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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;GDJMSP, post: 1999793, member: 112&quot;]There is no doubt that &quot;bubbles&quot; do occur in the coin market, that is just a fact. And when they do occur, nothing is immune. And of course there are varying degrees of &quot;bubbles&quot;. The big one popped in 1989. The only bull market we&#039;ve had since then, popped at the end of 2008.</p><p><br /></p><p>Josh there were many coins purchased in 2008 for well over $100,000 each. In 2009, those same coins, and I mean the exact same coin not just one like it, sold for under $50,000. And at the end of 2008 everything dropped, not just the high end coins. The ones that cost under $50 dropped too. In short, coin values across the board fell off a cliff in 2009. They bottomed out at the end of 2012.</p><p><br /></p><p>Right now the market is on a minor upswing, has been for two years. But it has also reached a level (a high) that it has bounced off from three times since early 2011. Now that doesn&#039;t constitute a &quot;bubble&quot;. Instead, it is what is known in market terms as a dead cat bounce - it&#039;s hits bottom, and then bounces. How high it bounces usually establishes the new and temporary high. It usually drops again from there. How low it goes usually established the new and temporary low. And then for several years the market will fluctuate between the temp low and the temp high. This is new market range. And it will stay in that range, bouncing up and down, until something happens that changes everything. And then it will drop lower, or go higher - out of that range.</p><p><br /></p><p>Typically, in coins, bear markets will last from 5 to 8 years. Bull markets will last from 3 to 5 years. History bears this out. It&#039;s not magic, there&#039;s no great secret, that&#039;s what has typically happened. You can&#039;t deny history for history is based on what has already been. The future is based on what might be.</p><p><br /></p><p>But in looking at history we know that as a general rule once a solid bottom has been established for period of time the market will turn upwards again. 1989 was the exception to that. 1989 established a top that we will likely never see again in any of our lifetimes, and I don&#039;t care if you&#039;re only 10. Coins today are still worth less than half of what they were 25 years ago.</p><p><br /></p><p>Looking at the bigger picture, the coin market has been flat since the end of 2008. And I mean flat, flatter than it has been since the 1960&#039;s and very early &#039;70s.</p><p><br /></p><p>Where will it go from here ? Guaranteed, it will go up and down, just like it always has <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie2" alt=";)" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" />[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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