Bid Sniping

Discussion in 'Coin Chat' started by Duke Kavanaugh, Feb 24, 2012.

  1. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    I hit the "Place bid" button with maybe a minute to go.

    eBay pops up a dialog box where I type in my amount, and then hit the "Place bid" button.

    eBay pops up another dialog, displaying my bid amount, with a "Confirm bid" button -- and a countdown timer showing how many seconds are left.

    I watch until only a second or two is left, and then I hit "Confirm bid".

    If I'm lucky -- if nobody along the routing chain between me and eBay drops a packet that then needs to be retransmitted -- my request arrives within a fraction of a second, and BANG, I have sniped. eBay may show the time of my bid as two seconds before auction end, or one second before, or even zero seconds before, depending on network latency and server load.

    If I'm unlucky, my system has to retransmit one of those packets, or the server is a little too heavily loaded, and the request doesn't get processed until after the auction has closed.

    The thing is, it doesn't matter whether "my end" is me sitting at a Web browser, me running a desktop sniping tool, or some sniping facility running on a server somewhere else in the country. In every case, the longer you wait to launch that request, the more likely it is that you'll miss your window.

    The sniping service I use defaults to bidding six seconds before auction end. I've set it to five seconds, and had it work. I've set it to four seconds, and found to my dismay that it didn't bid, instead reporting "there might not be enough time to bid safely". (I keep meaning to contact them about that -- if they aren't willing to place a bid with a smaller interval, it would be really peachy to tell me when I try to set up the snipe, not after the auction ends.) The snipes it does place usually show up six seconds before auction close, but sometimes closer, because of the uncertainties I described above.

    This is not high-frequency trading! This is not a game of milliseconds. This is people and programs using Web interfaces to send requests on a timescale of seconds.

    And, as you claim to understand, it doesn't matter who gets there first -- unless two bidders enter the exact same amount, which isn't that common, because many bidders enter an odd amount to make it less likely. All that matters is that there isn't enough time for a human to see the higher bid, think "they must know something I don't" or "maybe I do want this enough to spend an extra five bucks", and raise his bid in turn.

    We "wish to call" it sniping because that's what "sniping" means in this context, and has meant for going on fifteen years.

    You can be Humpty Dumpty if you want, insisting that a word means just what you choose it to mean. But if you want to be seen as a champion of correct usage, you'll want to start by showing some evidence that your definition is correct. I've already posted evidence that it's not. If you can present compelling evidence that it is, I'll certainly change my tune.
     
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  3. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Oh, for heaven's sake.

    What do you think language is? It's a set of symbols or sounds, arranged according to a grammar, with meanings mutually understood by the people using it. You don't get to change the meaning of a word, then insist that your meaning is correct and only "group think" is preventing others from realizing it. That's not how language works.

    I honestly am trying to figure out where you're coming from on this. It sounds like you have some notion that the sniping programs actually react in response to other last-minute bids, more quickly than a human can. That's not the way it works. They simply launch a bid request at a scheduled time. They can adhere to the schedule more rigorously than a human pushing a button, but that doesn't make any difference.
     
  4. lucyray

    lucyray Ariel -n- Tango

    Looks to me like the sniping going on here is the kind done with words! Duck Krispy!
     
  5. krispy

    krispy krispy

    What you are proposing is a difference of time frame from what I have been arguing. You have placed minutes in your scenario where I have used highest bids newly placed in last second by automated service. Your scenario is manual bidding, not sniping. All those steps you nicely detailed are exactly what prevents someone from beating the highest bid, when one is newly placed, in the last second of an auction, because the human manual bidder cannot go through those steps again, fast enough to out bid a true 'sniped bid'. You have to reckon with the concept that manual bidders are not bid snipers, they are just bidders, even with two seconds. That no snipe bid was placed even though you felt like you waited until two seconds remained to confirm your final bid, doesn't mean you bid sniped. You simply bid manually.

    Changing the time frame, elongating it as you have, still only allows you to bid in a normal response time, manually. The final second is not within human manual capable response time.

    My argument remains in tact and you have yet to disprove me wrong here.


    Luck is not an indicator that your hypothetical win disproves me. There are other factors as I have mentioned previously. You are a 'manual bidder' in your scenario, and one who happened to have the highest bid. It was the highest bid to any bid snipe attempts that were made in that time when you could not again respond if your last second confirmation were met with outbid notice due to a true 'bid snipe' having simultaneously been placed with your confirmation and if you did win, it was that your manual bid was set higher than the last earlier manual bid and NO 'bid snipes' were placed in the final second. It does not conclude that you are a 'bid sniper' for having taken manual steps to the last (chanced) second. Bid snipes leave nothing to chance but a higher bid placed by another bid sniper or earlier manual bidder.


