Another 1878 7/8 lustre or no lustre

Discussion in 'US Coins Forum' started by DavidinCA, Dec 25, 2011.

  1. DavidinCA

    DavidinCA New Member

    I've found a coin on an auction site and was wondering if I can get someone's opinion on it. One of the confusing things as a beginner after just about reading through the Official Red Book on Morgan Silver Dollars is that David Bowers does not give examples on what he would consider a coin with Luster versus a coin with frosting or a coin with both Luster and frosting. He states that if there was a coin with DMPL status but had a whole bunch of marks or scratches or whatever, he'd rather just go with a more lusterious choice.

    The question I have is, is there any resource on the Internet that can give sharp looking pictures to describe a great Luster versus no Luster, Frosty with no Luster or Luster and Frosty? Or is this something someone has to actually see by physically examining coins at a coin show - which is something I don't have the ability to do. What types of lusty or frosty type of coins do collectors here feel more appealing? Is it necessary that I build a collection with the knowledge that somewhere down the line I might have to sell and therefore should build such not only based on what's appealing to me, but what's appealing to others?

    Attached is a coin I found on the auction site. I really like the appearance of the coin with the toning. My question is how does one determine whether the value of the coin deserves a higher than average price because of such toning, or whether other would consider it a dog because it doesn't come to the standard of "luster" or "frosty"?
     

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  3. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    That type of toning is fairly common and doesn't necessarily command much of a premium. The coin probably received the green beanie because it is solid for the grade. The luster on this coin does show through the toning, but it would be much more evident in-hand.


    DMPL's are a totally different story. Usually, they won't display luster, the same way that the mirrored surfaces of a proof coin wouldn't. If you want to see what I mean, search here for Blu62vette's posts of his DMPL photos.

    Chris
     
  4. coinman0456

    coinman0456 Coin Collector

    Here is an 1883-CC DMPL
     

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  5. DavidinCA

    DavidinCA New Member

    Yes Chris, thanks for that reply. I have seen the difference between was is a DMPL surface coin as per Blu62vette's examples (thanks) and what I've 'marked' on my watch list on an auction site as the following coin.

    lf.jpg

    So a few other questions . . . is it important in a collection that if one buys already graded coins that the coins be of the same grading company? If one believes that PCGS is the most likely to provide the best service to grade, then a coin collection of all PCGS might be perceived more legitimate than a mixed collection (different grading companies) if the coins were all of the same 'grade'. For instance ANACS might give MS64 to a coin whereas PCGS might only provide it an MS63 even if they both use the same standards to grade. Does consistency in grading company matter when compiling a collection of lets say only Morgan CC Dollars?

    The other thing as I witness the auction system - not ebay - but another auction site - that one coin might 14 days before the end of the auction already meet its Numismedia Wsl Price for a problem free NGC/PCGS coin. It wouldn't take more than a bid or two to reach various price guide ranges for the coin (ie Coin World, Numismedia, PCGS) etc.

    When purchasing at an auction, one might pay more for a good DMPL because of competition of buyers pushing up the price, but is there a point where buying above Price Guide Pricing is not a good thing. For instance we all have a budget and let's say it's the $1,000 per coin that David Bowers suggests. Certainly some MS64 can be gotten for half that . . but at what point does one say no, that's too much and therefore even though I like the coin, it's still just a coin. Is it important that if one likes a coin that they be first to make a bid, making their bid the highest they will go so that one more or less doesn't emotionally get involved with the bidding process?

    I suppose there is a market cycle to coins - just like the stock market - in that one doesn't want to be paying top dollar for a coin when the coin market is at its peak. How does one determine if one is at the top of the buying cycle or not? I've been reading that the Morgan prices still haven't reached the frenzy of 1980 time frame and therefore could have a few years left to potentially go higher in terms of 'quality' coins. Are higher graded coins likely to fluctuate with silver prices, or is that something lower graded coins have the potential to do more so because their 'value' is more tied to the melt value versus a higher graded coin has more artistic/numismatic value?
     
  6. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

     
  7. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    When you say he doesn't give examples what you mean is he doesn't show you pictures in the book. Well there's a reason for that. It's because pictures cannot show you the difference, you have to see the coins in hand to see what he is talking about.

    What he's doing there is telling how his own personal tastes run. In other words he doesn't like coins with a lot of contact marks even if they are DMPL. personally, I agree with that thinking, I don't either.

    But there may be others who would prefer a marked up DMPL over a nearly mark free coin that is not DMPL. The deciding factor is nothing more than a choice between chocolate and vanilla.

    No, there is not.

    Yes, you have to see it in hand to understand it.

    Again, the answer is merely a matter of personal taste - a chocolate and vanilla choice. Ask 1000 people the same question and you'll a whole range of answers along with a bunch of qualifying statements of - if it has this, or if it has that, then I'd do this, or then I'd do that.

    Well that depends. The first thing you have to do is ask yourself a question - why are collecting to begin with ? In other words what is your goal, what is your reason for collecting ?

    If you are collecting with the idea of making a profit, give up now and quit because you won't.

    And trying to figure out what is appealing to others is like looking at all the people in the mall and trying to figure out what flavor of ice cream each of them likes. You'll be wrong more times than not in other words. So even attempting to do such a thing is kind of foolish. You cannot predict what will sell the best in the future for a couple of reasons. 1 - you have no idea of what will be popular down the road. 2 - prices on coins move up and down like a yo-yo, all the time. 3 - you cannot predict who your buyer will be. Each of those things, and more, affects the outcome.



