achieved its ultimate grade.  http://www.coingrading.com/author1.html About the Author  <img src="http://www.coingrading.com/graphics/halperin.jpg" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" />Jim Halperin was born in Boston, Massachusetts in 1952, and has been a professional numismatist since 1969, when he opened Jim's Stamp & Coin Shop, in Cochituate, Mass. He attended Harvard College, but took a leave of absence (which so far has turned out to be a permanent one) in 1971, halfway through his sophomore year, to become a full time coin dealer.     In late 1982, Jim Halperin moved to Dallas, Texas, to form a partnership with long time friend and arch-rival, Steve Ivy.     Jim Halperin and Steve Ivy's company, Heritage Capital Corporation, is now possibly the largest and certainly one of the most well respected coin and stamp firms in the world. It's divisions and affiliates include Heritage Rare Coin Galleries, Heritage Coin Wholesale, Heritage Numismatic Auctions, U.S. Rare Coin Exchange, Steve Ivy Philatelic Auctions, U.S. Tangible Investment Corporation and the Numismatic Certification Institute.     Jim is considered to be among the world's foremost experts on US. coins and coin grading. His other interests include late 19th and 20th century paintings and sculpture, art nouveau glass, comic art, weightlifting and racquetball. Jim currently lives near Dallas, Texas with his wife, Gayle, a professor of dance. They met in mid-1982 in New York City (appropriately at the Lone Star Cafe). Gayle had been dancing professionally for a modern dance company in New York City, and also taught at Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut. They have been blissfully married since 1984, and Gayle now teaches dance technique at Texas Woman's University.  Jim and Gayle have also set up a foundation based in Dallas to promote the teaching of daily health education courses in public schools.  This book's forerunner, the N.C.I. Grading Guide was Jim's first book, although he has written dozens of articles for numismatic publications. Jim hopes to write several other educational numismatic books, and is presently looking for ideas and suggestions of topics for his next book.  Any correspondence should be addressed to:  Jim Halperin3500 Maple Ave. 17th FloorDallas, TX 75219-3941e-mail: <a href="mailto:Jim@Heritageauctions.com">Jim@Heritageauctions.com</a>  [/QUOTE]

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