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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Dansco_Dude, post: 25713049, member: 147679&quot;]I think I understand what you&#039;re saying now. The value of AI grading would depend on the user, but I agree that it would not be helpful to those who already know how to grade accurately.</p><p><br /></p><p>A few scenarios jump out of my mind with AI grading.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>a) The collector already knows how to grade a coin accurately</b></p><p>- In this case, the primary value of AI grading would be to serve as a sanity check. It could also help the collector identify a variety if they aren&#039;t versed in a specific coin series. Overall not that much value.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>b) The collector has weak grading skills</b></p><p>- In this case, AI grading can help them in a variety of ways:</p><p>-- Serve as a sanity check to help them improve their grading skills</p><p>-- Determine if it would be worth it to send into the TPGs</p><p>-- Give them a sense of the grade and its value before going into a coin shop and talking with a dealer</p><p><br /></p><p><b>c) Online Dealers w/ weak grading skills</b></p><p>- In this case, it can help them give a more accurate description of the coin when listing a coin for sale</p><p>- AI grading results can be pointed to buyers to give buyers more confidence</p><p><br /></p><p><b>d) Online Dealers w/ strong grading skills</b></p><p>- AI grading results can be pointed to buyers to give buyers more confidence</p><p><br /></p><p><b>e) In-person coin dealers</b></p><p>- AI grading results can be pointed to buyers to give buyers more confidence</p><p>- Serve as a sanity check when they have to leave the shop and a more junior dealer is manning the shop</p><p><br /></p><p><b>f) Third-Party Grading Companies</b></p><p>I have A LOT of thoughts to share on this</p><p><br /></p><p>I&#039;ve been thinking a lot about the consequences for the TPGs of the emergence of AI grading. It may impact their business model in many ways. But I&#039;ve also considered whether the TPGs are even incentivized to adopt AI grading.</p><p><br /></p><p>I believe that, eventually, the TPGs will use AI to help increase efficiencies in areas like counterfeit detection. But overall, I don&#039;t see them replacing human graders anytime soon.</p><p><br /></p><p>There are a few reasons why I think this way:</p><p><br /></p><ul> <li>The TPGs value is not grading. They have billion-dollar valuations because of their reputation and the liquidity they provide to the marketplace. They make it easier for dealers to buy and sell coins. It just so happens that this liquidity is provided through their grading services. It doesn&#039;t matter that imperfect human graders are used. It works and works well today. There&#039;s no need for them to rock the boat.<br /> <br /> </li> <li>They have no incentive to normalize AI grading. Right now, the TPGs are differentiated through their reputation with collectors. If AI grading becomes normalized, the market may shift to focus on how accurate their AI algorithms are as the main differentiating factor. TPGs are not tech powerhouses. Hiring AI/ML specialists to run an ever-spiraling arms race toward the perfect model will take time and money. It&#039;s much safer to avoid this altogether. There is the risk that the TPGs all end up with nearly perfect models. So, people will just submit to the cheapest grader. Or even just grade at home.<br /> <br /> </li> <li>There is the risk that collectors will balk at the idea. Many dealers remember Compugrade and their &quot;AI&quot; models from the 1990s, and they aren&#039;t remembered fondly. It&#039;s not worth the reputational risk.<br /> <br /> </li> <li>The TPGs have very little to gain financially from using AI. Why risk the company&#039;s reputation to save a few million on graders? What is the upside moneywise?<br /> <br /> </li> <li>AI grading would destroy all the money the TPGs get from the breaking slabs and resubmitting game. Why bother resubmitting when you know the AI will remember the same coin and give the same grade?<br /> <br /> </li> <li>Last but not least is market vs technical grading. Most TPGs do market grading, which requires a deep understanding of the market for each specific coin series. A VF Large Cent in the 1840s may have shifted to XF today because of market sentiments. AI can and will be great at technical grading. However, AI does not have a &quot;gut feeling&quot; about what the market would accept as the &quot;right&quot; grade. Only what a coin can technically grade as given objective criteria.</li> </ul><p><br /></p><p>Note how I did not mention much about technical limitations. It&#039;s mostly market forces at play. This was the lesson I learned from my work with AI and coins.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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