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<p>[QUOTE="cladking, post: 26581237, member: 68"]Countless millions of moderns went into the woodwork; so many it's unlikely large mintage coins will be "rare". But it's mostly the same ol same ol. Lots and lots of bicentennial coins, a few rolls of 1965's, a few S mints, lots of pennies, some Ikes, and an occasional mint set kicking around in the back of the closet. They've snapped up huge numbers of "complete sets" at very low prices but these sets all look alike too and have the same poor quality coins (even sliders) for the same dates. And same dates will be tarnished. There are millions and millions of clad quarter folders with most empty or nearly so with worn and cull common dates. If you could pick through the entire huge pile of it you could put together a remarkably nice set of moderns but you are not going to find very many nice chBU coins of many of the dates because they were poorly made, never saved, and have tarnished. </p><p><br /></p><p>I often speak of the attrition on mint sets but not so much the attrition on the coins that are "consumed" by the general public. This is because even anecdotal evidence is poor for seeing this. Obviously a great number of these coins degrade or simply end up in circulation but it is highly variable dependent on the specific issue and when they were "consumed". But consider that if an individual bought a set of clad quarters in 1990 that just happened to have a nice gemmy 1982-P quarter in it he had (and still has) no means of knowing that this coin is in any way special. It is just as likely to degrade or be lost as every other coin in the set. Instead of sitting in a safety deposit it's sitting somewhere on "the green shelf in the garage". Attrition is very high and not even rarity can improve its odds. Price guides didn't even list them back in those days and when they finally did around 1993 everything listed at the exact same price. </p><p><br /></p><p>I simply doubt many of these sets survive and there will not be many nice chBU's of many of the dates. They'll be MS-60 and stained. Common coins are common but scarce coins will remain scarce no matter how hard we look for them. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>You're certainly right that it's all about what people pay attention to. Promotions and influencers have a large impact but once the time is right the promotions will arise like an acorn from an oak sapling and influencers will all get the same idea at the same time. </p><p><br /></p><p>I believe the activity in mint sets and the BU roll market implies the time is finally at hand. It will require require collectors with their own sieves to shake out these coins and discover which ones survived and which did not. If you pan for gold and keep coming up with copper and silver you might spend some of your finds to buy the gold. This is how rarity is identified and sought and BU roll buyers will find lots of gold even if they have to buy it.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="cladking, post: 26581237, member: 68"]Countless millions of moderns went into the woodwork; so many it's unlikely large mintage coins will be "rare". But it's mostly the same ol same ol. Lots and lots of bicentennial coins, a few rolls of 1965's, a few S mints, lots of pennies, some Ikes, and an occasional mint set kicking around in the back of the closet. They've snapped up huge numbers of "complete sets" at very low prices but these sets all look alike too and have the same poor quality coins (even sliders) for the same dates. And same dates will be tarnished. There are millions and millions of clad quarter folders with most empty or nearly so with worn and cull common dates. If you could pick through the entire huge pile of it you could put together a remarkably nice set of moderns but you are not going to find very many nice chBU coins of many of the dates because they were poorly made, never saved, and have tarnished. I often speak of the attrition on mint sets but not so much the attrition on the coins that are "consumed" by the general public. This is because even anecdotal evidence is poor for seeing this. Obviously a great number of these coins degrade or simply end up in circulation but it is highly variable dependent on the specific issue and when they were "consumed". But consider that if an individual bought a set of clad quarters in 1990 that just happened to have a nice gemmy 1982-P quarter in it he had (and still has) no means of knowing that this coin is in any way special. It is just as likely to degrade or be lost as every other coin in the set. Instead of sitting in a safety deposit it's sitting somewhere on "the green shelf in the garage". Attrition is very high and not even rarity can improve its odds. Price guides didn't even list them back in those days and when they finally did around 1993 everything listed at the exact same price. I simply doubt many of these sets survive and there will not be many nice chBU's of many of the dates. They'll be MS-60 and stained. Common coins are common but scarce coins will remain scarce no matter how hard we look for them. You're certainly right that it's all about what people pay attention to. Promotions and influencers have a large impact but once the time is right the promotions will arise like an acorn from an oak sapling and influencers will all get the same idea at the same time. I believe the activity in mint sets and the BU roll market implies the time is finally at hand. It will require require collectors with their own sieves to shake out these coins and discover which ones survived and which did not. If you pan for gold and keep coming up with copper and silver you might spend some of your finds to buy the gold. This is how rarity is identified and sought and BU roll buyers will find lots of gold even if they have to buy it.[/QUOTE]
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