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<p>[QUOTE="EWC3, post: 3231753, member: 93416"]I studied this about 20 years back, and found there was no general consensus. It seems clear that the amount mined in any one year is rather trivial compared with the pre-existing stocks, but less clear is the question - if mines stop producing, how long it takes for societies in general to start to run out, and indeed, if this running out was ever in reality the cause of the so called “bullion famines”.</p><p><br /></p><p>Fernand Braudel (hailed as the world’s greatest historian by some) back around 1950 laid great stress on the effects of new mined silver on economies. He pushed it to absurd limits – suggesting to the reader that a return to silver coin use in India around 1540 was something to do with the finding of silver at Potosi in 1545! Actually it was reading that nonsense that set me up studying the matter. The truth was clearly that lots of hoarded silver was in India already in 1540. Sher Shah was busy conquering a new kingdom, and he had ideas about the economy very similar to Adam Smith - that trade and markets were a good thing. He captured several state treasuries and rapidly coined all the silver to put it into circulation. Probably all his coin was from hoarded silver, perhaps much of it ultimately brought from Persia and Rome centuries or millennia earlier.</p><p><br /></p><p>(Note that the Afghan MZ II hoard which was certainly deposited around 100 AD or later, contained lots of coins from all previous centuries back to 400 BC. Hoarding takes place in all societies, but especially in India.)</p><p><br /></p><p>I thought the best guy on this was Andrew Murray Watson in the 1960’s. Building on his ideas, it seemed to me the same silver was to a great extent recycled, and moved around according to the political ideas of different societies. The Arabs won a great deal of silver when they took Persia. They were keen on trade and commerce, and struck a great deal of coins from it in the 8th century, but issues became sporadic over the 9th and 10th centuries, and then stopped most places. Under Turks, Islam seem to move away from commerce back to something much more like general serfdom. They did not need the silver any more, so sent much of it to the Vikings. The Vikings were just getting into commerce big style and were very keen to get it. The Vikings transformed into Normans, and spread a commercial zeal into old Europe which anyhow had started to abandon serfdom and strike more coins.</p><p><br /></p><p>How much of this silver started out in Sasanid Persia and ended up in medieval Europe via Russia and the Vikings? I do not think anyone has any idea! Its the sort of suggestion that Pirenne was pushing at the start of the 20th century. And Watson in the 1960’s. But Braudellians like Peter Spufford and John Day heavily promoted the opposite idea through the 1970’s and 1980’s that most silver was new stuff from mines, and so called bullion famines came about pretty rapidly once mines stopped producing. I was one of a few heretics back then that thought they over egged that pudding.</p><p><br /></p><p>I noticed since 2000 an Israeli (Nathan Sussman) seemed to be turning things on their head again, arguing that there was never any real shortage of silver in Europe in the 14th and 15th centuries – there was a kind of push back towards serfdom, and so the silver just got hoarded.</p><p><br /></p><p>Ed’s links to Wikipedia underline to me the dire straits modern popular knowledge is getting into in 2018.</p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Bullion_Famine" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Bullion_Famine" rel="nofollow">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Bullion_Famine</a></p><p><br /></p><p>He concludes “Europe ran out of silver in the 15th century “ Well, Europe certainly stopped striking silver coins in the mid century. And his conclusion is certainly in line with Spufford and Day. But ignores the ideas of Watson and Sussman, that the silver was to a great extent hoarded, or exported under policies that discouraged commerce by ordinary folk.</p><p><br /></p><p>More worrying - the Wiki writer is probably correct about an African origin for most later medieval European gold. But then cites as his source a guy writing a book called “The Semiotics of Self” Aargh!!!</p><p><br /></p><p>So – what can I say? I maybe have my own prejudices on this matter, but am sure all the experts I found had prejudices too.</p><p><br /></p><p>Thanks Doug for raising it – it seems to me a vital question - but I judge nobody knows the answer to it.</p><p><br /></p><p>Rob T[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="EWC3, post: 3231753, member: 93416"]I studied this about 20 years back, and found there was no general consensus. It seems clear that the amount mined in any one year is rather trivial compared with the pre-existing stocks, but less clear is the question - if mines stop producing, how long it takes for societies in general to start to run out, and indeed, if this running out was ever in reality the cause of the so called “bullion famines”. Fernand Braudel (hailed as the world’s greatest historian by some) back around 1950 laid great stress on the effects of new mined silver on economies. He pushed it to absurd limits – suggesting to the reader that a return to silver coin use in India around 1540 was something to do with the finding of silver at Potosi in 1545! Actually it was reading that nonsense that set me up studying the matter. The truth was clearly that lots of hoarded silver was in India already in 1540. Sher Shah was busy conquering a new kingdom, and he had ideas about the economy very similar to Adam Smith - that trade and markets were a good thing. He captured several state treasuries and rapidly coined all the silver to put it into circulation. Probably all his coin was from hoarded silver, perhaps much of it ultimately brought from Persia and Rome centuries or millennia earlier. (Note that the Afghan MZ II hoard which was certainly deposited around 100 AD or later, contained lots of coins from all previous centuries back to 400 BC. Hoarding takes place in all societies, but especially in India.) I thought the best guy on this was Andrew Murray Watson in the 1960’s. Building on his ideas, it seemed to me the same silver was to a great extent recycled, and moved around according to the political ideas of different societies. The Arabs won a great deal of silver when they took Persia. They were keen on trade and commerce, and struck a great deal of coins from it in the 8th century, but issues became sporadic over the 9th and 10th centuries, and then stopped most places. Under Turks, Islam seem to move away from commerce back to something much more like general serfdom. They did not need the silver any more, so sent much of it to the Vikings. The Vikings were just getting into commerce big style and were very keen to get it. The Vikings transformed into Normans, and spread a commercial zeal into old Europe which anyhow had started to abandon serfdom and strike more coins. How much of this silver started out in Sasanid Persia and ended up in medieval Europe via Russia and the Vikings? I do not think anyone has any idea! Its the sort of suggestion that Pirenne was pushing at the start of the 20th century. And Watson in the 1960’s. But Braudellians like Peter Spufford and John Day heavily promoted the opposite idea through the 1970’s and 1980’s that most silver was new stuff from mines, and so called bullion famines came about pretty rapidly once mines stopped producing. I was one of a few heretics back then that thought they over egged that pudding. I noticed since 2000 an Israeli (Nathan Sussman) seemed to be turning things on their head again, arguing that there was never any real shortage of silver in Europe in the 14th and 15th centuries – there was a kind of push back towards serfdom, and so the silver just got hoarded. Ed’s links to Wikipedia underline to me the dire straits modern popular knowledge is getting into in 2018. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Bullion_Famine[/url] He concludes “Europe ran out of silver in the 15th century “ Well, Europe certainly stopped striking silver coins in the mid century. And his conclusion is certainly in line with Spufford and Day. But ignores the ideas of Watson and Sussman, that the silver was to a great extent hoarded, or exported under policies that discouraged commerce by ordinary folk. More worrying - the Wiki writer is probably correct about an African origin for most later medieval European gold. But then cites as his source a guy writing a book called “The Semiotics of Self” Aargh!!! So – what can I say? I maybe have my own prejudices on this matter, but am sure all the experts I found had prejudices too. Thanks Doug for raising it – it seems to me a vital question - but I judge nobody knows the answer to it. Rob T[/QUOTE]
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