Ancients an Alternative Asset?

Threads such as this keep occurring from time to time, I guess it is only natural.

I think most of you know that I am living through the final stages of my lifetime of collecting Ancient coins. @Bing posted the following here which pretty well summarizes my own approaches and thoughts on the matter:

He is especially right about aging quickly - you are at the end of your life before you know it - best to plan way ahead. My experience has been that very little turns out the way you thought it would in your younger years - so try and allow for unexpected circumstances when you plan your coin collecting exit strategy.

I am quite happy with the way things are turning out for me - I really do enjoy “fondling, admiring and reading about my twenty coins”: (https://jp29.org/twenty.htm) - and also writing web pages. The only problem I have now is that I can’t get many CT members to participate in the threads I initiate - but that is my problem - I need to write more interesting and appealing material! (but profound thanks to all those who have contributed).

Added: Regarding coins as investments: I know very little about investing. In fact, I know very little about money matters in general - I am very fortunate to have a great wife (who can draw on expert advice from family members) that handles all financial matters. But I do know this: collecting and researching Ancient coins for some eighty years has provided me with endless hours of great enjoyment and has contributed enormously to my knowledge of history and culture. That is priceless!

 

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It was/is an INVESTMENT Bing. Take it your soul where-ever you go! Betcha odds are it will be worth more than a BILLION dollars!

 

I really appreciate the honesty here. I've been surprised at how many fairly cheap Ebay coin purchases of mine have arrived in Vcoins sellers flips with their original prices massively higher than what I paid. Presuming the prices are accurate I would conclude that ancient coins are not a very good investment. I guess if you have many high quality rarities, or a truly unique collection, that would be an exception.

That said, there's no better hobby or pastime to me! It has really enriched my life...

I apologize to any Vcoin sellers here. I still buy from Vcoins occasionally and enjoy doing so.

 

It is an investment in the sense that when I retire or if I ever have an emergency and I need some extra money I can sell coins and get money. However, I don't treat it as an investment (even if it technically can be considered one) because it is just not a good investment. If your goal is to make money, there are far better ways to make money investing.

Coins are an asset because they do have value and you can get some money out of them in the future, but they should really be considered a hobby and you should only sell in case of an emergency or dire need....because the truth is most of your coins will never make you any real money when adjusted for inflation. In fact, you will probably lose money on most of them when you adjust for inflation.

 

As I am increasing in years, so is the number of coins in my vast collection. What my children fear most, is me dying on them and they being left with all the coins. I would know what to do with them, but they wouldn't. Much depends on the eventual auctioneer and how he/she will break up the collection. Many coinsellers will jump at the cheap lots of coins, and so the circle is closed again.
I have been collecting for over 50 years and have noticed that coins were relatively more expensive in the seventies when availability went only through trade and they could ask any price as they controled the market.
To the question of how much I spent and how much it is worth, I can only say: it was and is great fun!

Frans

 

The ancient coins value will grow dramatically over next 30 years, because whatever is buried will be found and after that it will be much more rare and expensive.

 

The higher end ancients will appreciate. The lower end, not so much. If you pay retail, you'll almost certainly lose money if you later try to sell. If you pay a fair price at auction, you'll do OK.

 

A few disjointed thoughts on the subject after mulling a bit more:

1) Always beware of speculation. Probably the best example of this would be the "Nektanebo" type AE coin, which just a few years ago was counted among the rarest an historically important bronze coins, belonging to the only native Egyptian Pharaoh to mint coins:
https://www.cngcoins.com/Coin.aspx?CoinID=57492
However the original attribution came under fire when it was revealed that few of these coins were found in regions actually controlled by this indigenous Egyptian ruler, and furthermore the iconography is a much better match to the provincial issues of the Roman East in the 3rd century. Poof, someone's $3,750 coin is now worth $200 on a good day.
https://www.cngcoins.com/Coin.aspx?CoinID=366950

I admit to having a few "Speculative" coins in my collection - My "Britannicus" provincial could be "just Nero". My "Gaius Sosius" could be "just Augustus" - Or there's an off chance it could actually be Brutus! Tiberius Gemellus may not have actually had provincial coins minted for him after he was an infant. My "Johannes" is attributed primarily based on what I am pretty sure is a beard on the bust. We don't really know whether Aureolus minted coins at all.