    I have used bid sniping services and have never had a bid snipe fail to be placed before the auction ends. Certainly I have lost auctions to higher bidders, be they manual bidders who placed higher bids before my sniped bid or other bid snipers who outbid me in the last second. My bids have never failed to be delivered, even when less than 6 seconds have been entered.

    While I have been an active member of eBay since 1/23/1998, since you somehow feel length of membership on eBay matters in this debate, I have had extensive use and success applying bid sniping software to my experiences with online auctions at this venue. Occasionally I have lost to higher bidders. Some were bid snipers and some where higher manual bidders, but no manual bids beat the last newly placed highest sniped bids, ever.

    We are talking about humans here who believe they can manually outperform an automated bid anc consider themselves 'bid snipe'. They are not. They are manual bidders, particularly underscored by the digital era where servers and systems operate faster than can humans react when outbid in too short of a time frame. Until you acknowledge the scenario, you can spin your wheels all you want with hypothetical situations crafted to cloak you failed evidence.

    'Bid sniping' in the context as you seem to be thinking of it on eBay does not include manual bidders no matter how they want to string this out to the last possible human moment to confirm their manually placed bid. Bid sniping on eBay refers to the use of placing a bid via an automated function, in a time frame when humans cannot react and outbid the bid sniper(s). It's a rather black and white definition.

    I've more than responded with evidence in this thread to argue my point to all in opposition. It's not what "I" choose it to mean, that is what bid sniping means, particularly in the time frame of eBay and the past 15 years that you are working from experience with. In your evidence, you have only adjusted the scenario to include manual bidding as a form of sniping, which you have not succeeded in changing the term to include, because you have detailed how long it takes you to chance placing a confirmed bid, manually.
     
  6. krispy

    krispy krispy



    If you are trying to understand this then you are over thinking my explanations or my explanations are not yet clear enough to help you understand the black and white difference between manual bidding and bid sniping. Your last sentence in bold above is approaching an understanding. I am not twisting words to suit a meaning I like best. There is a clear difference of what bid sniping means and I continue to stand by my numerous explanations of this terminology and how/when it applies. Unfortunately, there does exist a lot of misinformation and skewed perspectives on forums and so a mob mentality is a very real threat to understanding something correctly or having one's perspective broadened to understand an idea more precisely.
     
  7. krispy

    krispy krispy

    Lucy: It's the manual bidders who have to duck in the prescience of a sniper! ;)
     
  8. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Hey, I think we're getting somewhere! :)

    We agree that this is the point -- placing a bid so late that nobody can react to it.

    You also agree, don't you, that the sniping programs aren't "reacting to it" either? They're just placing a single bid at a previously-scheduled time.

    Computers can react to things much faster than humans can, but placing a last-minute bid doesn't require "reacting" to anything. It just requires timing -- and, as any athlete or musician or video-gamer can tell you, humans are reasonably good at timing.

    In the example I gave, I'm not "placing a bid with minutes to go". I'm setting up a bid with minutes to go, but I only place it when I hit that "Confirm bid" button -- and hitting a button within a one-second window really isn't hard at all, even for someone like me with slow reflexes.
     
  9. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    I've shown examples of people using "sniping" to include manual activity from the very beginning -- from the first time, back in 1997, that people started using the term in the context of eBay.

    If it helps, I can also point to eBay's own definition:

    Getting outbid

    Not a word about "using software" or "using a service" to place the bid.

    You use the term "sniping" to mean "using automation to place a last-minute bid", and you say that "manual sniping" is a contradiction. The rest of the world says that "sniping" means "placing a last-minute bid", and uses the terms "automatic sniping" and "manual sniping" to distinguish the two cases.

    It's really not a big deal, and I'm sure we're putting everyone else to sleep by now. But I'm powerless to stop. :)

    [​IMG]
     
  10. leaconcen

    leaconcen learning constantly

    Seems as if we have two topics here:
    1. What constitutes sniping
    2. Is sniping really worth your time
    As to what constitutes sniping, it does not matter what you call a last second bid; the final effect is the same. The worth of sniping is a different story. Normally, I place a bid (which is about fifty dollars or more than the current bid) in hours before the end of bidding. Then no change in the auction takes place until the final minute of the auction. If I had placed my bid hours before or a second before, I would normally see no difference in the outcome. So what is the worth of sniping? Just my two cents about this discussion.
     
  11. krispy

    krispy krispy

    No, I contend and support, that a bid in the last second of a live auction, when no manual bidder can see what is happening (the sniper is shooting from a hidden position)
    is a sniped bid. A 'lucky' manual bidder means nothing, it is not about luck and reflexes, you are just placing another manual bid nearest to the last second as you think is generally sufficifcent. A sniped bid is not about luck and guessing, it is calculated, like that of a shooter calculating the kill, hence 'bid sniping'. Such a bid is not manually delivered. It is fired at a time when a manual bidder cannot operate, a vulnerable period that manual bidders are exposed to 'bid sniping' attempts, that is when the sniper moves in for the "kill".