    What you are talking about is called knowing the market. But the market changes all the time. So the only way you can know the market is to keep up with the market. You have to study it in other words, watch it pretty much every day.

    Look at this graph -

    mpeace10graph.gif


    That is what has happened with the prices of Morgan and Peace dollars over the last 10 years. Do you think there is any way you could have predicted any of that before it happened ? I'd have to say the vast majority of people would have to answer no to that question. And the reason they'd have to answer no is because they don't watch and study the market. They may think they do, but they really don't. If they did, they'd all be millionaires. There is also a lot of guess work involved. And most people guess wrong.
     
  8. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    While I understand what you are saying, it's not entirely accurate. All struck coins have luster, even Proofs. It's just a different type of luster. No business strikes and Proofs do not look the same. But Morgans and Peace dollars do not look the same either, but yet both have luster. And because they have different types of luster you cannot compare one to the other.

    When it comes to judging luster you can only compare coins of the same series to each other. You cannot compare the luster of coins of different series to each other. That would be like trying compare an apple to an orange. It can't be done.
     
  9. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    With all due respect, Doug, the only thing inaccurate about my statement was that I mistakenly used the word "wouldn't" when I meant to use "would".

    >I didn't say that proof coins don't have luster.

    >I didn't compare Morgans to any other type coin.

    If you simply wanted to add to what I had said (or even correct me on the use of the word "wouldn't"), that's fine, but please don't say that I was comparing apples to oranges when in fact, I happen to prefer tangerines over both of the others.

    Chris
     
  10. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Chris - if I said -

    Don't take it personally Chris, it was intended personally.

    Or if I said -

    Don't take it personally Chris, it wasn't intended personally.

    Don't those those 2 statements have entirely different meanings ?

    Using the word wouldn't as opposed to using would gives a totally different meaning - thus my comments.

    And as usual my purpose in posting was not to correct you, personally, but rather to provide accurate information for other readers. It is after all a common mistake for people to say that Proof coins do not have luster. Which is what I thought you were saying.

    Either way, I certainly intended no offense.
     
  11. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    No offense taken, Doug. As a matter of fact, if you had not said what you did, I would not have gone back and re-read my post. That second sentence using the word "wouldn't" made absolutely no sense at all, so I can see how you drew that conclusion.

    Chris
     
  12. DavidinCA

    DavidinCA New Member

    First, thanks for sharing your thoughts and I especially like the graph.

    I guess I ask mayself the question of what is my goal IF I do buy a coin or eventually expand it to some kind of collection. I really don't know. What I do know is ever since childhood (I'm 49) and the GSA offering those CC Morgans when I couldn't have them because of not having any money as a youngster (grew up in the SJ Bay Area and took some trips to Lake Tahoe and Carson City) and my parents being not interested . . . I've wanted to have a coin or two or three with CC mint mark. But what I don't want is a cheap coin that is of no interest to anyone except those that are scrambling around in the basement bins looking for a bargain, when the ones are there for a reason - either over looked by the Pros, or not worth having except for the value of the silver.

    I doubt anyone buys anything in terms of a stock in the stock market or an antique car or stamps or art work and say hey, here's my wad of cash and I hope I loose money on the transaction! Most folks, at least in my humble opinion, don't plunk down huge sums of money on anything, not even a house and expect to wake up tomorrow with less. They hope to at least sell for what they have into it or make some $$. That's the hope. It's not necessarily the case. So I differ in your opinion that one won't make money by buying a coin now and turning a profit. I think it's possible. Whether that's what will happen 5 years after I buy this coin, or any coin, no one knows . . .

    My attempt here with all the question is just to ask . . . even if the questions seem obvious . . . or not so obvious . . . as the book, although a good read, of course doesn't provide those "picture" to give the novice a true idea of differences in quality. And the days of the 70s when coin stores with huge selections were right around the corner are few it seems. And in my area, it's really a pain to have to drive 2 hours just for a coin show that takes place once or twice a year. Either you make it, or you don't. Therefore, the internet gives me at least another option. BUT there's so much in terms of availability of coins that it seems what was rare or scarce, because of the Internet, doesn't seem so. That's what's spooky to me. The prices folks are paying on EBay for an assumed coin of good quality, without physically seeing it and the coin isn't even graded by a major service - that doesn't make sense. . . .other than maybe we are seeing a frenzy of buying just to buy because it is a coin with a mark.
     
  13. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Possible yes, but highly unlikely. There is simply too much to know, and even if you do know, you still have to be extremely lucky for not only do you have to buy at the right time, you also have to sell at the right time.

    Here is what I do know. Before you can ever show a profit you will have to overcome the buy/sell spread. Normally that spread is around 40%. So the coin you buy today will have to increase in value by about 50% for you to just break even. And that is assuming that you didn't over-pay when you bought the coin.

    Couple that with my above comments, and that's a pretty tough row to hoe.

    My comments about investing in coins are not just some random thoughts. They are based on a lifetime of experience and watching countless collectors lose money on their collections when they go to sell them.
     
  14. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    David,

    Everything Doug is telling you is true, and if you want to know the God-honest truth, I don't even bother to keep records of what I paid for any of my coins any more. Of course, I do have a record of everything I own, but if I had to sell, I'm only going to end up with what the market is willing to pay. No more! No less! Sure, I might be able to write off losses on my taxes, but now that I'm on a fixed Social Security income, it wouldn't do any good. So, what is the point worrying about it?

    If your only concern is a long or short term financial gain, then you'd be better off playing the stock market or buying real estate. However, if you accept the fact that this is a hobby and it is supposed to be fun and give you pleasure, then anything else is meaningless.

    Chris
     
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