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<p>[QUOTE="Finn235, post: 8353811, member: 98035"]I would say that coins are a poor investment because a lot comes down more to luck than anything. A few examples:</p><p>1) Nerva-Antonine denarii are statistically about as common as Severan denarii, but the success of Gladiator pushed public interest in the period of Marcus Aurelius and Commodus, and thus demand skyrocketed, and prices followed.</p><p><br /></p><p>2) A number of years ago, a remarkable series of bronze coins featuring a leaping ram opposite a set of scales emerged, and was sensationally attributed to Nectanebo II, the only Indigenous Egyptian pharaoh to issue coinage: <a href="https://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=463241" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="https://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=463241" rel="nofollow">https://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=463241</a></p><p>Then, a new hoard was found, pushing the attribution to the Roman province of Syria, mid 3rd century. Those handful of $5,000 coins became $150 coins almost overnight.</p><p><br /></p><p>3) Athens tets have always been highly coveted coins, but maybe 5 years ago a hoard of 10,000+ owls was found and "somehow" came to market - The big dealers are probably sitting on thousands of them, and have been trying to carefully feed them into the market without doing too much damage, but formerly $800-1200 coins still only hammer for $300-500 because there is a functionally endless supply compared to the pool of interested collectors. These were still pricy by my budgetary standards, but would have been unaffordable when I started collecting ancients in 2015</p><p>[ATTACH=full]1482485[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1482486[/ATTACH] </p><p><br /></p><p>One thing I think hasn't been touched on too much is the potential of demand for certain "backwater" specialties in numismatics to boom as the world economic status quo shifts. </p><p><br /></p><p>India is #2 in world population and about #6 in GDP, but about #160 in terms of GDP per capita - that leaves enormous room for growth should India maintain or accelerate its current IT boom. Most Indians I know (which as an IT professional, is a lot) are intensely interested in their own heritage, and expanding into Indian numismatics would be a logical next step if the country were to become significantly more affluent. We've already seen a surge in demand for top quality Kushan AEs, and other types like Mauryan, Kshatrapa, Gupta, Gadhaiya, or Shahi coinages would be a top contender to see a rise in prices.</p><p>[ATTACH=full]1482489[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1482490[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1482491[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1482492[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1482493[/ATTACH] </p><p><br /></p><p>Ditto with China, although I think the work is less on ensuring individual affluence and more on cracking down on the counterfeiting rings and repairing the international reputation of "Chinese coins are mostly fake". </p><p>[ATTACH=full]1482494[/ATTACH][/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Finn235, post: 8353811, member: 98035"]I would say that coins are a poor investment because a lot comes down more to luck than anything. A few examples: 1) Nerva-Antonine denarii are statistically about as common as Severan denarii, but the success of Gladiator pushed public interest in the period of Marcus Aurelius and Commodus, and thus demand skyrocketed, and prices followed. 2) A number of years ago, a remarkable series of bronze coins featuring a leaping ram opposite a set of scales emerged, and was sensationally attributed to Nectanebo II, the only Indigenous Egyptian pharaoh to issue coinage: [URL]https://www.acsearch.info/search.html?id=463241[/URL] Then, a new hoard was found, pushing the attribution to the Roman province of Syria, mid 3rd century. Those handful of $5,000 coins became $150 coins almost overnight. 3) Athens tets have always been highly coveted coins, but maybe 5 years ago a hoard of 10,000+ owls was found and "somehow" came to market - The big dealers are probably sitting on thousands of them, and have been trying to carefully feed them into the market without doing too much damage, but formerly $800-1200 coins still only hammer for $300-500 because there is a functionally endless supply compared to the pool of interested collectors. These were still pricy by my budgetary standards, but would have been unaffordable when I started collecting ancients in 2015 [ATTACH=full]1482485[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1482486[/ATTACH] One thing I think hasn't been touched on too much is the potential of demand for certain "backwater" specialties in numismatics to boom as the world economic status quo shifts. India is #2 in world population and about #6 in GDP, but about #160 in terms of GDP per capita - that leaves enormous room for growth should India maintain or accelerate its current IT boom. Most Indians I know (which as an IT professional, is a lot) are intensely interested in their own heritage, and expanding into Indian numismatics would be a logical next step if the country were to become significantly more affluent. We've already seen a surge in demand for top quality Kushan AEs, and other types like Mauryan, Kshatrapa, Gupta, Gadhaiya, or Shahi coinages would be a top contender to see a rise in prices. [ATTACH=full]1482489[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1482490[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1482491[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1482492[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1482493[/ATTACH] Ditto with China, although I think the work is less on ensuring individual affluence and more on cracking down on the counterfeiting rings and repairing the international reputation of "Chinese coins are mostly fake". [ATTACH=full]1482494[/ATTACH][/QUOTE]
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