Are the collectors going to die off?

A old college buddy of mine just sent me an e mail that was about a 5 minuite video on population growth. According to this we as a people are dying off. this all pretained to new birth rates for Europe and U.S. and other countries. Now they say numbers don't lie...however they can be used to promote facts that are somewhat half truths. This went trought the population growth of most countries. and what the numbers they showed said that most countries the birth rate is down. and that with in the next 50 years( depending on the 2012 end of time Mayan calander) that most of the new births can't support mankind as suriving.I'll have to see if I still have it and put up a link for those of you who wish to watch it. After viewing it myself I did question it a bit however with the ecocomy and other factors I can somewhat believe this could happen. The beginning of this piece showed population growth of many countries around the world. If I can remember correctly it stated a growth rate of less than 3.6 % was the down fall of that country. Being a baby boomer myself and seeing alot of us on the down hill side of life...most of what the data showed did make sense. Has anyone else seen this item out there?

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

I've been hearing about this for years now. Japan, Canada, Australia, the U.S, and virtually every nation in Europe are all seeing below-replacement birth rates and have since the 1990s. Will this trend continue? Who knows...

While this has many demographic and cultural implications, I wouldn't necessarily suggest this will mean a downward trend in coin collecting. The 50 States Quarters made coin collectors out of millions of people who never before looked at coins with any interest except in spending them.

Even if the population projections hold true, future numismatic initiatives will mean growth in the hobby base.

 

That is almost too hard to believe. I would like to watch the video. I could certainly see a downward trend in population. Short of an astroid or plague, (or 2012 ,) there's no way mankind is in danger of disappearing anytime soon.

 

Was that the video showing how the Muslim population is growing by leaps and bounds? If so check out www.snopes.com where this video has been shown to be flawed.

 

Several of my buddies from college are also collectors. All of us are around 38 yrs old. Over the last year, I've visited them at their various homes throughout the country. In each of their cities/towns, we went to the local coin collector's club meetings.

Hopefully I don't offend anyone, but it was like walking onto the set of 'Awakenings' with De Niro and Williams... Aside from a few kids tagging along with their dads, we were the youngest by at least 15 years! And these were clubs that ranged in attendance from 50 to 120 people, with membership rolls at 1500 - 2000 members.

I must say that these older collectors are great. Most have a lot of patience and have very impressive grading skills. Most have a lot of knowledge and are eager to mentor and share what they know. Most have forgotten more than I presently know...

However, if one were to judge the hobby by these meetings and membership rolls, it casts a foreshadowing light on the perpetuity of the hobby. :vanish:

 

Your points are well taken and true and worth re-consideration.
I think would could "not go wrong" by limiting some of our modern coin comments just in the hope that this will be a portion of the encouragement new folks may be seeking.
That is a very good point!!!

 

I am 30 and have attended some club meetings being the youngest person there.
But you have to look at how our generation has been taugh and trained to learn things and socialize. We were not trained to go to clubs, we were not trained to socialize in groups. We WERE trained to meet on the net and share our knowledge and learn ion forums like this one. I think the reason why you dont see as many people our age at club meetings is because they dont want to get in the car, drive for 15 minutes, have the meeting and drive back.
They would rather getr on the enternet and share and learn that way.
Just my opinion but that is why I think it is like that at meetings.

 

Take a guess how many US coins are up for sale on E-Bay right now :

1. 7,943
2. 35,612
3. 52,084
4. 228,975

The correct answer is 4. Almost a quarter million coins for sale, and you think the hobby is dying ? Why so negative ?

 

It is my opinion that coin collectors who actively attend local coin club meetings would normally be an older crowd. The people in their 20's, 30's, & 40's are too busy with their careers & family to find the time to attend coin club meetings. As people reach their golden years, there children are grown, their career & income stabilized, their activity level declines (usually), and they find more time for things like coin club meetings.

I am 37 years old yet I have never attended a coin club meeting or even a coin show. The internet satisifies everything I need with relation to the hobby and works well with my hectic lifestyle.

I guess what I am saying is that I don't think the attendees of coin club meetings is an accurate representation of the age of coin collectors in general. There are younger collectors who do not attend these meetings because they can't fit it into their busy lives. As those younger collectors reach their golden years, they will be the people attending the local coin club meetings. After all, if you sauntered into a coin club meeting in 1985, I think you would have seen the same age group of collectors in attendance that you do today. Now either those collectors have not aged in 25 years or their children are now the ones attending the meetings.

 

My point exactly.

 

A lot of 30-something people here calling themselves young collectors. You "old-timers" love the hobby, but you also admit that you are the youngest when you go to the shows. The hobby will live through you, but what about the kids? Will the hobby be popular when they turn sixty? I think the hobby will still be around, either as a kid's oriented hobby where the mint pumps out a different collectable every year, or a very expensive hobby, where the elite will buy the classics and average guys like you and me might have a few wheaties and buffalo nickels laying around.

