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Anyone else notice NGC Coin grade values are seriously outdated?
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<p>[QUOTE="geekpryde, post: 26703729, member: 36248"]I don't think you need AI to update those prices, I think just a very basic algorithm that takes into account current metal prices would be very easy, and I hope that the Prices guides already do this. (maybe they don't?) Of course, for branding purposes, its will be called "AI" even if it's just Billy in the backroom hand-updating each value. <img src="styles/default/xenforo/clear.png" class="mceSmilieSprite mceSmilie2" alt=";)" unselectable="on" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>Thing is, the numismatic value shrinks on things whose prices primarily depend on the spot price of silver or gold. Meaning, a $2000 coin that has $1500 in melt value, and $500 in numismatic value, tends to not change price that much when the metal value shoots up, the numismatic premium tends to drop for awhile to eat up the increase in spot prices. At least that is my experience.</p><p><br /></p><p>The spot price increase would need to be greater than any numismatic value before the price really starts to move up on the item as a whole. Said another way, the spreads on premiums paid over spot shrink the higher the spot price goes, and this sort of makes the coin's price "sticky" around the historical price.</p><p><br /></p><p>If I am wrong about this, please correct me.</p><p><br /></p><p>In my opinion, coins that primarily are numismatic items are undervalued in the guides right now regardless of spot price. Maybe I only look at premium coins so my thinking is skewed here. But I only look at cheaper coins, <$1000 each, so its not like I am looking at high-roller items. Premium examples of cheaper coins are just way off in the price guides. It seems that most of us here are in agreement, so I tend to think it's actually a real thing.</p><p><br /></p><p>I wonder if one day soon we will wake up and the guide prices just suddenly jump 20%. </p><p><br /></p><p>If this is all driven by inflation, it's very unlikely that it will go back down. If its all driven by melt values, then yeah, it will go back down at some point. But I really think it's more than either of those two things. Maybe its all the flippers, or maybe its actually something good, like tons of new collectors are coming into the hobby. (I have no real evidence of this, except that coin shows near me seem to be quite healthy).[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="geekpryde, post: 26703729, member: 36248"]I don't think you need AI to update those prices, I think just a very basic algorithm that takes into account current metal prices would be very easy, and I hope that the Prices guides already do this. (maybe they don't?) Of course, for branding purposes, its will be called "AI" even if it's just Billy in the backroom hand-updating each value. ;) Thing is, the numismatic value shrinks on things whose prices primarily depend on the spot price of silver or gold. Meaning, a $2000 coin that has $1500 in melt value, and $500 in numismatic value, tends to not change price that much when the metal value shoots up, the numismatic premium tends to drop for awhile to eat up the increase in spot prices. At least that is my experience. The spot price increase would need to be greater than any numismatic value before the price really starts to move up on the item as a whole. Said another way, the spreads on premiums paid over spot shrink the higher the spot price goes, and this sort of makes the coin's price "sticky" around the historical price. If I am wrong about this, please correct me. In my opinion, coins that primarily are numismatic items are undervalued in the guides right now regardless of spot price. Maybe I only look at premium coins so my thinking is skewed here. But I only look at cheaper coins, <$1000 each, so its not like I am looking at high-roller items. Premium examples of cheaper coins are just way off in the price guides. It seems that most of us here are in agreement, so I tend to think it's actually a real thing. I wonder if one day soon we will wake up and the guide prices just suddenly jump 20%. If this is all driven by inflation, it's very unlikely that it will go back down. If its all driven by melt values, then yeah, it will go back down at some point. But I really think it's more than either of those two things. Maybe its all the flippers, or maybe its actually something good, like tons of new collectors are coming into the hobby. (I have no real evidence of this, except that coin shows near me seem to be quite healthy).[/QUOTE]
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Anyone else notice NGC Coin grade values are seriously outdated?
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