I don't know a whole lot about economics, but it seems the price of PM's shot up quite a bit after the 2007-8 rescission. If our economy was to improve, would the prices of PM's go down?
2008 they went down because there was a mad scramble for liquidity. So, people had to sell assets like PM to gain dollars which were desperately needed elsewhere. So a comparison to today is not really applicable. My answer is IDK. Stocks rising it appears has put a damper on PM prices, or it could be the news from Europe. My fear for PM prices would be if relatively safe bonds started yielding more than 1 or 2 percent. I believe quite a few people are in PM as a safety investment, and if bonds looked more appealing I would be afraid there would be a selloff of PM. As it is, I am just watching right now. I have been wanting to buy some of world gold coins just for fun, and if it dips down low enough I might just have to pull the trigger. Just common stuff like a Mexican type set, and some European 19th gold coins.
I believe it is the strength in the dollar that is causing the basic issue with PMs. An improving economy that increases demand for dollars would be one factor as would money fleeing European banks for American banks and being converted into dollars. And are probably others.
And you know what Tim? There are probably 100 other scenarios that could play out. Problem with economics is there are literally millions of variables. Any one of which can completely change how everything plays out. What if there were technical issues and strikes at 5 of the world's top silver mines at once? You want to see $50 silver in an awful dang hurry that would do it. So could a lot of things. Its a fun game to play, but way too complicated for me to predict much more than very long term I believe PM will follow some combination of oil and inflation. Other than that I simply hedge my bets and do not get too reliant on any one area of investing. I had no "skill" in buying silver at $4, I simply spread some money around, and bought silver because I love silver. No one would have any "skill" if tomorrow silver went to $100, just like they wouldn't have been "stupid" if silver crashed to $1 an ounce tomorrow either.
