Rabone, I understand your point. But the examples you use are the exceptions to the rule rather than the rule. For every example you can point to like the '99 sets or the '95-W ASE - I can point to a hundred that did not perform. The author has a valid point, speaking in general terms, coins issued prior to 1964 perform far better than those minted after '64 in regard to profit potential. It's a simple fact and easy for anyone to confirm. Now perhaps in the future this will not be the case. But it has already been 44 years since 1964 and it has proved to be the case ever since then. Now, all of that being said - I used to collect moderns. But I did so because I liked them, not because I ever expected to have any profit. However, there were some cases where I did. Like the '95-W set you mentioned along with a few others.
Yes, he does have a point. However, my point is to try and show how many (or percentage) of collectors today can afford the kind of coins he is talking about? When you take a total population of coins, and cull it down to a series that have 2000 or less graded coins, you are talking about ultra high dollar coins. My point is that the everyday "Joe" collector cannot, nor ever hope to, obtain these types of coins. My other point was to try and show that if you are collecting for profit, there is the chance that you can make a profit, and sometimes a very handsome profit, from modern Mint issues. Now, if you buy 5 of everything, yes, you are going to collect a lot of stuff that will never gain the kinds of profits I pointed out. But how many modern collectors thought to themselves in November of 2004... "Hmmmm, I think the uncirculated mint set is going to be a real deal, so I need to buy 10 more sets..."? Over 400% in 3 years is not too shabby. Said another way, you have to do some homework. And make educated decisions. And even then they can blow up in your face.
i agree if one is chasing only coins that are less than 2000 and hoping to complete a collection you either have to be very rich or very stupid. before starting a series one should always keep in mind the availability and the chance of being able to complete that series. i wasn't able to buy a barber half very recently for $2k although the price should have been closer to 1200 coz the other guy just wanted to complete his collection. the modern coins from the mint should be collected and enjoyed for what they are. if one tries to make a profit than its no longer a hobby its a business and any business can make profits and losses one just has to live with it