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<p>[QUOTE="Valentinian, post: 5473920, member: 44316"]I agree that prices have gone up since covid. I will stipulate that and write about the history of prices before 2020. </p><p><br /></p><p>I have a large library of paper ancient-coin sale catalogs with nearly complete runs of many major firms going back to the 1970s. I read them for fun during American football games (which have so much dead time and so many ads). Actual prices of coins auctioned since about 2001 can be found at acsearch, CNG, CoinArchives, etc. Before that date information about prices is still mostly to be found in prices-realized inserts into old catalogs. </p><p><br /></p><p>There are always types that are desirable now that have gone up a lot. However, even with uncommon foresight it would have been very difficult to capitalize on foreknowledge because they were rarely available then. For example, I managed to buy a nice Fine Cleopatra AE 80-drachma of Egypt at a price that would be impossibly low today. But I could not have "invested" in them because there were no others on the market at a good price to be bought. I looked for years.</p><p><br /></p><p>NFA V from February 1978 had a Brutus EID MAR "Extremely fine" that went for $26,000 (+0%--no buyer's fee!). That coin might be half a million now. Of course, very few people were in a position to try to buy it then. </p><p><br /></p><p>But those are outliers. The majority of prices of coins from the 1980s and 1990s do not seem very low now. Most coins worthy of photographing for a paper catalog have barely gone up in nominal dollars. If you factor in inflation, almost all have gone down.</p><p><br /></p><p>There was a jump in prices in 1979-1980 when the Hunt brothers ran up the price of silver and ancient coins followed, but didn't go back down as fast as silver did. Any Pertinax or Gordian II bought in 1980 is probably not worth more in nominal dollars now. Others have correctly noted that low-value coins have not gone up in value. That is not the same as saying high-value coins have gone up. Some high-value coins have gone up. Many have not. </p><p><br /></p><p>How good are you at predicting the future? The supply of ancient coins and the ease of finding what you want has gone up by a huge factor since the 1980s. Yes, most Roman imperial coin collectors would like to have a Pertinax. Will prices for him go up? Is he high on your list of interesting coins? There are lots of interesting coins out there, and the relative value of Pertinax has gone down a lot because there are many alternative coins of interest. You might not have predicted that in 1980 when it was still hard to work on the portrait set of emperors because the rare ones came available so infrequently. No one knows what the ancient-coin market will be like decades from now. </p><p><br /></p><p>I have broad interests and am aware of current auction (and retail) prices for many collecting areas. The one that stands out when I peruse old catalogs is Roman Republican, which has doubled or more when most other areas have remained close to flat. </p><p><br /></p><p>Now, let me admit that extremely nice coins have gone up, sometimes substantially. But, I can looks through a couple of hundred Roman imperial coins in any old catalog and find only a few I wish I could buy now at that price. Often I am (no longer) surprised at how high they went. </p><p><br /></p><p>Buy coins because of the dividends (in pleasure, not dollars) they pay while you own them. Don't expect to cash out with a profit in the end.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Valentinian, post: 5473920, member: 44316"]I agree that prices have gone up since covid. I will stipulate that and write about the history of prices before 2020. I have a large library of paper ancient-coin sale catalogs with nearly complete runs of many major firms going back to the 1970s. I read them for fun during American football games (which have so much dead time and so many ads). Actual prices of coins auctioned since about 2001 can be found at acsearch, CNG, CoinArchives, etc. Before that date information about prices is still mostly to be found in prices-realized inserts into old catalogs. There are always types that are desirable now that have gone up a lot. However, even with uncommon foresight it would have been very difficult to capitalize on foreknowledge because they were rarely available then. For example, I managed to buy a nice Fine Cleopatra AE 80-drachma of Egypt at a price that would be impossibly low today. But I could not have "invested" in them because there were no others on the market at a good price to be bought. I looked for years. NFA V from February 1978 had a Brutus EID MAR "Extremely fine" that went for $26,000 (+0%--no buyer's fee!). That coin might be half a million now. Of course, very few people were in a position to try to buy it then. But those are outliers. The majority of prices of coins from the 1980s and 1990s do not seem very low now. Most coins worthy of photographing for a paper catalog have barely gone up in nominal dollars. If you factor in inflation, almost all have gone down. There was a jump in prices in 1979-1980 when the Hunt brothers ran up the price of silver and ancient coins followed, but didn't go back down as fast as silver did. Any Pertinax or Gordian II bought in 1980 is probably not worth more in nominal dollars now. Others have correctly noted that low-value coins have not gone up in value. That is not the same as saying high-value coins have gone up. Some high-value coins have gone up. Many have not. How good are you at predicting the future? The supply of ancient coins and the ease of finding what you want has gone up by a huge factor since the 1980s. Yes, most Roman imperial coin collectors would like to have a Pertinax. Will prices for him go up? Is he high on your list of interesting coins? There are lots of interesting coins out there, and the relative value of Pertinax has gone down a lot because there are many alternative coins of interest. You might not have predicted that in 1980 when it was still hard to work on the portrait set of emperors because the rare ones came available so infrequently. No one knows what the ancient-coin market will be like decades from now. I have broad interests and am aware of current auction (and retail) prices for many collecting areas. The one that stands out when I peruse old catalogs is Roman Republican, which has doubled or more when most other areas have remained close to flat. Now, let me admit that extremely nice coins have gone up, sometimes substantially. But, I can looks through a couple of hundred Roman imperial coins in any old catalog and find only a few I wish I could buy now at that price. Often I am (no longer) surprised at how high they went. Buy coins because of the dividends (in pleasure, not dollars) they pay while you own them. Don't expect to cash out with a profit in the end.[/QUOTE]
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