Aftermarket Price Performance of Hot Mint Items

For those that had Ike sets in our shopping carts, only to be rebuffed by a crappy website, we have a bit of a conundrum if we want the coins: buy now at inflated prices, or gamble on a reduction. What are folks' thoughts on this?

I know the 1999 silver proof set has performed very poorly over time. Meanwhile, last year's coin and currency set seems to be hanging in there around $50 / set. Although the latter took far longer than 9 months to begin exhibiting a significant price decline.

 

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3 answers: buy now at inflated prices, gamble on a reduction, or bookmark correct US Mint website and buy at start time immediately

 

Same problem here at the mint, so I bought one for my collection in the aftermarket. This will be a high priced coin, never close to the mint issue price again, so I'm not going to have to buy it at possible moon prices. If all goes south, at today's price, it won't be a huge loss.

 

I guess the main part is

is the "have to" part. No one, has to buy one. It may be desirable for a person to have on if they collect the area, but other than that, its the mint game to 'make' an asset that they only have to monitor for less than 1 day. No one counts them. They could have made 10,000 extra for their biggest companies, and who would know?

But I did buy a Bridgeport half in honor of this event. It has P.T. Barnum on it and it is appropriate for the mint's efforts on collectors, IMO of course.

 

Yeah, the mint sure is going overboard on new releases. But hey, these are uber low mintage keys for series I collect.

 

And now they hooked you into their buying scheme.

 

Yeah, and I usually buy extras from the mint and have made money on just about everything I bought, including some hefty paper gains on coins I'm still holding. Even the coins I'm holding could be liquidated today on eBay for a hefty profit. Yeah, there are losers from the mint, but I try not to buy those.

 

All of us on CT are hooked into buying one coin or the other.

 

I love the reverse of that coin. Such a weird design choice. Well it and PT Barnum being on the obverse.

 

Of course. But what does past experience suggest about the first two of those three options?

I suspect this set is available for less (inflation adjusted) in ten years than it is today.

 

I don't buy into the instant rarity ploy that the mint has been relying upon for sales. I've not seen very many of these survive the initial price hike for very long. If only flippers are interested in them for quick profits, who is the market for them. I bought the March of dimes set because I wanted one, not because I saw a future market for them.

 

If you track the performance of so-called hot items, there is usually a lot of hype before release, it sells out quickly, and the price spikes. The price will peak after a couple of weeks, or maybe months for teh really hot items, and then will fall down. A couple of years later, prices will be reasonable... and will continue falling for quite some time. Most of these will be available for less than the original mint price after a couple of years. The lucky flippers will have made their money, and the unlucky suckers got bilked of their cash. There is no chance that they will get their money back.

Pick your favorite hyped/inflated item from 2-3 years ago and go check prices for them now... I'll wager they are considerably lower than when they were the "hot item of the week." If you want it now and have to have it now, then just be aware that you *will* lose money. If you can be patient, you'll get the exact same thing for considerably less in a couple years.

 

Don't pay a big premium for anything that was made yesterday. Don't be that sucker!

 

I'm guessing that demand for the set will be lower a year from now than it is today. If you can't wait, by all means overpay.

 

I'll take all the 1995 Gold Proof Sets with the 1995-w Proof ASE, the 1997 Botanic Sets with the Matte Nickel, the 1998 Kennedy Sets with the 1998-s Matte Half, the 2011 25th ASE Sets, and numerous unc commem dollars (I have a list) you have for issue price. PM me if you have any. Thanks

 

I was just about to type the same thing

 

I haven't heard from you. Don't want to dump this "junk"?

 

I take great care to never speak in absolutes. There are certainly exceptions to every generality - and the ones you mention are a few of the winners. However, even you can't deny that for every one that you mention, there are many others that have lost money. And most of the ones who are still higher are trading well below their peak.

 

Did you say the same thing about the 1995 W silver eagle when they came out ?

 

Think about how many times you have had struck out before you hit a home run.