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An examination of the counterfeit slab epidemic. Scope and advice.
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<p>[QUOTE="Razz, post: 4193722, member: 100526"]Okay so .00125 is the same as .125%. IF we agree that this is the number of fake slabs in the population, it just means that on average there are 1.25 fakes for every 1000 slabs. It is NOT the same as probability of pulling a fake slab from the pool of all slabs or having a fake slab in a random 100 slabs.</p><p>First we do not have a perfect random drawing because not all slabs are available to pull from equally, plus no one just randomly select a slab to purchase. That said, IF we had a huge bag of all the slabs , both fake and real, and we some how could randomly sample that bag the correct equation for pulling a fake slab would be the inverse of the probability of pulling a real slab 100 times in a row. A pool of 8 million would render the sample size of 100 as insignificant for the with or without replacement as someone pointed out. So .99875 would be the probability of pulling a real slab from the pool based on our math assumption (which we know is flawed).</p><p><br /></p><p>However the equation, I believe, would be 1-(.99875 to the 100th power). I am on my phone and can't make a 100 superscript after the 5. Whether that totals .125 I don't know...calculator on the phone is also a challenge to figure out...[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Razz, post: 4193722, member: 100526"]Okay so .00125 is the same as .125%. IF we agree that this is the number of fake slabs in the population, it just means that on average there are 1.25 fakes for every 1000 slabs. It is NOT the same as probability of pulling a fake slab from the pool of all slabs or having a fake slab in a random 100 slabs. First we do not have a perfect random drawing because not all slabs are available to pull from equally, plus no one just randomly select a slab to purchase. That said, IF we had a huge bag of all the slabs , both fake and real, and we some how could randomly sample that bag the correct equation for pulling a fake slab would be the inverse of the probability of pulling a real slab 100 times in a row. A pool of 8 million would render the sample size of 100 as insignificant for the with or without replacement as someone pointed out. So .99875 would be the probability of pulling a real slab from the pool based on our math assumption (which we know is flawed). However the equation, I believe, would be 1-(.99875 to the 100th power). I am on my phone and can't make a 100 superscript after the 5. Whether that totals .125 I don't know...calculator on the phone is also a challenge to figure out...[/QUOTE]
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An examination of the counterfeit slab epidemic. Scope and advice.
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