2) While having a provenance is great for any collection, making provenance is a great way to ensure that your collection becomes an investment for whomever in your family decides to sell it after your death. My Indo-Sassanian coins cost me on average about $10 each (Most expensive was under $100; many were under $5), but I strongly suspect that once I have them all published (you know, ten years from now~) I could very well double or triple my "investment" if an established auction house could consign them for me.

Likewise, even though my Roman collection is mostly cobbled together from good deals from group lots, there is a decent chance that I would realize a substantial profit if I were to sell the whole thing at once.

 

The above pretty well sums up my feelings on the matter.

I have known several golfers but none that spent that little on fees, equipment, travel, tickets to watch the pros and whatever else there was. For a reason I will never understand, I enjoy watching golf on TV and will extend an open invitation to Phil Mickelson to join us here on Coin Talk should he decide to collect ancient coins as long as he promises not to ask me to go golfing.

While I agreed with almost nothing in this post, I most certainly could never sell every coin. I could not do the jamesicus thing and cut it down to 20 or 200 (2000, maybe, but that would not be easy). I have never spent investment funds on coins but only the entertainment money that some use on restaurants or golf. I have no idea what my best/favorite coins might bring at a sale; I never will unless my life completely falls apart. If you offered me five times what I paid for all my coins, I would not take it. A million dollars more would not improve my life. My coins do.

I agree very much. I would really like to have a certain, feel good place I gold tell my heirs to send the coins but I don't. When I am dead, they just become money again (dust to dust???).

They would be absorbed into the market so quickly and completely that people would soon start thinking of Clio as just another muse. My life experience has included several rich and powerful people. Maybe one of them will buy the lot as a package deal and cheat us out of seeing the Clio sale catalog which many of us would really like to have on our bookshelf.

Summary:
I enjoy talking to people who like coins. I have little to say to people whose interest in coins is what they are worth. We have both kinds here on CT. In the 50+ years since I have been gathering old scraps of metal, I have seen people come and go. I love to see investors go and dump their holdings. They pay the fees to the dealers would could never send their kids to college on what they make from the likes of me. I need those dealers to insure a continuing supply of coins I want and to absorb the ones I declare to be surplus (duplicates, upgraded examples and mistakes for the most part). I feel bad benefiting from all their services and buying so little that that is the way it is. Therefore I offer the following advice to any who will listen:

1. Buy high (preferably including many of my coins I consign to a sale).

2. Sell low - preferably so low that the dealer fees eat up all the profits you were expecting making that dealer able to offer me good prices on the coins you once had.

3. Go away mad that you were not able to make a killing in a hobby you never really found interesting but that filled your needs between collecting beer cans and buying Bitcoin.

Some may say should have used a few smiley faces in the above. The fact remains that such activities brings down the upward spiraling price trends and I do benefit whenever someone dumps their collection after losing interest or dies without telling their heirs what to do with those silly old coins.

My posts are always too long but I outdid myself today.

 

Doug, While few posts, you got me to post again. While Phil Mickelson may not ever come/post here, he has been known to use a Morgan Dollar, 1900 If I remember correctly, as a ball mark in the Pebble Beach event, Not sure if he continues to do or not but pretty cool right? Maybe, a nice Republican Denarius which has held its value as a days wage for over 2000 years may entice as a better size ball mark.

Regarding the original posters question. Ancient Coins can be an investment. As Ken posted, yes people can make money. Unfortunately the majority will not and many really don't care to or will not do what is necessary to make it happen.

Sad and currently true. In another market segment we specialize in, Conder Tokens, there are a few sellers on Ebay, who call themselves dealers (Actually one is but I can't figure out why he is selling things for less than he can sell them elsewhere), are selling slabbed Conder tokens for less than we buy them for (Auction Format)? On top of that they have fee's to pay. It's their right, not offended and don't need to bid on them and don't but it shows a real lack of knowledge or caring and leaves lots of money on the table for them. Ancients is the same way right now. I thing Ego gets in the way and people want to sell by quantity or profit. Yea, I don't get it. I can't think of another reason besides laziness. Knowledge is what keeps a dealer or collector in this business/hobby. A lack of real knowledge is what ends up preventing many collectors from making money if that's their goal. Here is another sad one, another dealer calls up, says, I need you to see and quote a price for this large collection, a quote is given and the dealer gives the collector much less and sells them for higher to the dealer. It happens all the time and is sad. All the best, Joe





QUOTE="dougsmit, post: 3699770, member: 19463"]The above pretty well sums up my feelings on the matter.