    Further, in the last second, should a sniped bid become the higest bid, nothing but another highest sniped bid may defeat the previous sniper. In this space of time, new manual bids do not exist, they are shut out of bidding in this term. Earlier manual bids may be higher, but they are not sniped bids, because they have previously been placed and are registered with the auctioner. As you detailed, it took you the last few minutes to set up a final manual bid that you would then lend to chance to register on time with the auctioner, while time remained on the clock. A sniped bid is placed with no "luck" element needed for reason to successfully register the new bid, on time-- winning or loosing.

    This is not about winning and loosing, the entire discussion is about what is a 'sniped bid'. Some sniped bids win the auction, others do not. But any previously established manual bid registered with the auctioner while the auction is live is manual bidding, not sniping. A sniped bid is prepared with a third party service, not registered with the auctioner. The auctioner does not know this bid yet exists, but allows for it to be received based on the element of time when placed, buy allowing an automated system to 'bid snipe' as opposed to a human using hands and keys/mouse to step-by-step through the bidding confirmantion process.

    I never said anything about sniping programs reacting to anything. They are hands free predetermined NEW bids that arrive in the interval of time in which manual bidding cannot be done. Therefore manual bidding, no matter how many seconds or minutes you dragged that last bid out sitting at the ready to click 'confirm', is not bid sniping, it's just bidding and it registers your bid with the auctioner before sniped bids are in-coming.

    Humans are inconsistent, no two react alike, which is why machines beat manual bidders all the time and are required to check when an athlete (for instance) crosses the finish line when two or more competitors are too close to detect by humans. But, bid snipers who employ bid sniping automated services have high rates of successfully placing last second bids compared to manual bids attempted prior to the last second, and can improve the odds of placing a high bid to win an auction by exploiting the breif interval of time when a manual bidder cannot reasonably bid.
     
  12. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

  13. d.t.menace

    d.t.menace Member

    Yeah Yak, pics are worth more that a gazillion words!
     
  14. sodude

    sodude Well-Known Member

    What's so great about setting your snipe to execute with one second to go?

    If my max bid is placed with 2 seconds to go (or even 5 and 10 seconds) and it is within one bid increment of yours, you will lose by waiting too long.
     
  15. krispy

    krispy krispy


    Not a word about "using software" or "using a service" to place the bid.

    [/QUOTE]

    eBay is a service that employs all manner of automated services, it's implied. As well that definition discusses only how eBay functions when a bidder is "outbid", and details how their service automatically increases a registered bid with eBay to the next level until it is met by a competitive bid. At that point you may be automatically alerted to being outbid. It discusses the last seconds, plural, but I contend bid sniping in the prescience of bid sniping software and services only applies to bids as described placed by these automated services in my previous posts. This is beyond a simply eBay company definition as these services are not limited to use on that one auctioner's web site and are open for interpretation.


    "last-minute" ---> NO..! A resounding NO! You continue to mis-use the interval of time in this discussion.

    I use the 'last second', not seconds, just second(.) 00:01 down to 00:00, close of auction. [/QUOTE]

    I am not wrong by this definition of 'bid sniping' and the internet will be here tomorrow if you are sleepy...
     
  16. krispy

    krispy krispy

    As I have said before, this discussion is about defining "bid sniping" not about winning or loosing. Bid snipers can still loose auctions to previously registered high bidders and other high bidding snipers. It's not a discussion about winning or loosing.
     
  17. TheCoinGeezer

    TheCoinGeezer Senex Bombulum

    :dead-horse::dead-horse::dead-horse::dead-horse::dead-horse::dead-horse::dead-horse:
     
  18. krispy

    krispy krispy

    If I've now got Yakpoo's attention too, then you know this is a worthwhile debate! :welcome:

    Thanks for bring the barnyard to the mob scene Yak! :thumb:
     
  19. krispy

    krispy krispy

    Particularly with you Geezer, it's a mere love tap, not a beating, that will make you submit.
     
  20. TheCoinGeezer

    TheCoinGeezer Senex Bombulum

    Yeah whatever.
    You're such a pedantic pain in the butt.
    You simply won't admit you are wrong and everyone else is getting tired of your interminable lectures which, as you previously pointed out, are mere opinions.
    And opinions are like belly buttons - everyone has one.
     
  21. yakpoo

    yakpoo Member

    I'm always here to help!

    Btw, (OT) I'm doing my very first CONTEST! The thread is entitled "Roasting Pot"...you in? You can snipe someone else's guess and win a nice coin! :thumb:
     
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