Ancient Coin Auctions -- Fantasy Game

And thats what I do when I chuck bids on ebay. I see what dealers on vcoins, bargain bin *if similar is available* & forvm list them at. Also previous ebay sales and what ACseach sales ended at. Then I average out what my bid will be.

Bing saw what my tiberius was and one he was eyeing for little over 2x as much. Pays to research.

Now if I could just bid on this beauty

http://www.cngcoins.com/Coin.aspx?CoinID=240232

 

Log in or Sign up to hide this ad.

Ummm, maybe I'm thinking about this the wrong way, but this seems like a bit of a cock-eyed scoring system, no?

Why do you only win if you "over-bid" on a coin?

 

I just noticed a way to get a perfect score instantly....

You could bid $100,000 on any one coin and then would have 1, which would be a perfect score.

For example, a $100,000 bid on http://www.cngcoins.com/Coin.aspx?CoinID=239757 would get you a perfect score if this goes for under $100,000

 

Very exciting - I didn't know that!

 

=> hey Junior ... if and when you get your engineering degree, you should come and work for me!!

 

This could be mitigated by requiring a minimum number of coins (say, 4-5) which must be bid on. A $100K limit is going to be used up quite quickly here

A potential additional facet would be to take into account the relative accuracy of each bid, dividing the realized price by the estimated price.

 

Not true at all. You bid $100K on one coin that ends up going for $1,000, and your AES is 1%.

AES = (1/1) * ($1,000/$100,000) = 1%

You bid $100K on one coin that goes for $50,000 and your AES is 50%, but you no longer have any funds for other coins.

You bid $50,000 0n a coin that goes for $51,000 and your AES is 0% and you've lost $50K of your fantasy bankroll for future coins.

There's more to this than meets the eye. Think about it a little.

 

Another pitfall in bidding on fewer but higher-priced coins is that many times they go for multiples of their estimates, and you'll blow your entire bankroll and have nothing to show for it when the coin sells for 5X the estimate.

Sometimes it's useful having a graduate degree in mathematics! ;-)

 

Also not true.

You get maximum points for bidding exactly the final hammer price for a coin.

You get some points for over-bidding but winning the coin, but the amount of your overbid is no longer available for future bids..

You get no points if you don't win the coin, which is as it should be in this game.

 

Windchild => sadly, you should have kept your strategy to yourself until "after" you won the game!!



A-Joe => your +/- suggestion (using the absolute value) is a pretty good one ...

... huh, this could be quite fun/entertaining (oh, but in a very serious manner)

 

I misunderstood then..

 

It's still not clear how this gives you a bidding advantage, unless you know the reserve prices on the coins and how strongly the bidding is expected to be for those coins.

Since the game structure requires that all bids are finalized prior to the auction's start, and CNG posts all current mail-order bids on its website up until the actual day of the auction, it seems to me that all bidders are on an equal footing.

But of course, if there's something else affecting the outcome of which I'm unaware, you can always just recuse yourself from CNG's auction and participate in all the others.

 

This is effectively what the second term in the AES calculation does. It divides the winning bids by the total amount bid (assuming every participant uses all $100K in the available auctions).

 

ahahaha

No, WC => you were totally on the right-track!!

Ummm, I'm sure that you would have bid $100,000 for a coin that went for $90,000 (not bid $100,000 for a coin that sold for $1000 ... I have more faith in you than that!!)



So, your average would have been in Ty Cobb's range:

AES = (1/1) * ($90,000/$100,000) = 90% = chicken dinna!!

 

Upon reading your original post more closely, you're exactly correct - I think the methodology you outlined is the best way of measuring this.

 

Full access to CoinArchives and a vast working library, knowledge of major bidders and their specialties, the ability to communicate with said bidders, and the opportunity to view the coins in at least one of the sales.

But really, those are the kind of "advantages" that every serious bidder should have. I'll happily participate, if it sounds kosher to everyone else.

EDIT: Now that I think of it, I frequently find myself looking at prices realized and saying, "My god, what were those people thinking when they placed their bids?" It's entirely likely that I will come in dead last in this little game!

 

Sounds kosher to me. I think most people spending $100K at auctions have the abilities you outlined. Granted, most don't have the privilege of actually working on the catalogs (yes, you're hearing a bit of jealousy there ).

 

Thats me when I see some CNG sold stuff & especially Harlan. I'd probably be the one last cause I would refuse to pay $20,000 for something. Fake $ or not, lol.

Still this could be fun & interesting all the.

I posted on wrestling forums for years before I got back into collecting coins and we did this kind of stuff with wrestling bouts. Even had fantasy football team on yahoo sports with us just posters.

 

A part of this can be explained by quality. I often see people say, "How can that coin sell for x?! I got one in the same grade for half that!" But the coin they have is covered with marks and other minor damage. These auctions are populated by truly superb coins that are not only rare and interesting, but are often lacking the problems that you see on coins from lesser venues.

 

I'm good with it.