Buy the Keys First

I have often heard people give the advice to new collectors to a series to buy the keys first, but the wisdom of this escapes me. With the poll here, I'd like to see what the general consensus actually is. Please explain your answer.

Personally I've found most series have some quirks with strike, surfaces, or toning characteristics. These quirks make a series unique enough that you shouldn't buy a high dollar coin until you are familiar with the series.

The way I approach a new series, and advise others to do the same, is to buy some circulated examples of common dates. Study them, get a feel for whether or not you really enjoy the series enough to invest a lot of money and time into it. Then pick up some books and study them further. Figure out your target grade for the series (the grade at which you find the coin has good eye appeal and you can afford it). Target low hanging fruit first (common dates) and move up to the semi-keys and tackle the keys last. This way you are purchasing your higher dollar coins when you have the knowledge about the series to properly evaluate them, and you are much more likely to find an appealing example that you won't feel you need to upgrade later.

 

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I've said pretty much the same thing for years. I have come to the idea that one shouldn't necessarily buy the keys last, however. While I would definitely recommend waiting until one has some experience with a series before buying the most expensive ones I would get them in the middle rather than last. That way you get them after learning the idiosyncrasies of the series but still are able to get them before they continue to go up in price.

 

You should not buy the keys until you know the series very well, like collecting the series, and know how to spot fakes.

They don’t have to be the last coins you buy, but it’s best to have experience before buying them.

Just IMO

 

I don't disagree. While I said last above, I mean as it applies to actively seeking out keys to buy, because that's where you can go wrong (especially if you can't spot a fake). Having said that, if a beautiful example of a key date presents itself at a good price you shouldn't pass it up, provided you have the experience in the series to properly evaluate it. In the main series I collect, for example, I ended up buying a pair of big keys at a significant bargain before I had all the common dates in my target grade.

 

Wholeheartedly agree. When a person becomes intrigued say by a few Mercury dimes left to them. More often than not they are younger beginners. The excitement of plugging holes at five bucks a hole outweigh the concerns of finding a spare five hundred dollars to plug the 16-D hole.

Only other way I could justify going the other way is if a person found themselves in possession of a key date and built a set from there.

I am confident that with a newer collector anyways, the way to go is common dates first. Build their knowledge have a supply base established by the time they want to plug the key date holes.

 

Don't forget keys like the 1950-D nickel, 1970-D and S half, and 1999 silver proof set, all of which have gone down in value from their peaks, even in nominal dollars (i.e. not adjusting for inflation).

I'm a little sad at having paid $80 for a 1999 silver set; I've seen them cheaper since. I'd be a LOT sadder if I'd "bought it first" when it was $400.

No coins -- not keys, not whales -- are guaranteed to appreciate over time. On the other hand, if you're patient and study, you can guarantee that your knowledge of a series will increase over time, and that'll make you a more powerful buyer.

 

The reason for the "buy the keys first" advice was that for decades keys went more more by percentage every year than average coins do. However, it really is advice for experienced collectors, like "hey, I completed my Morgan set and am looking at getting into barber quarters, any advice?". One, it makes collectors come to grips with the price of the keys up front, and maybe choose barber halves instead of quarters, and two it was a way to "lock in" the price of the keys so they do not become unaffordable in the future.

Having said that, this is ASSUMING keys will continue to go up more than the rest of the series. As modern collectors get into more modern issues, type sets, etc. this is not a bet I would be willing to make. In fact, I think the old "keys" that old men like us know by heart, (09s VDB, 1877 cent, 1916d dime, 1916 quarter, 01s quarter, etc) are horribly overpriced versus real scarcity and are really precariously priced. In fact, I could see each of them cheaper in 20 years than today. How many younger (in our hobby sub-40) collectors do you really find pursuing these sets nowadays? The demand for these are that they are pronounced "key", so many people think they are the "best". However, the hobby has forgotten these coins are ONLY desired if you have tens of thousands of collectors wanting to complete a date/mm set. Take that demand away, and a 1916d dime is actually fairly common.

 

I believe this is a very accurate statement. I am late to the CT party and have been astounded since I been here that younger collectors seem to be drawn so strongly towards the error side of numismatics. It wasn't all that long ago when I plugged my 09-S, VDB and 16-D holes in my albums. Those coins carry the premiums that they do because they are legendary to my generation that spent a lifetime dreaming of owning them. I would bet you are spot on. Twenty years from now I bet you could pick them up for half what they are valued at today. Simply because interest is elsewhere.

 

Absolutely do not even consider buying the keys first. This is a great way to loose money.

 

That's such a narrow application though. You'd need to be an advanced collector that is also somehow an expert on a series you haven't yet collected. I'm not convinced this is a very realistic scenario.

I was already an advanced collector in general and with Austro-Hungarian coins before I got into my korona set, but I was well into the set before I had seen enough examples to know that the 1912 and 1913 (one of the three big keys for the Hungarian types) issues were always weakly struck in the beard, to recognize the variety of original looks in the series, and to be able to definitively spot altered dates for the big key (1906). It also took a while to realize how rare the big keys actually were versus their mintage numbers, and to get a feel for their true market value.

 

There is another side to the above good advice. Provided someone just entering the hobby had the money to pursue the keys first, would it not be okay as long as they bought them slabbed by a reputable TPG? This would lock them in at current values and then they could pursue the rest of the series. It was different for me with a limited amount of money back in 1966 when I started and there were no TPG's back then. If there had been I would have been far and away much better off with the prices keys went for then and have had a much bigger smile on my face today.

 

I am all for buying the keys in general, But I have left a few relatively popular and available, although expensive, for my son to fill in if he wishes after I go to the quantum world. Jim

 

If, (and its a big if), they know enough to avoid fake slabs. The problem with slabs is they take the coin away from examination, so lots of things you might do to verify authenticity you cannot do to a slabbed coin. I have seen pictures from China of a box full of 1877 IHC in PCGS or NGC, (cannot remember which) "slabs". Faking a slab and the hologram is probably much easier than faking the coin convincingly.

 

And it's only going to get easier with time. And what will that (the increasing quality of fakes, making them harder to detect) do to the market for real coins?

 

Yes, of course and I was probably too loose with the post. I was thinking more along the lines of buying at a B&M shop from a reputable dealer who could verify the authenticity of the slab, some sort of provenance/verification. I would not recommend doing this online, especially for a newbie. Thanks for bringing up fake slabs.

 

In addition to the great points already made in this thread, I would like to add that the key dates are often the most overgraded in the entire series. No other coin will require the patience that key date will require. For some series, this may mean waiting for years for the right coin to come to either the auction or retail market. Rushing the process will usually result in obtaining a coin that you will ultimately be unhappy with and may have to attempt to upgrade later on.

 

This is more disturbing than the fake coins in my mind. Wonder what happens if you plug the number into the TPG website?

 

Absolutely. I have seen 1877 IHCs in PCGS VF20 holders that would grade F12 at best, even considering weak strikes. Know how to grade your series before you buy key dates, and PCGS is not infallible.

They usually copy it from a genuine coin. They aren’t usually THAT dumb, but make sure to check.

 

If I bought all of the 'keys' in the 'classic commemoratve' series, I'd still be down to 142........It's fun to 'enjoy' and it's fun to collect, but one can not get to serious in doing so, because you loose the 'joy' of collecting. The 'keys' will still be there when you come back looking for them........

 

It could be a match or you could get an error message such as “invalid certification number”. If it matches, you’ll still have to take a close look at the coin...