Auction Results VS. Real Price

Discussion in 'Ancient Coins' started by Aidan_(), Apr 24, 2018.

  1. Aidan_()

    Aidan_() Numismatic Contributor

    How do they compare with coins that are only seen in auctions maybe 2+ times a year at best. Scarce but not at all rare. For example how does a scarce coin that fetches $100 at auction is later sold at a coin show for $25? Is that just from lack of demand?

    I understand that this may be an artificial price, but this raises the question of is the coin really worth $100 if it's scarce? If an individual bought the coin for $25 and he/she wants to sell the coin what would be a FAIR price to ask for it?
     
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  3. benhur767

    benhur767 Sapere aude

    Auction results versus dealer asking prices or offers from dealers? You're selling at a coin show to dealers? $100 auction coin will fetch $40 from a dealer at a coin show. You're buying a $100 auction coin at a coin show from a dealer? Expect to pay $200. Generalizations, of course. Price depends on the dealer, the show, and the market demand for any particular coin at any given moment.
     
  4. Aidan_()

    Aidan_() Numismatic Contributor

    Mostly auction results vs. what a dealer at a coin show is selling. So $100 at auction to $25 at a dealers table.
     
  5. benhur767

    benhur767 Sapere aude

    Usually a coin from dealer stock, which the dealer acquired at auction, will be marked up to perhaps double the auction result. Sometimes much more. I know this because I've researched auction results for many coins I've found in dealer stock. A well-known dealer whose table I visited offered a coin for $600 at a coin show in 2012 for the same coin that sold at auction for under $200 in 2002. This was his show price, because the price on the ticket was $725. Yes, it was a scarce type, and prices had gone up between 2002 and 2012, but not that much! Also, I suspect he had it in his stock for a long time at that price. Dealers are in business to make a profit. They can't make a profit and afford to attend shows if they sell their inventory at the same prices for which they acquired it.
     
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2018
  6. Aidan_()

    Aidan_() Numismatic Contributor

    I get that, which is why I said it might be artificial. The dealer in question is Pegasi. I don't know if he's known for artificial prices in his auctions or not.
     
  7. lrbguy

    lrbguy Well-Known Member

    Pegasi does not report false realizations. However, his estimates are typically higher than those of other houses. Houses like CNG intentionally set estimates low because it stimulates bidding activity. People are attracted to a potential bargain, so they bid. But winning bids come mainly in the final seconds, when attendant bidders give it their best shot. The more, the merrier. Eldert has never paid attention to that dynamic and has run sales for many years without it. It has little to do with the initial question in this thread however.

    In the market, true wholesale is about buying in quantity. But you can think of auction as a kind of wholesale venue, while a coin show is a retail setting. Dealers who stock primarily from auction will usually have higher retail prices. Dealers who stock in large bulk purchases or whole collections are able to offer deals, but must move stock quickly to cover their margins. Here today, today only.
     
  8. rrdenarius

    rrdenarius non omnibus dormio Supporter

    I have known Pegasi for about as long as I have collected ancient coins, a dozen+ years. The company has two dealers who attend shows in Texas. They have been around a while -> they are good enough businessmen to to stick around. They must know how to keep their heads above water on cash flow and over time buy low enough to sell at a profit. When I started collecting, most of what I bought came from their bargain bags, usually marked: $100, $75, $50, or $25. Most of these had prices well above the bargain bag list price. The next step up from the bargain bags for me was (is) their boxes of flips for Roman Republican coins. These are priced higher. The next step is the coins displayed in trays. The trays have museum quality and historically significant pieces. Seeing those pieces is worth the price of a coin show admission. How a coin is priced is a function of the price they paid, how long it has been in inventory and the seller's feel for what price that says move the coin or take it home.
    I recently purchased this quinarius from the new inventory. It is a very nice coin that Nick said was as good as he has seen.
    DSCN1703.JPG
    At an earlier show I bought two coins that had been auctions, but not sold. I paid less than the auction estimate.
    DSCN1630.JPG
    I saw this coin in a tray in the case. It is beautiful, but I was not in the market for a second sewer goddess coin even though it is waaaaaaaaaay better than the one I have.
    IMG_5743.JPG
    I am not sure I answered your question. When I buy a coin, I do some research on the price paid in recent auctions before making a bid and then try to not over-analyze if I got a good deal.
     
  9. Aidan_()

    Aidan_() Numismatic Contributor

    Kind of, I'm wondering why a dealer would have a coin that's been sold at auction for $100 for only $25 in a bargain bag?
     
  10. Jaelus

    Jaelus The Hungarian Antiquarian Supporter

    You'll never know all the variables at play for a particular sale. For example, a collector with a coin outside of their area of specialty isn't likely to get as much for a coin as a specialized dealer with a list of well-heeled collectors for that material. Every sale though gives you a data point that can be plotted to figure out a reasonable market value, given a large enough sample.
     
  11. Ken Dorney

    Ken Dorney Yea, I'm Cool That Way...

    Well, this topic is much more nuanced than some may understand, and certainly the answers will not apply to or even appeal to everyone. I think we all understand how ancient coin prices can and do vary quite wildly, often predicated on condition, style, venue, time of year, and nearly limitless others. But it also depends on an individuals interpretation of all those things in combination.

    In the OP question, how does a coin 'sell' for $100 only to later resurface at a $25 retail? First of course is that one needs to know if the coin did indeed trade hands at the published price. Consignors and auctioneers very often have reserves on their coins. Just because a lot has a high bid published does not mean that the coin traded hands at all. It may have remained unsold, and from there it is anyones guess as to how it ends up at $25. The original owner may have just given up and sold it for $10. Who knows? The coin might have been bid on but never paid for. This happens often, as a dealer I know. Its really hard to tell what might have happened.
     
  12. Aidan_()

    Aidan_() Numismatic Contributor

    Thanks Ken that answers my question nicely.
     
  13. Terence Cheesman

    Terence Cheesman Well-Known Member

    Any number of reasons could be the cause for a coin which fetched $100 at an auction later to sell for $25 at a dealer table. Years ago I paid about $150 for what was at the time an average grade coin for a particular emperor. Then a hoard showed up and specimens which were two grades better than my coin were selling for $100. I got what I could for the coin currently in my collection and bought the better specimen. Needless to say I got nowhere near my original $150. Oh well sometimes you get the bear and sometimes it gets you.
     
    Nicholas Molinari likes this.
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