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Message:: [QUOTE="kirispupis, post: 6888184, member: 118780"]Hello everyone! I thought I'd share my auction strategies and also offer an opportunity for others to share theirs. First, some disclaimers:<ol> <li>I am very new to coin collecting, so this is just my limited experience. I'm happy with my haul so far, though, but feel free to call me out on anything you feel is counter-intuitive.</li> <li>I feel comfortable sharing my secrets right now because a) I've run out of money so I won't be bidding for awhile and b) If we all followed these same strategies, coin prices at auction would fall.</li> </ol>First, I organize my target coins into six priorities.Priority 1 - These are the coins I desperately want. There's never more than 2-3 coins in this priority, but I'll set aside budget for them. If I don't have enough to cover my Pri 1 coins, I won't buy any others. When a coin comes up for auction, I may go significantly above market value depending on how likely I believe I'll see a similar copy at another auction. Note that at times I have no coins in this category, since it needs to be interesting enough for me to put my entire budget into obtaining one.Priority 2 - I may pay 10% above market for these coins, since I'm aware prices are increasing.Priority 3 - I'll go after one if I have the budget, but I'll stick to what I feel is the market price.Priority 4 - I'll try for one if I think I can get it for a deal.Priority 5 - I need to see it on sale for 50% of market to go for one. I typically only pick one up if there's no bid at auction or a fixed price vendor has one greatly reduced.Priority 6 - Generally I just keep an eye on prices. As I pick up coins these will move up the stack. If I see an amazing deal I may buy one. For auctions, there are two types. I'm sure there are official names, but I don't know them.Sudden end - These have an end time (like Ebay). Whoever has the highest bid at time x wins.Back-and-forth - When the bidding time ends, parties have 10 or so seconds to improve their offer. After each offer, another 10 seconds are added until there are no new bids. My bidding strategies differ by the auction type. They're guided by the following psychological principles involving auction behavior. Again, I'm sure there are official words for these, but I don't know them.The loser principle - No one wants to lose. Given a fierce contest between two parties, both will bid higher than their initial max because neither wants to lose. The time principle - Given more time to think about a bid, a bidder will convince himself/herself to offer more. That max of $300 becomes "well, there are copies that sold for $400 and it's only an extra $50..."The attachment principle - This is similar to the time principle, but is slightly different in that the more "connection" one has with a coin, the more someone will bid. For example, a bid that is temporarily winning provides a "connection". Now that the bidder is winning, he/she will fight more fiercely to protect that win. My goals are therefore to a) win the coin and b) pay the least amount of money. To achieve this, I need to minimize the principles above (there is no escaping them completely). The following are my strategies. Sudden end auctions - For these, I don't want to bid too soon. If I do, the time principle kicks in. I therefore formulate a high bid (depending on priority) in my head and watch the coin. If the price goes over my max, I move on. If it doesn't, with ~5 seconds to go, I put in a bid for the full max price. Granted, I'm not the only one who offers a last second bid, but many of those offer a lower price. Since I do this at the last second, those who also placed last second bids don't have the chance to counter, and I win. I also usually win at a lower price than my max. Back-and-forth auctions - I do the exact opposite here. Since the most dangerous situation in my experience is to get into a bidding war at the end, I place an immediate bet when the auction starts accepting bids with my max price. Others bid on the coin, but they immediately lose so the attachment principle doesn't kick in. They move on to other coins. Of course, if someone else values the coin more than I, I lose - but I then use my own cognizance of the attachment principle to give up on the coin and move on. If I still have enough buffer at the end of the auction (admittedly, if this is a Pri 1 coin I will add some buffer the last day or hour), then most bidders give up after one or two raises. Other techniquesThe following are other strategies I use. Overlooked coins - A day or two before the auction closes, I'll look for low bids on coins I wouldn't mind. A lot of bidders pay most attention to the top coins and few bother with the simpler ones. If I find one that has good value, I'll go one bid up from the minimum. Since many other bidders are also fine with one bid up, I'll win since I bid first. If someone outbids me, I don't care. They can have it. The ugly sister - It seems many collectors during their lives buy one copy of a coin, then upgrade to a nicer one later on. Both coins go to auction and bidders pay the most attention to the better copy. However, often the "ugly sister" would be quite nice if not placed next to the better copy and can be had for a third of the price or less. Positioning - This involves looking at the auction company's bidding increments. For example, one auction moves in 20 Euro increments up to 500 Euros, then moves at 50 Euro increments. Say my price is 460 Euros. If I place the earlier bid, that means someone can beat me with a 480 Euro bid. However, if I bid 500 Euros, then they need to go up to 550. I call this "positioning". By forcing the other party to pay 10% more than I to win the coin, I stand a better chance that they'll just give up. I'll pay most attention to this for Pri 1 coins. The opening bid mistake - This is a mistake I've caught auction houses and bidders making. Say they have five copies of a coin - one far better than the others. The lower four they'll open at 100 Euros, but the best one they'll open at 500. Buyers balk at paying 500, so they flock to the 100 Euro copies. Bidding over those may become fierce, and suddenly they're at 500 each. Since they're all fighting desperately over their coins, they completely miss the much better copy that's now the same price. A simple bid of 550 can take that coin. I've seen this multiple times with common coins like owls, and in fact that's how I obtained my copy. Anyways, those are my strategies. I'm anxious to hear yours![/QUOTE]

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