Anyone think a boom is just around the corner (coin and metal prices)..

You got a point there... one reason silver isn't going as high as you'd expect is digital photography has greatly reduced the demand for silver salts used in film and photo paper.

 

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Here's little info and link to minerals down under / one thing there is less silver left in the ground
http://www.ga.gov.au/education/minerals/TOC.html


Silver was one of the earliest metals used to make coins. The Romans used silver in this way as early as 269 BC (more than 2000 years ago). Mexico is the only country today that uses silver in its circulating coinage. In Australia, the 1966 fifty cent piece was the last coin in general use to contain silver. It contained 80% silver and 20% copper.

Because silver is such a good conductor of electricity, it is used in many electrical applications, including switches, contacts and fuses. Silver is used in household switch contacts because it does not corrode - corrosion can cause overheating, leading to fire. Although silver tarnishes easily, the tarnish does not prevent the electricity from being conducted. Almost all electrical appliances use silver contacts and switches. Microwaves, dishwashers, TVs, telephones, toys and computers all contain silver. A typical washing machine contains 16 silver contacts!
Silver is an excellent conductor of heat, so one of its uses is in the rear-window defrosters of cars. The tiny silver/ceramic lines conduct heat onto the glass, clearing frost, ice and condensation.
Silver's attractiveness and the ease with which it can be worked make it a popular material for use in jewellery. Sterling silver is an alloy of 92.5% silver and 7.5% copper. Sterling silver is tougher than pure silver, so it can be used to make cutlery, serving trays and other ornaments and decorative tableware.
Because silver is so reflective - in fact it is the best reflector known- it is used in mirrors and in coatings for glass or other metals. Metals can be coated with silver by a process called electroplating.
Silver has a variety of uses in the health industry. For example, silver sulfadiazine is a very powerful compound used to treat burns, and silver is sometimes used in tooth fillings. One of the largest uses of silver is in photographic paper and film. Approximately 5000 colour photos can be taken using one ounce of silver. In 1813, Joseph Nicephore Niepce became the first person to create a photographic image using silver nitrate.

 

Carl, interesting point and one I hadn't considered. I was thinking more of the precious metals increasing in cost in US Dollars, based on what the world's perception of the relative strength of our currency is a proxy for their opinion of our economy. I hadn't thought about the actual demand for industrial and other uses besides bullion and coinage, and it's something I should remember for next time...

 

I would be willing to bet with you that what your prediction outlines will if ever,(at leastAlchemist's ability to do that) be at least well into 22nd Century at the soonest. Alchemist attempts to make Gold from Lead may be a thought but hardly a reality! I agree with the electronic theroy, but not the metal one...
If it could be done it would have already been done! Nice thoughts though....
And btw..nothing personal...just my view points. :kewl:

RickieB

 

The point I was trying to make is that IF the price of silver increases substantially over the next decade, the more common lower priced morgan dollars will probably increase more in price in percentage terms than the more sacrce higher priced morgan dollars. Of course, the more scarce coins will always cost more than the common coins, and common coins will always cost more than their bullion value because of their collector's value.

If you want me to guess, I would say that common silver coins will trade more closely to the bullion price on a percentage basis, but perhaps not on a dollar per coin basis. To provide a completely made-up illustration, if silver was $15 per ounce and a morgan was $45, or three times the price of an ounce of silver [yes I know a morgan isn't an ounce but I'm simplifying here], then if silver increased to $30 per ounce the morgan might increase to $70. This would be a double for silver but less than a double for the morgan, but it would be a $15 increase for silver and a $25 increase for the morgan.

This is the type of future price action I expect, and as a result, I think the lower priced morgans will outperform the higher priced ones in the future.

 

I have to agree with that.

 

This link details silver consumption. While use of silver in film and photography has been falling recently, overall industrial demand has increased, especially in medical fields and coin production.

 

True, but were it not for digital photography, the demand for silver would be even greater.

 

Silver has some special properties that are just starting to be exploited. They make a fabric from silver that pulls perspiration from the body (it will be commonly used in the next 3 years).

 

Every 2 weeks

If you're buying S&G bullion almost every 2 weeks that's just like cost price averaging. Some weeks it higher than others. (10+X) + (-10-X) = $20. Good strategy for repeated investments.

 

IMHO coin collecting and bullion are completely separate markets that each have different drivers for increased value returns but occasionally the two can influence one another.

In regards to Morgans, this area of coin collecting has always had its growth factor primarily connected to collector interests and though spot silver may influence some prices I don't think it will out strip collector demand/increases.

Where I see the bullion market impacting the coin market is in common low grade silver coinage from the 30s to 60s. If silver gets to say $16 an ounce what would this mean to AG, G, VG, or even fine coins that have always been available to new or low budget collectors?

My pessimistic view is that new collectors with small budgets trying to fill albums or type sets will be finding themselves looking at small $$ spreads between grades. This may move low grade collector habits towards VF/XF coins for pre-40, XF/AU for pre-50, & AU/BU coins for pre-64. Meanwhile, the AG to F coins are probably headed to that old silver mine in the sky.

For example;
I know common date merc dimes from the 40s can still be had for $3 to $4 in BU and if an AG or G grade is going for more than a $1 then justification to move up to an XF or AU is highly likely.

The question then becomes one of supply and demand. This may put pressure on the remaining supplies of
common date coins in XF to BU grades.
If there is a large collector base already existing at the lower grade end of the hobby then this will influence demand which will drive up prices and return a balance to the price spread between G to XF.
If there are not enough collectors at the low end to influence higher graded coins then the smelting factor will come into play to help balance the price spread between G to XF.

Sorry about the long rant but wanted to add me two cents

 

Hmmm... some good points made here.

Oil has made new highs, corn, wheat and soybeans too, gold is at all time high's, silver has almost always lagged gold, like now. When silver rallies to the upside then this market will correct...I expect silver to reach $25 but there wll be a lot of back peddling before it gets there.

With China and India building their infrastructure prices will move higher still.
Coin collectors will continue to buy and investors will continue to invest.

Silver is still used in photography, and now medical uses are on the rise so this replaces the demand. Coins and bullion are different. Bullion is collected to sell at higher prices. Coins are collected for enjoyment and fun.
Even with junk silver coins that rise with bullion prices coins are a lot rarer than most dare to believe.
If you sell out too soon you will regret it. Believe it or not but silver is actually rarer than gold.
Something to mul over...Thanks for letting me share my 2 cents...

 

The metals boom has been ongoing since 2002...we are just in the middle of it now...

I see Au at 1500.00 Pt at 2200.00 and Ag at 35.00 in the next 5 years or less...


RickieB