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<p>[QUOTE="cladking, post: 442626, member: 68"]10,000,000,000 is certainly a big number and you're right that I do engage in hyperbole quite often but that's mostly just to shake up the status quo. </p><p><br /></p><p>Numbers just don't mean much any more. Back in the old days people each saved as many coins as they could get their hands on each year. When mintages were low the coins were unavailable so few were saved. When a big mintage (like a '19-S Lincoln) came along the coins were set aside in droves. Despite the huge mintages and the huge numbers set aside these coins would still increase eventually because they were affected by attrition. Each year a certain percentage of the number set aside simply gets burned up in a fire or flooded. There are lots and lots of ways that the coins disappear, but they do; inexoribly, year after year after year. </p><p><br /></p><p>In many cases the newer coins are not being set aside in the kinds of numbers they once were. How many people saved rolls of 1984-D pennies. It wasn't many and finding one of these today is not easy. They go for more than $10 per roll but remember there are two huge factors holding them back. Primarily people aren't interested in junk like an '84-D cent. Everyone wants an '09 or a 1919-S but most people don't even collect the memorials. The second factor is if you ever do find a roill of them the coins will be horrible. Fully half the rolls out there are corroded; there won't be a collectible coin in the roll. The rest will be as made but these were usually made very poorly. They have bad uneven surfaces with bubbles. Dies weren't changed often enough and the coins were banged up in the mint. </p><p><br /></p><p>When you add all these factors together it means that nice attractive coins aren't readily available from rolls and finding one gets pricey if you have to look at several rolls before finding one acceptable. There are the mint sets but these run $5 and 99% of the coins have problems. </p><p><br /></p><p>Counting the coins in jars and change jars just isn't realistic. Sure if you dumped brand new coins in a jar in 1984 and didn't move them around a lot then you probably will have a few nice specimens. But this isn't the way it usually works. Most change jars are "active" and all the coins are rotated out every several years. Those that have remained since 1984 are going to have been moved around a lot and be damaged or worn. </p><p><br /></p><p>I've said many times that there aren't any really scarce modern cents in unc or even in chU and gem. There are clads that are but not cents. The cent just requires too little money to set aside. Everyone can afford 50c and many will set aside bags. It's not a matter of scarcity. </p><p><br /></p><p>The issue is having the supply to meet the demand if and when these are as popular to collect as a 1919-S. There may not be so many of these left after so many years but quality isn't really an issue because most were made pretty nice and most that survive are close enough to being as made. </p><p><br /></p><p>IT IS THIS THAT DOESN"T APPLY TO MODERNS. </p><p><br /></p><p>They weren't saved largely because they were such junk when they were new. You won't find an original roll of '69 quarters because these coins were ugly. Just as the '84-D was a bad coin and not saved it has also not survived well. Most collectors want a nice attractive example of a coin. Generally their standards are gem but they want a coin that's even, normally struck, and without corrosion and damage. Finding '84-D's in 1984 that met this criteria wasn't much of a feat but you'd be surprised how difficult it is today. While the attrition rate on saved 1919-S cents was probably only about 1% in most years (even lower on later cents like '31-S) the attrition rate on '84-D's is probably well over 3% and showing no signs of coming down. Indeed there's little chance it will come down until people start taking these coins seriously.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="cladking, post: 442626, member: 68"]10,000,000,000 is certainly a big number and you're right that I do engage in hyperbole quite often but that's mostly just to shake up the status quo. Numbers just don't mean much any more. Back in the old days people each saved as many coins as they could get their hands on each year. When mintages were low the coins were unavailable so few were saved. When a big mintage (like a '19-S Lincoln) came along the coins were set aside in droves. Despite the huge mintages and the huge numbers set aside these coins would still increase eventually because they were affected by attrition. Each year a certain percentage of the number set aside simply gets burned up in a fire or flooded. There are lots and lots of ways that the coins disappear, but they do; inexoribly, year after year after year. In many cases the newer coins are not being set aside in the kinds of numbers they once were. How many people saved rolls of 1984-D pennies. It wasn't many and finding one of these today is not easy. They go for more than $10 per roll but remember there are two huge factors holding them back. Primarily people aren't interested in junk like an '84-D cent. Everyone wants an '09 or a 1919-S but most people don't even collect the memorials. The second factor is if you ever do find a roill of them the coins will be horrible. Fully half the rolls out there are corroded; there won't be a collectible coin in the roll. The rest will be as made but these were usually made very poorly. They have bad uneven surfaces with bubbles. Dies weren't changed often enough and the coins were banged up in the mint. When you add all these factors together it means that nice attractive coins aren't readily available from rolls and finding one gets pricey if you have to look at several rolls before finding one acceptable. There are the mint sets but these run $5 and 99% of the coins have problems. Counting the coins in jars and change jars just isn't realistic. Sure if you dumped brand new coins in a jar in 1984 and didn't move them around a lot then you probably will have a few nice specimens. But this isn't the way it usually works. Most change jars are "active" and all the coins are rotated out every several years. Those that have remained since 1984 are going to have been moved around a lot and be damaged or worn. I've said many times that there aren't any really scarce modern cents in unc or even in chU and gem. There are clads that are but not cents. The cent just requires too little money to set aside. Everyone can afford 50c and many will set aside bags. It's not a matter of scarcity. The issue is having the supply to meet the demand if and when these are as popular to collect as a 1919-S. There may not be so many of these left after so many years but quality isn't really an issue because most were made pretty nice and most that survive are close enough to being as made. IT IS THIS THAT DOESN"T APPLY TO MODERNS. They weren't saved largely because they were such junk when they were new. You won't find an original roll of '69 quarters because these coins were ugly. Just as the '84-D was a bad coin and not saved it has also not survived well. Most collectors want a nice attractive example of a coin. Generally their standards are gem but they want a coin that's even, normally struck, and without corrosion and damage. Finding '84-D's in 1984 that met this criteria wasn't much of a feat but you'd be surprised how difficult it is today. While the attrition rate on saved 1919-S cents was probably only about 1% in most years (even lower on later cents like '31-S) the attrition rate on '84-D's is probably well over 3% and showing no signs of coming down. Indeed there's little chance it will come down until people start taking these coins seriously.[/QUOTE]
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