Anyone get to hear Rick Snow's speech?

If so please give details! I'd love to know what he said.

 

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This is the latest in Coinweek. But it's a written article, not a speech.

http://www.coinweek.com/dealers-companies/eagle-eye/overgrading-affects-coin-values/

 

Hasn't happened yet...

"A new coin grading system will be the topic of Indian cent specialist Rick Snow’s presentation at 9 a.m. Aug. 11 at the American Numismatic Association convention in Anaheim, Calif."

http://www.numismaticnews.net/buzz/time-for-new-grading-system

 

I thought I read somewhere he was speaking tonight in Anaheim.

 

Anaheim doesn't start until August 9.

 

I guess I had the wrong week.


The presentation will be at the ANA World's Fair of Money in Anaheim, CA on Thursday, August 11, 2016 at 9:00 in the Avila room.

 

Here is a link to Rick's article “Systemic Overgrading and how it Effects Coin Values.”

It's an interesting read...

 

I'll probably go see what he has to say. I'm also curious how large the audiance will be.

 

I was planning to attend as well.

 

It is an interesting article. I have heard other dealers and collectors making a similar argument regarding the use of auction prices realized for putting a value on coins. Even if you take the grading standard out of the mix, human nature(or collector nature) is to not want to pay more for a coin than everyone else. Many people will take the previous auction prices realized and try to win for a little less than the last coin, and so on. Eventually this will lower the prices realized posted and lower the perceived value of the coin.
PCGS Coinfacts used to be great when people had to pay to use it. It seemed that most of the dealers and collectors who were willing to pay to get the pricing would actually look at the coins linked in the previous auctions and try to make their own determination if the coins were comparable. Now several auction companies don't even report sales anymore and the results are all over the map. Many people will just look at the numbers and won't pay more than the lowest previous result without looking to see if the coin is a dog or a gem.

 

It is indeed an interesting and very good read. Somewhat self-serving and contradictory at times, but the overall point is excellent and worthy of due consideration.

 

This seems to be the biggest problem with using auction prices that are hurting the better coins. A lot of times there just isn't enough information about why the sale price was what it was especially with eBay prices. Was the coin a dog, was it a poorly timed auction by a new seller, did there happen to be several examples available that day ect. But most people don't consider those things and just say this is the new price.

I've been a firm believer for a while that if someone puts a collection together for the lowest possible price everytime they very likely have a lot of just made the grade coins. Great deals are possible, just usually not consistently. There's usually a reason that coin is fetching less then similar examples.

 

What both you and the post to which you responded are predominantly describing is the characteristic of a weak market. Though I agree that buyers want to pay less, somehow, I have the sneaking suspicion this wouldn't be proposed if demand were stronger.

I couldn't find the article but I don't need to read it to know there is no need for a revised grading scale. The existing 70 point scale already uses over two dozen MS grades when "+" grades are included and the differences between them are minimal. This supposed "problem" can be rectified by not paying exorbitant premiums for such minimal differences in quality.

Any change in the grading scale will be great for the TPG if they can convince enough collectors and "investors" to waste their money on resubmissions and for dealers and auction firms if they can use it to separate buyers from more of their money.

 

Agreed, and some of it is also that a percentage of buyers are only interested if they feel they could immediately make money off it. Some of the less popular series are absolutely dead right now.

It was basically how properly graded coins are going for basement prices because of poor examples being the new expected price point. I think its clear that whatever it is it will be a way to encourage higher prices for certain pieces. We already have CAC for that/+ grades/*grades and even his own Photoseal.

He does have a good point for some areas and eBay has certainly messed up a lot of values with their price races to the bottom, but grading a grade is already done by collectors and CAC. I'll be interested to hear what he proposes but again I don't see anything coming from it.

If they could have they would have by now. Redoing the entire scale in my opinion is the quickest way to destroy the value of everything and really kill collecting in general. Too many people would just dump what they have and call it a day instead of hoping their coins are still as good on the ranking scale as they once bought them. With billions of dollars in value already slabbed there is no way to overhaul everything without destroying the market.

 

Totally agree.

To me, the real problem is not "accurate" grading but the widening gap between the prior prices and the incomes of the collector base to pay it. No "fine tuning" of the grading scale is going to resolve this discrepancy.

My approach is to only buy coins I like enough where I won't mind if they lose value. I don't plan to sell my core collection, so what happens to the prices is not really that important to me. I also don't believe (and explicitly stated it) that my collection will ever appreciate enough where it will ever make any real difference to my financial circumstances anyway. There is no financial scale to the series I collect (except South Africa for a low number of buyers and the market crashed after I dumped most of my collection). So higher prices just make it more expensive to add to my collection with the only upside that availability for what exists improves somewhat.

I believe your description of "dead series" is going to become a lot worse, especially for the most widely collected US series that are not predominantly "investment" coins. By "investment", I exclude (to a point) Morgan dollars and generic classic gold because there is substantial financial buying in these series. I believe these can do well (at least temporarily) by benefitting from another metal price increase.

 

I don't think Rick's intention is to change the 70 point scale. I'm guessing it has more to do with grading accuracy and tracking of accurately graded coins ie CAC or Photoseal, or QA etc. It would be nice to go listen to his lecture, but I will likely be at my table. Hopefully selling coins for more than the lowest previous auction result.

 

His talk is at 9am, before the show opens to the public at 10. So in theory, you can make it.

 

I believe they let ANA members in 1hr early along with the dealers, but if I can I may try.

 

That certainly plays a role at various levels though IMO that plays the biggest role in the three figure coins. People getting the 4-5+ figure coins generally have a good bit of disposable income, unless they were laid off recently of course.

It seems like two markets have really developed. One where quality is everything to buyers and they'll pay up for it because that is what will make them happy and it's worth it to them, and another with buyers where the only thing that matters is the price paid.

Gold does seem to be getting more popular with collectors and selling pretty well across various venues. Generic Morgans on the other hand seem to be falling as there's just to many choices at any given time barring something special about the coin. Very well could be that some of the less popular series may not have bottomed out yet for their common material. Trying to sell a nice 3CN online right now for more than pennies on the dollar seems like you have a better chance at winning the lottery. I am not sure the popular series will ever get that bad for the nicer stuff but it is definitely a much better time to be buying then selling

 

I also like the article.

The ANA... The most interesting aspect of this topic of discussion, in my opinion, is what the ANA thinks of the current trends in overgrading? What exactly is the ANA's stand on this issue? Do they even have one?