I have known several golfers but none that spent that little on fees, equipment, travel, tickets to watch the pros and whatever else there was. For a reason I will never understand, I enjoy watching golf on TV and will extend an open invitation to Phil Mickelson to join us here on Coin Talk should he decide to collect ancient coins as long as he promises not to ask me to go golfing.

 

If you're asking because you have money to invest then forget coins entirely. Unless you can afford to pay six figures in which case, like most other forms of high end art, you'll probably do ok.

If you already have coins and are wondering if you'll make money on them,

1) you won't if you resell them back to the original seller
2) you might if you sell them yourself (but it's a tough game that's getting tougher by the day

Buy stocks instead. Or precious metals. In fact, you could probably make a lot of money by buying platinum group metals now, especially the exotic elements.

Rasiel

 

For a spat of about 6 months over 5 years ago, I wanted to see if I could dip into the "investment" market and try to purchase coins for resale.

I spent somewhere over $500 on various coins, and probably made just a bit over half of it back.

I mainly collect world paper money. This is a HORRIBLE investment. Many of the notes can only be purchased for 10-50x their actual book value, and when you try to sell them yourself, you can never get what you paid.
For example, some Hungarian notes are worth only about $0.15 but I simply can't find them on eBay for any less than $1-$3.
Now, I can NOT sell the same note I bought for what I paid for it, and thus it's a strict net loss.

Occassionally I get a 'steal' but these are few and far between and not necessarily something to rely on in terms of an investment.

 

Definitely! People who are more comfortable buying from dealers at retail will almost invariably lose money when it's time to sell. Those dealers obviously obtain their inventory at a lower price than they offer it for, so if your pockets aren't bottomless and you love the thrill of the hunt then it may be rewarding to spend the time searching for the same sort of deals those retailers search for.

From what I can tell, it's a rock-solid fact that you'd realize appreciably more than you've got tied up in the coins. It's a common-sense and shrewd approach to collecting in my eyes. Clearly you're also a hobby dealer and approach matters differently than those who are only "coin"sumers, and it seems like quite a viable general strategy unless one is a highly specialized collector.

Unstated but implied was a hypothetical situation where some horrible (or extraordinary) exigency trumps the emotional attachment and forces sale. There's absolutely no way that I'd be able to wake up one day and randomly decide to sell everything. I plan to be buried with the bottom Roman Plumbata dart tip in my avatar pic clutched in my right hand for example. It'll be worth way more to me in the afterlife than it would be to anyone alive anyway.

So to be clear, you don't agree with the goal of paying below retail for items in one's collection? You don't agree that one should try to have a collection worth the same or more than one paid in the event that if disaster forced you to liquidate you'd match or exceed the performance of that money if it had been in a savings account instead? Seems rather silly TBH.

Here's one of a handful of illustrative examples from the past 2 weeks (good deals have been flowing lately):

I got this lovely obol of Phlious in Phliasia, Peloponnesus for 43.76 shipped. Phlious was an obscure polis that I am extremely interested in and specifically collect (message me if any of you've got Phlious coins to sell!). This particular type of their silver fractions seems to be the most common, so I knew I could wait until the right one at the right price came along. This was that one. As expected it is indeed much better in-hand than shown in the seller's terrible pics I cropped down here:


I suppose you disagree with the <44.00 purchase, and instead think I should have "invested" 155.00 + shipping (a fair retail price) on this lower-grade VCoins example (much nicer photos though, maybe that's what the extra 110+ pays for?):


I understand that it isn't a 4+ figure "investment grade" coin, but prefer to think that by making purchases like this my collection(s) will always be worth more than I paid, which is pure gravy on top of the considerable daily pleasure and enjoyment that collecting, researching and learning brings into all of our lives.

 

Bingo. I like knowing that at any given time, I can sell a portion of my collection and get anywhere from 50-90% of what I paid originally.

+1. Basically only coin dealers and retirees have the time.

Very true. Here is one of the few coins I have a traceable auction sale record for:


This sale was in 1999. I bought the coin last year. I paid $1100. Guess what $750 adjusted for inflation to 2018 is? $1128.

This is partially my hope. My primary collecting goal with respect to ancients is to put together a set by RIC number of Antoninus Pius denarii, and then expand into denarii of the rest of the Nerva-Antonine dynasty. Maybe I will publish a book. Maybe not. It's all for fun, anyway.

