Are Half Cents Overvalued?

Hey guys, just curious what folks are thinking out there. A vast majority of the time, I don't trust PCGS price guides because I think they inflate the value a little too much. For instance, I purchased an 1872 Two-Cent certified F12 for $425 a while back. Book value on PCGS was $650 so it looks like I got "Value" though Fair Market Value was lower.

Lately, I've been combing for a nice example of a Draped Bust Half Cent for my Type Collection. I specifically want the 1/200 fraction but across the board, dealers want 25% more than graded value. As an example, Ebay has the following:

1803 in G-4: $93 (Book Value: $75) 24% mark-up
1803 in G-6: $120 (Book Value: $85) 41% mark-up
1804 Plain 4, No Stems in VG-10: $150 (Book Value:$120) 25% mark-up
1808 in F-12: $225 (Book Value: $175) 28% mark-up
1803 in G-4: $90 (Book Value: $75) 20% mark-up


I could go on and on. These are all certified examples with the grades identified. Am I just going to have to succumb to the whims of the dealers who are trying to "Make" the market a certain price or do I just keep waiting?

 

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And I am fully aware of Supply and Demand and people paying what they want vs what is available. I'm more looking at people who have experience purchasing old copper and have they generally been required to increase what they are willing pay.

 

You'll be much happier buying what you really want and not worrying about a few dollars here and there. The enjoyment from owning it for a long time will far outweigh the 20 dollars or so.

 

PCGS Price Guide values are overinflated. I use it only to see what premiums are like in the upper grades. Otherwise, I use Heritage and eBay sold prices to establish a fair market value.

 

I thought I clearly stated that the coins were undervalued on PCGS? I know PCGS is inflated, asking prices are consistently above PCGS in this regard.

Baseball21, I appreciate your feedback. I agree regarding paying more if necessary. I just don't want to succumb to a dealer who is trying to drive prices up or cover his own loss.

 

Same here. Price guides can be all over the place. What they have actually sold for is better information than what a dealer is asking.

 

Did you ever look at Numismedia?
Probably the same as PCGS but ....

 

Funny... I just bought a little set of draped bust half cents. 2 certified and 7 raw. The previous owner of them bought all certified examples (And upgraded the 2 slabbed ones). He paid pretty high for his new certified ones, but said he was happy to do so.
As far as values, I agree that those early half cents are undervalued, as hard as they are to find with nice planchets. It was a well-used series, and finding them in XF and above is extremely difficult! But yes, while PCGS Price Guide is generally ridiculous in nature, paying close to retail for draped bust half cents is still a value purchase, IMO.

 

You listed several examples currently for sale on eBay, but have you checked the eBay sold listings to see what people have actually paid?

The listings you presented may well have been sitting there for months. I find it more useful to look at listings that actually did result in a sale (and sometimes to compare them with completed listings that didn't).

As others have said, checking Heritage completed auctions is also a useful tool. I'm mostly a low-end guy, so I lean on eBay.

 

In general, I've always believed that the "Little Half-Sisters" have been and are undervalued.

The surviving numbers are extremely low but the demand is low also because putting together a complete set is very difficult.

 

There are 3 very rare ones, I think. Off the top of my head... 1802. 1805 small 5 with stems. And 1804 plain 4 with stems.

 

Don't forget the biggie.........1796.

That's the only one I didn't have in my set.

 

I was talking about draped bust, not flowing hair. Yeah, those early 1700's dates are tough unless you buy them corroded.

 

Unfortunately, Draped Bust Half Cents don't move as much as other coins. On CoinFacts for instance, there are numerous auction realized prices from 6-7 years ago. With that said, I'm not buying premium enough examples to warrant Heritage. I've looked in the past but the BP just isn't worth it down around $100-$150.

I think I'm going to end up coughing out more than I thought initially and my only real consternation is resell in the event I get hit by a bus. If I hold this coin for 50 years it will probably balance out with inflation but if I get hit by a bus next week my wife is gonna need to sell it.

I'm not new to coin collecting but I think there is worth in asking the question to folks who have bought specifically half-cents for a while. Its generally how I try to make informed decisions.

I'm also cracking the coin for my CAPS album so it pains me to overpay than break the plastic...

 

I also think there's another topic looming...The Death of Ebay, haha.

I just took a glance and there are 999,525 listings on Ebay. 134,680 of which are auctions and the rest buy it now. That's 87% of all Coin Listings essentially being a store now and not an auction house. Fair Market Trends are coming to an end.

 

Buy it now is good for the coin market. Keeps prices stronger that way.

Aside from that, I'd like to add that a lot of the "auctions" you looked up were not no reserve auctions. A lot probably have a starting price at or above retail.

 

You can still check prices for completed auctions. Checking in-progress auctions never was a good indicator, because it will give low estimates of value until the auction completes -- unless everyone bids their max early, which simply doesn't happen any more.

 

As a half cent specialist, I can answer that it depends on what you buy and from whom. If you buy the junk that most dealers offer, you should be able to get it at or below "market" prices. If you want quality, you are best off getting it from one of the specialist dealers. They charge more, but they offer quality coins.

Remember that ALL half cents are rare coins. Market studies have shown that there are fewer half cents in existence (all dates and grades combined) than there are 1909-S VDB Lincoln cents. You are not dealing with common stuff like Morgans, Saints, Lincolns, etc.

So, based on their rarity, if anything, half cents are considerably underpriced. Plus, there is a significant specialist population, so the collector base is solid and will be for the foreseeable future.

But back to eBay. Personally, I will no longer buy half cents on eBay, unless it is from a dealer I know, as we have found large numbers of counterfeits there, and new ones pop up all the time.

 

I do have to admit to a fondness for these little dears and will buy even worn ones that have some eye appeal. Usually on e-bay...cross my fingers!