Buying a coin with future pricing in mind

Ok, I've engaged in some coin speculation before and mostly lost $$$ on it's future price, which is ok, as those were done several years ago and I knew a lot less than I know now, as well as most of those I bought more for enjoyment than specifically because I was gambling with the idea that I thought it had a good or excellent chance of increasing in value. Also, some of my 'winners' helped ease my losses alot.

Well, this week, I pulled the trigger on eBay for a coin that has as it's sole purpose for me to make a good profit on. For less than a hundred, I got a 2017 P dime, MS68FB (PCGS) This is on speculation that maybe, even in less than 10 years, it's value as a high end business strike may be significantly higher. Right now PCGS only lists 7 at this grade and FB designation, so obviously some of what I'm speculating on is going to be connected to how many become available in the future. But I seriously am doubting, barring a huge market fallout in modern US coinage, that I will ultimately lose in this one. Looking at modern coins, many times the very high grades either just don't appear that often, or if they do they are already jumping in price, so for speculative purposes they may be at the wrong point to buy.

And maybe I will later choose to CAC it if I think after examining it that it stands a chance.

Please vote if you have ever done something like this.

 

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Wow, pretty dangerous to me. Betting on condition rarity of such a piece sounds risky, but its your hobby.

I buy some things not really because it might be more expensive, but because I may never get another chance. I just bought two more like my avatar, (slightly different styles, mints, etc). I didn't "need" them, but like them, and they do not come up for sale very often at a reasonable, (sub $1000) level.

 

I am reading Pleasure & Profit: 100 Lessons for Building and Selling a Collection of Rare Coins by Robert W Shippee (2nd edition), review to follow in a day or so... But for now: his experience is that there is no interest in the highest grade certified modern coins. He bought them to complete his PCGS Registery Set in order to auction it (The Waccabuc Collection), and though he raked in the loot on classic coins, he lost money on the moderns. His adventure was a short-term turn around of ten years or less.

As they say, your mileage may vary.

 

I do it often, because I think wow,, I like it, and they are relatively inexpensive to collect modern coins.

 

Im starting to see a lot more pl dimes. I haven't bought one yet.

 

I thought CAC wouldn’t even look at moderns.
And no, I wouldn’t do it with a coin struck after I was born.

 

Well, I guess I don't know all that much about CAC. I have a couple but have never sent one in. No plans to anytime soon.

 

I rarely ever bought a coin specifically with the expectation that it will increase in value down the road. The few times that I did, I was lucky that I didn't lose anything when I sold them, but those were not modern coins.

Personally, I would rather buy Mint bags of same date/mm quarter, half dollar or dollar coins to sort through for the high grades to submit for grading. When they are the same date/mm, it is much easier to compare one coin against the others. Out of a submission of 50+ coins, if you can get a dozen or more to grade MS68, you'll make out like a bandit on the "flip" side.

Chris

 

Here you go buy another one … $50 ( yukk to me though )

https://www.ebay.com/itm/2017-P-10C...709091?hash=item2ac9873a23:g:ehMAAOSw1UdcYwoH

 

lol heres one

 

What's with the Capuchin? Are you leading a troop of them, now?

Chris

 

When one deciedes to get involved in numastic's one needs to qualify are they a collector or are they a dealer? Now over years the two can interchange....but one needs to know a collector collects and rarely parts with the treasures masked.
Now of course we all well most have flipped an coin related item. But the op question is buying something to sell and profit rather than to be apart of their collection.
How ever speculating in coins one must know what they are doing as like other items or property coins can and do at times loose money!
For what ever reason or reasons the can loose value.
So no I've have made a few bucks and good trades...as well lost some.
I'm going to say at the end if you're anywhere near "even " you done well.....
But if you truly enjoy your collection the value is priceless!

 

Speculating on future price appreciation is tough. There are many coins that I think should appreciate in value but seem to simply hold value. I am happy with holding a store of value, and I buy a coin based on if I think it is a good value today.
If it appreciates, that's a bonus.

 

Moderns, with some exceptions, have not performed well in the long term (from what I've seen and experienced). Flipping early has often been the way people make money on these items (for instance, when something hot is released by the US Mint, prices tend to peak soon after a sell-out, plateau for a bit, and then start dropping).

I've tried a few times with keeping moderns for longer periods, and have learned that many will not go up (examples include: a low mintage proof Kennedy that didn't change much and I ended up breaking even a few years after purchasing; the 2010 5 oz ATB Pucks, the 2016 Liberty Medals, and a few other special sets).

 

The problem with top pops is that more are certified, and the value decreases. This happens 100% of the time.

 

As for my collection, I don’t care about appreciation in value. I care about the story attached to the coin. However, I don’t like losing money when I ever sell my coins, so I heavily take into consideration buying quality coins at the right price as well as avoiding coin groups that have historically done poorly (top pops, for example). I have been very successful as a result.

 

Perfect timing. May 6th was Gordon Gekko's birthday. "Greed is good."

I believe a lot of collectors speculate in coins. They just won't admit it in public, or to themselves.

 

I don’t know how much you paid for this, but it’s often financially dangerous to get involved with modern coins “on the ground floor” before the grading has had a chance to shake out. Given that the date is 2017, there is plenty of time for more coins to crop up and dilute the market, therefore lowing the price. All you are betting upon is conditional rarity because the mintage, as we all know, is over a billion pieces.

Another factor to consider is that NGC does not have the market power in the modern coin market that PCGS does. Just for the fun of it, I bought a modern NGC graded Jefferson nickel in PR-70 just to say that I had one 70 graded coin in my NGC registry type collection. It was cheap because it was in an NGC holder. If it had been in a PCGS holder, it would have been a lot more expensive. The only market for these coins is with the registry collectors who are fighting to be #1.

As for my last “dumb buy” because I thought that it would be a place to park some money, was a 1925 $20 gold in NGC MS-64. To date, I’m down about $400 at least.