Here's another thought. The world is changing. Newspapers are dying. Paperwork in general is dying. What would collecting be like if the world got rid of currency altogether, and replaced it with a debit card?

 

That is the only way it is going to die.

The elimination of physical currency

 

Super interesting thread and one I think about a lot. I've already posted, but would add:

- The OP talked about "Coin Collecting". Now is that "Coin Collecting" as many of us have in our heads - the old images of buying albums and filling holes, etc. or the newer, steroid-paced Internet program where complete collections can be acquired in 3 minutes if you have sufficient cash. Or just looking for "deals" all the time. I think many of you have mentioned that "Coin Collecting" may be redefined and I agree.

- I agree 100% with Lehigh's remarks on coin clubs - you're 20 something - a coin club meeting on Tuesday night at 8 p.m.? Uh, I don't think so.

- Ebay auctions/sales mean absolutely NOTHING as far as the true health of the coin collecting community is concerned. Flipping, ripping of newbies, misrepresentations, counterfeits.... In fact, more than one "respected" CT member has come on here saying they "dump" their unsaleable stuff on ebay.

It's actually funny, but I'm so paranoid about counterfeits, that collecting moderns seems to make sense to me! Especially where you're paying bullion prices for ASE's or even the Spouse series.

Once again. I love the comments. I worry about the subject the OP posted on a daily basis.

 

I'm usually the one that is criticized for being too negative on most subjects, though I'm only trying to be realistic.

I'm actually optimistic on this topic and I do not agree with your feelings here. I will agree that there is a lot of junk on ebay! But there's also a lot of good stuff on there too. There's just A LOT of everything. Which side do you want to pick?
The link I posted at the top of page 2, post #41 here.... concerning that dealer, they are NOT dumping unsaleable stuff on ebay. Everything I saw that this one, single dealer was selling was really premium stuff. They were offering a high MS half eagle for $50k. Just one of hundreds of auctions they have going on any given day. They're receiving feedback for around $300k worth of coins PER MONTH. In arguably the worst economy we've had since the Great Depression.

This is just one dealer on ebay. What are the collective GROUP of dealers doing on there? What's going on and what all is selling that we don't even know about at B&M shops? I personally know of many transactions for coins that happen at a dealer in my general area, where people are bringing in 5 digit checks, regularly. Sometimes just for the bullion. But nobody would ever know this takes place. This is only a tiny slice of what's really going on. The rest we don't know about.

It gets to a point where, what is left that is safe to put money in anymore? The cash is becoming more worthless every day. It has to go somewhere. Do you put it in something you enjoy and can hold? Something that will depreciate terribly with time? Do you trust playing in the stock market? I mean, these are desicions everybody is making.

If investors do ever look to coins again to store wealth as a safe haven, hang on for the ride. Will it happen again? It wouldn't surprise me. Frankly, I don't hope for it or care. But I plan on getting what I can now and living with the risk. For better or worse. I've been wrong before.

All I can say is, it's amazing to me how prices stay up there, considering the supposedly small number of people who are left in the hobby with any interest. No dealers are going to sell you a $200 coin for $100 just to move it. Or a $1000 coin for $850 just to move it. If it doesn't sell, then they'll just hang on to it. The thing is, if it's nice and desirable, chances are it's going to sell, no problem. Somehow.

 

Vess, I love this.

I don't have answers.

At the end of your post, you worry about where to put money and are amazed at how certain coin values are maintaining "value".

I agree. In my own limited enviroment, coin dealers are doing gold/silver deals. That's how they're breaking even. Pay the rent with Bullion transacations and hold on until the coin market comes back to make the real bucks.

 

Another thing dealers are doing to survive is listing "nice" coins on Ebay as soon as they come in off the street. Sometimes, before old customers like me ever get a chance to see it. And what torques me about it is they are so busy they can't take the time to call me about my want list. I am lucky enough to have a town with a few coin shops (some little more than bullion buying stations), but I frequent the smallest one because of the personalized service....every time *THAT* dealer has called me about a coin I might be interested in, I've bought the coin, or at least bought something as a thank you. You'd think the others would get a clue.

What you guys are saying about there being no good places to park my investment money is dead-on. I have the wife's blessing to ramp up coin purchases and buy more gold coins because it seems to be working and should continue to work if things get worse.

You guys have convinced me that I may have been somewhat rash in my worrying, but most importantly, I have more info to make an informed decision.

Steve

 

I agree with Steve. There are two coin stores in my area, and both of them are too busy to help me because they are too busy doing ebay orders and buying scrap. Maybe coin stores will go away, but you can always find what you want online.

