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<p>[QUOTE="World Colonial, post: 2444339, member: 78153"]The population has little to do with the price level. I'll agree it matters somewhat in the US because of the scale of collecting but it isn't one of the primary factors, especially when the growth is disproportionately going to be in minorities who have a much lower historical propensity to collect and a much higher percentage will have little to zero affinity for US coins anyway.</p><p><br /></p><p>Presumably like most others here and on other coin forums, you probably also have a much rosier economic outlook than I do longer term. I don't think the US economy is necessarily going to "collapse" but most people are worse off now than in 1999 and this is despite the loosest financial conditions ever which aren't going to last "forever". Even under a continuation of current economic conditions, most people are likely to be worse off than now.</p><p><br /></p><p>Outside of maybe bullion substitutes like MS Morgan dollars which benefit directly from higher metal prices, I don't remotely see it happening to $50 to $150 coins. Given how hugely inflated the US price level is generally, about the only way higher prices after inflation seems remotely possible is if the future collector base has a much higher proportion of the affluent population. Even if this happens (and I don't believe it will), the "rich" aren't going to be buying "collector" coins which is exactly what $50 to $150 coins represent. </p><p><br /></p><p>There are so many of these coins, the prospects that the future collector base will increase enough to absorb them at higher inflation adjusted prices isn't that great. The visible supply is likely a fraction of what actually exists.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="World Colonial, post: 2444339, member: 78153"]The population has little to do with the price level. I'll agree it matters somewhat in the US because of the scale of collecting but it isn't one of the primary factors, especially when the growth is disproportionately going to be in minorities who have a much lower historical propensity to collect and a much higher percentage will have little to zero affinity for US coins anyway. Presumably like most others here and on other coin forums, you probably also have a much rosier economic outlook than I do longer term. I don't think the US economy is necessarily going to "collapse" but most people are worse off now than in 1999 and this is despite the loosest financial conditions ever which aren't going to last "forever". Even under a continuation of current economic conditions, most people are likely to be worse off than now. Outside of maybe bullion substitutes like MS Morgan dollars which benefit directly from higher metal prices, I don't remotely see it happening to $50 to $150 coins. Given how hugely inflated the US price level is generally, about the only way higher prices after inflation seems remotely possible is if the future collector base has a much higher proportion of the affluent population. Even if this happens (and I don't believe it will), the "rich" aren't going to be buying "collector" coins which is exactly what $50 to $150 coins represent. There are so many of these coins, the prospects that the future collector base will increase enough to absorb them at higher inflation adjusted prices isn't that great. The visible supply is likely a fraction of what actually exists.[/QUOTE]
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A Take on the coin market.
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