Another guess the hammer price. 1889 toned Morgan.

Here is another guess the final hammer price. This PCGS 1889 toned MS 66 Morgan is at over 2 grand, with 3 1/2 days left. There are 64 bidders. The coin has non-monster, but unique attractive toning. Toning on the obverse is beautiful rainbow, and the reverse is toned as well, attractively.

 

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guessing $3,200

 

I'll wager $2900.00

 

My crystal ball says $3650, inclusive. Not many of that date are spectacularly toned. As I said, not monster, but amazing pastel rainbow. If the coverage were more uniform across the obverse, it would be much higher.

 

I haven't been tracking values as of late, so I won't guess a price, but I do agree with your comment that this is not a monster, but it IS attractive.

One of the issues that is always difficult to determine via images is the INTENSITY of the colors. I'd say the blue on the NE and particularly the SE quadrants of the obverse looks pleasant, but not spectacular. The band of colors that stretch from roughly 7 - 11 o'clock look rather nice. The reverse crescent is a nice throw-in, but that is all it is, a throw-in.

The rather obvious nicks on the chin and the one in front of it are a concern for the technical grade, as is to a lower degree the ding on the forehead. Given that the money portion of the toning (e.g. the 7- 11 o'clock mentioned above) covers this area, each person would have to decide how distracting the dings are for him/her.

 

$3,365.

And what is my prize?

 

Great analysis of the coin by @Skyman. He’s the go-to man on toned Morgans for sure.

Here is a link to the auction:

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1189731/1889-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-66-Toned-from-photo

 

@Skyman wisely pointed out the technical grade issue and he has a solid foundation to stand on as this coin recently upgraded from MS 64 CAC. I was following that auction and was somewhat surprised to see it again with a two point bump.

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1148138/1889-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-PCGS-MS-64-CAC-Toned

 

I’ll predict $3,750 as the final (all-in) price.

 

Technically, I think it is a 65, given the aforementioned flaws, and toning. The regrade gave it a double bump. Had it been a guess the grade, I would have said 65 CAC.

 

$3450.00 plus auction fees.

 

and @ddddd

Thank you both for your kind comments, but I am certainly NOT the toned Morgan guy. I had some fun with them, but they were a pleasant detour in my collecting... not my area of expertise. For me, it always was Franklins (but not varieties).

I appreciate ddddd's addition of the link to the previous auction. It's always good to know that my eyes can still function. IMO the coin was undergraded at 64, and is now overgraded at 66. At this point the seller is underwater... we will see where he/she ends up.

 

$4445, with the vigorish. @ddddd is the winner. It got bid up a fair amount.

 

For a while it was looking like the coin would sell for barely over the 64 result (and almost certainly result in a loss for the seller) but in the end the upgrade paid off.

 

$995 more than my guess. Wow!!

 

Either the market has moved up significantly on MIDDLE level toners, or the buyer has just soaked himself. I hope the buyer is happy with his purchase. Personally, if I was the underbidder, I'd wake up happy on Monday. I suspect it was two guys letting bidding emotions get the better of them.

I DO wonder, if one of the reasons that GC has its auctions on Sunday evenings is because it is very common for people to have had a few drinks on Sunday, so their thought processes and inhibitions are lowered.

 

The market has definitely moved up significantly for the mid level toners. I would call that coin a nice level 4 out of a possible 6. It has pretty color, but the amount of coverage on the obverse is limited. Also, as you pointed out, the intensity is somewhat lacking in consistency. It is more an attractive pastel toner, as opposed to a monster. Nowadays, those tend to sell for monster prices.

I consider the whole market for toned Morgans crazy. Sy, I used to pick up coins like this one for $300-$500 maximum. Even then, I thought I was overpaying. Evidently, people are willing to pay 10x to 20x sensible premium value for what is essentially an attractive, as opposed to stunning coin. Perhaps you are right, @Skyman and @ddddd. The bidders drank their dinner, and all price restraints went out the window. The seller is laughing all the way to the bank, as he sold a nice, technical MS 65 toner for MS 68 monster price.

 

I always tried to end my eBay auctions on Sunday evening -- not because of drunk customers (wouldn't that be more common on a Friday or Saturday evening?), but because people were out doing other things on Fridays and Saturdays, and tied up with day-to-day stuff on weekdays. It was all guesswork, at least on my part, but it seemed like in the early days I did get better results on Sundays.

 

While I would bet that more people WOULD be drunk on Friday and Saturday evenings than on Sunday, I would think in general more people would be out socializing or whatever on those evenings, as per your "doing other things". Sunday IMO is more optimal for a mix of people that have had a few, but are closer to home, so they are more likely to bid.

 

As @Morgandude11 mentioned, the market has significantly increased (especially on toned Morgans) in the last few years. I began following toned Morgans on GC around late 2014/early 2015. There were a handful of surprising results combined with many strong but understandable toning premium results. Starting in 2017, I saw the first wave of across the board toning price increases and that continued through 2019 (interestingly enough generic white and neutral to unattractive Morgans were falling in this time period and hit their lowest point late 2019/early 2020). After a brief scare in February/March 2020 (which coincided with world events and the quick decline of the stock market), prices really exploded. This was the second wave and it has continued through the current day. Now a (what I consider) standard toning premium is the exception and strong results (again in my view) are the norm. I have heard some say that we may be nearing the end of this bull market and that may be true, but it has not happened yet.