Buying expensive coins

Oh I completely agree with ancients, but there are always multiple lots competing for the saved dollars and it can be hard to decide what to bid on.

The recent buying spree was a series of koban and one silver piece. Now I'm relatively skunked on money for the ancients auctions. Though I'll still bid and if I'm so lucky as to win, I'll take it from the general house fund temporarily.

 

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Most any high dollar purchase should first be viewed as if you already own it. Being a coin, vehicle, house, whatever it may be. Pretend you already own it and YOU want to sell it in a reasonable amount of time. What can you get for it? This puts the item in an entirely different focus because most of the time its very difficult getting proper value out of something you're selling. Anything can be sold in a day at a yard sale if you want to be ripped off.

This puts you in the frame of mind you need to be in. Don't look at it as something you're looking to obtain but something you want to sell right now. It's nuts how it can really adjust your view.

I'd love to buy a new truck. In 2000 I just started working and I did. Bought brand new. While it was expensive, it wasn't life altering. Today, making over 3x where I started at, a new truck is like a pipe dream. I don't even have to pretend what it drops to if I own it. I can do the math.
With dealer mark up, destination charge (as expensive as a used car), fees, and taxes (another used car price equivalent), it would literally cost $11,700 to purchase a mid level truck today before you spend a penny on the actual vehicle! But don't worry, they'll give you $1k cash back to make up for it. lol

So despite desiring one, my mind short circuits and I do nothing. If I drive it off the lot, I eat that 11,700 and nobody cares that I did. That doesn't go towards the value. It surprise me that anybody, regardless of income level is willing to eat that much up front (this isn't even including finance charges and maintenance), but a lot of people are so people must have a lot more money to burn than me.

When it comes to a four figure coin, that's really just a want. I guess it depends on who you're trying to impress. Some people would be impressed with the $325 version and you may be just as happy with it depending on how important grade was for that particular example. David Bowers talks about optimum collecting grade for every coin. There are some coins that gradually go up in price and then sky rocket at a certain level. If doable, you usually want to target the grade that's just before the huge price increase in value as it may be very close to that next level for much, much less cost. And that will likely be the next level to increase drastically in value if any of them will. It's fun to check out. You should check out the same for that coin and see what the optimum collector grade would be value wise to grade.

 

The 21-D half being an in demand lower mintage option is steep across the board. But the optimal collector grade by the above criteria according to NGCs price guide is VF. Because the XF doubles in value. It won't be as nice as the AU-58 but it depends on your financial situation how comfortable you are taking it to that level. NGC has only graded 21 of them in AU-58 and the price listed is $8750 so that's roughly where the dealer is on it. There's only just under 200 examples graded higher by NGC. So that's what you're paying for.
The next thing I checked was the price history on that example. This is a fairly recent value on these at this grade. In 2007 the price guide listed it at $3,330. So in 15 years this coin has more than doubled in value. It'll be up to you to decide if if you think it could double again or settle back down to historic levels.
With only 21 examples in that grade, they dont change hands very often to create the data so how much weight can you put into the new price level in acutallity. Sure maybe some have sold at that level in the last 15 years but it isn't based on hundreds of sale. More likely a handful of sales. Now granted, they have to use something to produce the data so you can't blame them but I'm guessing it doesn't take much to swing the data one way or the other on those. It comes down to what are you willing to pay. Price guide is a guide. The dealer wants every penny they can get.

 

Sorry you have that problem. I’m a saver and that’s about all I do. I pay my bills and save. I have 4 savings accounts. One is for coins, then rocks, minerals and fossils, antiques and the fourth, well that covers everything else, including emergencies. I set a limit at auctions and you can’t get me to budge another dollar. When I say no more, that’s exactly what I mean. You gotta have discipline in certain things. I also have the patience of an oyster. They work well for me.

 

I'm so sorry to hear about your grandson. Words cannot express the sorrow I feel for you, your daughter and your entire family.

RIP

 

I have plenty of discipline saving, that's not the issue. I also separate my savings by type, and if the finite "coin account" is used, I advance myself what will be replaced in it within 2-4 months. For what I collect, you get what you can when you can. Otherwise, you may not get it ever. I collect ancients and more esoteric and eclectic material, for which you may only see a suitable example every several years, if you are lucky, sometimes much longer.