Some of these coin dealers are just plain rude. My 22 year old son took a gold coin to the coin store to sell and the first thing the dealer wanted to know was who did he steal it from. The same dealer didn't even want to deal with me because all I wanted to buy from him was a cull silver quarter. Attitudes like that will kill this hobby for the young collectors.

 

Old vs New

The problem with many older coins is many are fakes.
Now you have a perfect scenario for passing down coins that came from a known person that lived in a defined time.That being usually a close relative.
If not , and you wish to delve into the gold market you need to purchase coins that are graded slabs. They cost more but if your putting cash out you can not afford to take a hard hit.
There might not be as many real old gold coins as one might think. Lots were lost to the Government in the confiscation scam.
New gold and silver have to be very carefully selected to get key or semi key coins from the mint .
This year looks like no one is paying attention to the products offered. I have not seen any thing to date I would buy. So E bay , barter and coin shows seem to be the offerings of the day.
The days of finding old coins and naive holders of such are few and far between.
This is a great place to garner knowledge for future or current buys !

Watch every thing and everyone.
Pep

 

I don't have the answers either. I don't want it to come across as though whatever I purchase I'm considering to be part of my retirement. Because it's not. I really don't want to sell anything and have a hard time wanting to sell even the stuff I'm not that crazy about anymore. So I'm not in it for profit. I figure whatever happens, happens.

One thing you can be sure of though is that I'm sure many people in the 50's looked forward to 2010 and probably figured the hobby would have died by now. With all the new things that are available to kids and people in general. I'm sure they never imagined how much prices would change from then until now. If not only for inflation. It's going to happen again.

If you ask anyone here, whether or not their grandparents should have stuck $10k in a savings account in 1950 or purchased as big a selection of rare coins, cars, (anything) as they could have gotten their hands on and stashed them away...... you know what the answer would be.

(During their 50 years, government spending was still sane. It is now 'in'sane. There is no doubt what's coming after the reality of all this money printing sets in. Interest rates floored at 0% is one of the only things somewhat keeping a lid on it for the time being. Just wait...)

Now yes, they could have done very well in the stock market too as this country had a lot of growth left. But where are we now? How much growth can possibly be left? How many more Walmarts do we need? How many more Mobil stations can be built? Where is Heinz going to sell ketchup and mustard where they haven't been already? To me it seems the markets should be maximized by now. To get in now is like getting in at the bottom of the pyramid. Much, MUCH harder for these companies to see gains like they have seen in the past!! For the vast majority anyway.

I'm not an expert. But my concern is that there's a lot of older people who try to convince you how good the stock markets are because of how well they've done over the decades. (Just don't look at this past decade!) They want you to believe that somehow we should be able to take a carbon copy of the past 80 years and project that onto the charts for the next 80 years. As if all these companies can/will miraculously keep expanding and growing forever! But that's impossible. Any profitable market that could be tapped, should have been tapped by now! Unless there's some new technology. The next 80 years will likely be a polar opposite of the past 80 years. There isn't much made in the USA anymore and millions of jobs have disappeared forever. That's really the heart of it.

I won't even go into the fact of how many millions of baby boomers will be retiring en-mass over the next 20 years. Who will all need to be selling those stocks to somebody for them to survive on. Hopefully the next generation can absorb it all and buy it all from them. If not, the markets could be at their peaks again right now. (Despite being in the red factoring in the past 10 years of inflation.) To me, the writing's on the wall. But, maybe I'm underestimating the upcoming work force. What's left of it anyway. That's my basic view on it. Trying to be realistic.

Oh yeah, another little known fact is that when the CEOs and "bigwigs" of these companies get their bonuses in stock options (to avoid the higher income tax rates), they 'create' brand new shares for them out of thin air. Thereby inflating their stock without investors realizing it. Then, they have to gradually sell it off to all the sucke.....I mean... investors so as not to flood the market with new shares and drive the price down.

The only reason people are in the markets is because someone else told them it was the thing to do. If people really read about them and totally understood how they worked now, nobody would want to be in them.

It wasn't always this way. But it has turned into a very ugly game in which the rich can manipulate it all to their benefit. You have to be lucky to finish on the winning side. With them. For example, many people believe short selling should be outlawed because there's too much incentive for corruption. It's too easy for insiders to cause a stock to tank and run away with a fortune.
You not only have the uphill struggle for a stock to be successful, but often times now, people are betting for it's failure so they can win big. When there's huge rewards and incentives for a stock to plummet, it's not too hard for the powers that be to leak a little bad info. Then all the shareholders think, "Well shucks, what bad luck! Everybody lost and got screwed." Well,........not everybody.

Just my .02 cents.