Hold on: if these notes are not available on eBay for less than $X, doesn't that imply you could theoretically sell them on eBay for around $X?

The fact that you can't find them for "book value" means that the book is wrong, or outdated, IMO. Given that we're having this discussion in the Ancients forum,
there really is no "book" in the first place. Every coin has to be evaluated on its own merits of wear, style, centering, surface quality, eye appeal, etc.

Yes! Exactly! I like that if I had to raise a few thousand dollars in relatively short order, I just have to make a couple of phone calls. I've got relationships with dealers to the extent that I could probably "pawn" a coin or 2 with them (literally, sell it to them, and ask them not to sell it to anyone else for a few weeks to a couple of months, then buy it back for more than they paid).

 

You are missing an element many people miss. For lower valued items, there is a distinct "mess with it" cost. A dealer is NOT going to list a $.15 note. He might PAY $.15 or less for certain notes, but to be worth his effort at all, he is going to charge $1-$3. This cost will NEVER be recoverable.

I face this all of the time. I buy group lots, sometimes knowing the individual coins might sell for $20 each, but I get them for $5 each. Why? Because most ancient dealers do not want to dink around listing $10 coins.

Low end stuff is low end, and best acquired in large batches if you want them. A dealer will sell you a group of 100 miscellaneous notes for $30, but will not list 100 auctions for $.30 each. Anyone buying lower end stuff should be aware of this phenomenon. Taking a price of a single coins is not necessarily the value in bulk, there is a "mess with it" upcharge for the dealer to be bothered listing inexpensive items. That is why in the old days these were in pick bins, it was an inexpensive way for a dealer to get rid of cheaper coins without putting in any labor.

 

I have many coins with tags from fixed price sellers and I sincerely doubt the prices on the flips were anywhere close to what the seller actually accepted for the coins! It's probably just a psychological ploy to make you think you're getting a deal. Pegasi's prices on their flips, for instance, are often comically high .

 

My rule of thumb is that the day I buy a coin, I lose one third permanently. That's what seller plus buyer commission and other costs such as forex or shipping cost on a typical coin, so the original consignor gets about two thirds what I pay, and that's a reasonable way to consider the asset value of your better coins (selling costs are much higher for sub $100 coins, so those are perhaps better regarded as a meal-out, ie no expected value). However having dropped by a third on day one, there's ways to climb back out of the canyon.

One way is to add value to the coin itself, for example by researching and writing up some rare aspect of the coin, especially if you collect in an area with lots of unpublished or rare varieties.

Another, tho mainly for higher end coins, is to research and find provenances for your coins. A 1930s auction record adds quite a bit to perceived value for example.

A third is the "collection premium" that seems attach to focused collections of a special quality or coverage, by a known collector. Of course on resale, that collection is dispersed again, but there's still a curatorial value for the individual coins that have been selected, for example due to better style dies, or a preferred toning, or the collector may have had an eye for better strikes or larger flans or more interesting control symbols or whatever. The point is that collection value persists even when a coin is resold, although those aspects of value are hard to define in advance.

On top of all those things you can do something about, as a collector, lies the one thing you cannot do anything about - the market in general. Anyone who says they can time their buying in cheap periods and to sell during market highs is speaking nonsense. If the market drops 50%, you go down with it. But at least make the best of what you have by buying wisely in the first place and then adding as much curatorial value as you can.

 

The coin market is wildly inefficient unlike much more liquid markets such as equities. I've seen coins that go for $2K+ in one auction sell in another for $600. I can't quite figure it out, but there are steals out there if you're patient. I sometimes go months without buying something then get the chance to snatch up 3-4 good deals over a couple of weeks. The key (if you're in it to at least not lose money) is to be the guy paying $600 rather than the bag-holder at the much higher price. I suspect, though, that a number of people who play in this price range don't really care how much money they spend...another thousand to them is nothing if they see something they like.

 

Let's be honest, 95% of those in this forum are not dealers, we are collectors. So yes, I suspect most of us have paid 10%, or even 20% or 30% more than they should have for a particular coin that really caught our attention for some reason or another, such as toning, style, etc. If this was a money making venture for me, I would not have bought 70%+ of the coins I did. Instead I'd be looking to buy popular coins that sell at a premium such as Athenian owls and Julius Caesars and holding them for a decade, or looking for uncatalogued coins at bargain prices that I could turn around and sell at a premium for being "unknown variety".