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<p>[QUOTE="World Colonial, post: 2402103, member: 78153"]I presume South Africa has taken a big hit from the recent commodity weakness and the collectors I know there claim this is the reason for the recent weakness in the coin market but I don't believe it.</p><p><br /></p><p>Unlike the US and a few other countries, the local collector base isn't large enough where there is any demonstrated correlation between economic conditions and the price level. My explanation for it is a combination of adoption of TPG, the run up in gold and silver prices and the prior national mania in the 2008 90th BD Mandela 5R (which accounts for over 50% of the 390,000+ coins in the NGC population report) created a (limited) bubble in Union and ZAR coins. Metals are in a bear market (for now) and the Mandela mania is over resulting in a "buyer's strike" and speculators dumping their "investments".[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="World Colonial, post: 2402103, member: 78153"]I presume South Africa has taken a big hit from the recent commodity weakness and the collectors I know there claim this is the reason for the recent weakness in the coin market but I don't believe it. Unlike the US and a few other countries, the local collector base isn't large enough where there is any demonstrated correlation between economic conditions and the price level. My explanation for it is a combination of adoption of TPG, the run up in gold and silver prices and the prior national mania in the 2008 90th BD Mandela 5R (which accounts for over 50% of the 390,000+ coins in the NGC population report) created a (limited) bubble in Union and ZAR coins. Metals are in a bear market (for now) and the Mandela mania is over resulting in a "buyer's strike" and speculators dumping their "investments".[/QUOTE]
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