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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;zumbly, post: 1884103, member: 57495&quot;]In a thread earlier this week, the topic of estimate prices provided by auction houses at their auctions was mentioned.&nbsp; Some of the opinions offered... the estimates were essentially meaningless, they were just a guess as to a reasonable sale price, they are primarily part of auction house strategy used to tempt bidders.&nbsp; Since it all sounded abit sinister to me, I thought I would do some investigative statistic gathering to shine some light on what seemed like a murky area.</p><p><br /></p><p>I picked two auctions that were closed in the last few months (Pecunem 14 and Roma 4) and compared all the estimates provided against the final closing prices.&nbsp; I then crunched out some statistics and info that you&#039;ll find below.&nbsp; I know it&#039;s only two random auctions out of a gajillion, but I&#039;m sharing the data in the hopes that some will draw either useful conclusions or interesting trivia from it.&nbsp; My own conclusion - I have way too much time on my hands.</p><p><br /></p><p>----</p><p><br /></p><p><b>ROMA 4 </b></p><p>28 December 2013</p><p><br /></p><p>Number of lots auctioned = 1076</p><p>Number of lots sold = 816</p><p>Number of lots unsold 260 (24%) </p><p><br /></p><p>No. of lots closing under estimate = 286 (35%)</p><p>No. of lots closing at estimate = 69 (8%)</p><p>No. of lots closing over estimate = 461 (57%)</p><p><br /></p><p>Average estimate on each lot sold = GBP 161 (USD 267)</p><p>Average final closing price of each lot sold = GBP 193 (USD 320)</p><p><br /></p><p>Percentage by which average closing price exceeds estimate = 20%</p><p>Percentage by which average lot that closes above estimate exceeds the estimate = 61%</p><p><br /></p><p>Breakdown for lots that closed over estimate : </p><p>&nbsp; 1 - 50%&nbsp; over estimate = 61% (281/461)</p><p>&nbsp;51 - 100% over estimate = 22% (100/461)</p><p>101 - 200% over estimate = 12% (54/461)</p><p>201 - 400% over estimate = 4% (19/461)</p><p>&gt;than 401% over estimate = 1% (7/461)</p><p><br /></p><p>Worst case of overestimatitis :</p><p>Macedon, uncertain mint AR Hemiobol. Circa 450 BC.&nbsp; </p><p>Estimate: GBP 30 </p><p>Closing Price: GBP 600 </p><p><br /></p><p>----</p><p><br /></p><p><b>PECUNEM 14</b></p><p>2 March 2014</p><p><br /></p><p>Number of lots auctioned = 1095</p><p>Number of lots sold = 929</p><p>Number of lots unsold = 166 (15%) </p><p><br /></p><p>No. of lots closing under estimate = 288 (31%)</p><p>No. of lots closing at estimate = 53 (6%)</p><p>No. of lots closing over estimate = 588 (63%)</p><p><br /></p><p>Average estimate on each lot sold = EUR 125 (USD 174)</p><p>Average final closing price of each lot sold = EUR 197 (USD 274)</p><p><br /></p><p>Percentage by which average closing price exceeds estimate = 58%</p><p>Percentage by which average lot that closes above estimate exceeds the estimate = 90%</p><p><br /></p><p>Breakdown for lots that closed over estimate :&nbsp; </p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp; 1 - 50% over estimate = 45% (265/588)</p><p>&nbsp;51 - 100% over estimate = 24% (139/588)</p><p>101 - 200% over estimate = 16% (97/588)</p><p>201 - 400% over estimate = 11% (63/588)</p><p>&gt;than 401% over estimate = 4% (24/588)</p><p><br /></p><p>Worst case of overestimatitis :</p><p>MACEDON. Koinon. Pseudo-autonomous. Time of Gordian III (238-244). Ae. </p><p>Estimate: EUR 50 </p><p>Closing Price: EUR 1100[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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