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<p>[QUOTE="medoraman, post: 3584110, member: 26302"]I would agree, as well as one other point. Yes, people made money investing in "condition rarity" and "key coins" over the years. They were good runs. However, both of these types of "investments" ultimately have to be tied back to real collector demand. A LOT of "condition rarity" and "key coins" simply are not RARE. With a general decline I see of what I call "real coin collectors", (those people who pay real money for coins, and not simply put aside bicentennial quarters and halves they find in change), the underlying demand is weakening for generic stuff. </p><p><br /></p><p>A 1916d dime is NOT a rare coin. In ancient or world coin circle, its so common to be a junk box find. Only with millions of people trying to complete a mercury dime set does it become "rare". I see a lot more people trying to sell grandpa's mercury set than I do anyone trying to put one together. In other words, almost all coins average collectors know off the top of their head as "key", and therefor "will always go up" are massively overpriced and the underlying demand is weakening daily. Same is true of 09s VDB, 3 legged nickels, 1877 cents, etc etc. </p><p><br /></p><p>For high grade stuff, you are always exposed to shenanigans of TPGs and their profit motives. I was just offered MS64 St Gaudens for $10 over melt. However, it is not a 64, none of them were. 20 years ago they would be in 63 or maybe 62 holders.</p><p><br /></p><p>I am certain what Doug shows for US coins is true. However, for truly rarer stuff like good ancients, truly rare world coin pieces, and US stuff I still collect like Franklin currency notes, prices are up. The best advice I have ever heard was from an old US dealer. He told me what I want to buy is what he does not have in his store. He said any time he gets rock solid, well struck and problem free collector coins he cannot keep them in stock. He was talking about pieces like scarce large cents, bust coinage, scarcer seated dates, colonials, etc. Great pieces that are truly scarce, not just "scarce for a mercury dime" or "a common coin but slightly better condition than average".[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="medoraman, post: 3584110, member: 26302"]I would agree, as well as one other point. Yes, people made money investing in "condition rarity" and "key coins" over the years. They were good runs. However, both of these types of "investments" ultimately have to be tied back to real collector demand. A LOT of "condition rarity" and "key coins" simply are not RARE. With a general decline I see of what I call "real coin collectors", (those people who pay real money for coins, and not simply put aside bicentennial quarters and halves they find in change), the underlying demand is weakening for generic stuff. A 1916d dime is NOT a rare coin. In ancient or world coin circle, its so common to be a junk box find. Only with millions of people trying to complete a mercury dime set does it become "rare". I see a lot more people trying to sell grandpa's mercury set than I do anyone trying to put one together. In other words, almost all coins average collectors know off the top of their head as "key", and therefor "will always go up" are massively overpriced and the underlying demand is weakening daily. Same is true of 09s VDB, 3 legged nickels, 1877 cents, etc etc. For high grade stuff, you are always exposed to shenanigans of TPGs and their profit motives. I was just offered MS64 St Gaudens for $10 over melt. However, it is not a 64, none of them were. 20 years ago they would be in 63 or maybe 62 holders. I am certain what Doug shows for US coins is true. However, for truly rarer stuff like good ancients, truly rare world coin pieces, and US stuff I still collect like Franklin currency notes, prices are up. The best advice I have ever heard was from an old US dealer. He told me what I want to buy is what he does not have in his store. He said any time he gets rock solid, well struck and problem free collector coins he cannot keep them in stock. He was talking about pieces like scarce large cents, bust coinage, scarcer seated dates, colonials, etc. Great pieces that are truly scarce, not just "scarce for a mercury dime" or "a common coin but slightly better condition than average".[/QUOTE]
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An example of "grade-flation" lowering specific grade market values
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