Bidding Strategy in 2020

My strategy is to bid live or as late as I can. That means some 4AM days, but what am I gonna do while holed up. I hope you have great luck the rest of the year.

I bid what I am willing to pay when I calculate total cost to me. That includes hammer price, buyer's fee, taxes, export fees, postage, bank charges for currency exchange, etc. If someone is willing to bid more or the start price is too high, I dust off my feet and move on. I do not find most of what I want in dealer stock on line or at coin shows.

I bought a scale weight with a face in May in a lot of 7 weights. The same lot was unsold last year, but I did not see the lot before the auction closed. This year I paid 2.5 times the minimum because I wanted the face weight. At least one other bidder missed the auction last year and we made 9 bids before the dust setteled. I do not think the market improved. I think at least two bidders did not see the lot last year.

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Auction house estimates are usually meaningless. I suspect their estimates are low so they can advertise that their auctions routinely outperform the estimates.

My strategy is never bid until the auction is about to close. Premature bidding inflates the price & provides opportunity to be outbid.

For "common" coins like, say a Zeno solidus, most bidders will know what it's worth. The auction price will rise to reasonable value, and there comes a point where the next increment will bring the price to retail level (taking into account those stupid buyer's fees!). Be the last bidder before the next increment is retail.

For less common high-demand coins like, say a high quality Julius Caesar portrait denarius, it's really hard to say what to bid. You need to want the coin more than everyone else, and there's no bargains to be had with these coins.

 

Keep in mind that while I have certain interests, I am a magpie collector and I'll always find something whenever I'm in the mood to acquire a coin. My collecting style is the opposite of investors: I would rather have ten $50 dollar coins than a single $500 coin. I'm also not too picky about grade. I know I'm not going to recover my "investment" on the majority of them. I collect because I enjoy the hobby.

So take my strategy with these caveats in mind.

I typically bid such that about 1/4 to 1/3 of my bids are successful. I figure that's about right -- if I'm winning every lot, I'm overpaying; if I lose every lot, I'm being unrealistic. I bid what I am willing to pay and wait for the invoice.

Occasionally, I'll bid crazy on a coin that I simply "had to have." I'll take a loss on these coins, I'm sure.

I don't generally bid in high-end auctions. You know the ones -- the ones with the Greek decadrachms and the Roman aureii. I participate in the ones with the VF denarii and the interesting but low-end Roman provincial coins. I know how to attribute my coins and I don't need the auctioneer identifying every lot for me.

Every once in a while I'll pick up an unrecognized rarity -- and by that I mean a coin that may be only the fourth of fifth known example, and I'm not talking about flyspeck varieties, either. When it does come time to sell, though, I'll consign these to knowledgeable, high-end firms who will advertise them as the rarities they are, such as CNG, Berk, and yes, Heritage.

I don't worry about the process much. I win some, I lose some, I overpay on some but get some bargains along the way. It all comes out in the wash, I think.

 

Of course! Wouldn't you like to know the 'deal' on that upcoming Brutus Aureus? An auction house could pay the seller more than the buyer's fee and still profit from the advertising you get from selling a world record coin. Things are different on coins that bring $60+fees and have to pay a $40 minimum per lot fee.

 

I pay little attention to estimates. Grade is all that matters these days (been that way for a long time). Mid and lower grade coins simply do not sell especially imperial bronze and provincial coins. Fine by me I look for rarities in lesser affordable grades but even these are hard to find.

I have heard that there are fewer and fewer collectors of ancient coins but I do not see that much of interest for sale anywhere - what happened to the enormous number of coins that came in from Eastern Europe in the late 90’s and early timid 2000’s - thousands upon thousands of coins were sold but where did all the coins go!? I don’t get it what happened to all the coins?

 

My impression is the opposite - a huge quantity of coins comes onto the market every week. There are more coins available than i have time to review. But I wasn't collecting in the late 90s and early 2000s, so I have nothing to compare this to.