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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;TheCavalier, post: 1516375, member: 39856&quot;]Just to quickly introduce myself, I recently got back into coin collecting after about a 10 year absence due to school/training. I started out as a type collector, but have recently started focusing on half dollars (especially through 1915).&nbsp; I&#039;ve been lurking here for a few months now, but never really had anything to contribute. </p><p><br /></p><p>Anyway, I thought this might be an interesting discussion topic.&nbsp; Whenever I find a coin that I like (especially with MS coins), I look at the PCGS Coinfacts pictures and I look through the PCGS auction archives to get a sense of what other coins in that year look like and what they sold for.&nbsp; One thing I&#039;ve seen repeatedly when looking at seated halves (probably my favorite series), is that the same coins come up over and over again, but they are in different holders.&nbsp; Obviously, the result of a crackout.&nbsp; Sometimes the coin looks identical and sometimes it&#039;s been dipped.&nbsp; Usually (thankfully?), the coin is still graded the same, but there are some upgrades.&nbsp; (I haven&#039;t really looked carefully for downgrades, but maybe they are also out there?)&nbsp; The first time I noticed this was with my 1869 half dollar, which is graded PCGS/CAC MS64.&nbsp; It&#039;s picture is on the Coinfacts site, but it has a different cert. number and is shown as an example of a MS63.&nbsp; (I actually paid closer to an MS63 price for the coin, so my discovery didn&#039;t really irk me or anything).</p><p><br /></p><p>Fast forward to today, when I was looking at Heritage&#039;s auction for next Tuesday.&nbsp; There is an 1876 PCGS MS65 (<a href="http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=131235&amp;lotNo=26741" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=131235&amp;lotNo=26741" rel="nofollow">http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=131235&amp;lotNo=26741</a>) that has the original look I like in seated halves, so I was looking through some auction archives and found that the exact coin had sold back in Heritage&#039;s April signature auction (<a href="http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?hdnJumpToLot=1&amp;saleNo=1169%20&amp;lotNo=4473&amp;x=0&amp;y=0#Photo" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?hdnJumpToLot=1&amp;saleNo=1169%20&amp;lotNo=4473&amp;x=0&amp;y=0#Photo" rel="nofollow">http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?hdnJumpToLot=1&amp;saleNo=1169 &amp;lotNo=4473&amp;x=0&amp;y=0#Photo</a>).&nbsp; Back then, the coin was graded NGC/CAC MS64 and sold for $1265 (w/ BP).&nbsp; The result of that one point upgrade (and switch in TPG?)?&nbsp; The current reserve with BP is over $3800, a potential $2500 appreciation in four months.&nbsp; Not too shabby!</p><p><br /></p><p>I don&#039;t have any really earth-shattering revelations, but I think this story does illustrate a few things that are repeated over and over on these boards by experienced posters:</p><p><br /></p><p>- As time goes on, the certified population numbers, especially for higher grades, are going to become more and more unreliable/meaningless.&nbsp; I&#039;ve noticed this with seated halves (which are pretty easy to identify an individual coin), but I&#039;m sure it&#039;s true for most series.</p><p><br /></p><p>- When looking for a coin it&#039;s often advisable to try to find the &quot;sweet spot&quot; in the grading spectrum (especially if you&#039;re a beginner).&nbsp; In other words, buy at a grade before a huge price jump.&nbsp; For a lot of series, this jump happens after MS63/64.</p><p><br /></p><p>- Buy the coin, not the slab.&nbsp; If you focus on eye-appealing, problem free coins, you&#039;ll be ahead of the pack (even if you don&#039;t plan on playing the crackout game).</p><p><br /></p><p>- Looking through auction archives is highly encouraged.&nbsp; In addition to being a more reliable price guide than &quot;real&quot; price guides, you get to see what other coins are out there for that date.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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