25Th ASE Sets Going For $850

Because everyone who bought 5 sets or has more is selling all of them but one likely in most cases. Sure there's a limited amount with the mintage numbers but the market is getting flooded with the offload of them from collectors who bought more than one. Once the frenzy dies down, the prices will settle as they make their way into private collections. I'm not arguing that they won't likely be around 3 times the issue price but no one for sure can claim the final price once the frenzy settles down.

 

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That's the whole point! The frenzy is over but the value of the 20th set is still over 3x more than the issue price with 150k higher mintage. What's confusing about this?

You're saying $330 is a cheap (crashed) price for a set of 3 ASEs from 5 years ago, with only one being unique. Your argument doesn't makes sense.

 

I'll make one bold prediction. If you buy a set aftermarket in the next three months, you'll be paying too much.

If you really want one and didn't get a set from the mint, wait until the feeding frenzy dies down.

Anyone remember the 2010 5 oz ATBs?

 

The issue prices are irrelevant, especially for the 2011 set. The Mint badly mispriced it (unless the aftermarket price crashes).

 

I never said it was cheap, I'm trying to say there's no frenzy for the set any longer and it being harder to pick up drives or keeps the value where it is today. A quick search on eBay, there are only about 4-5 of these sets being sold which are about 5x the original price actually. First you said there's still a frenzy for the 20th set, now you're saying it's over, which is it?

I'm not disagreeing with you that the 25th set is going to likely go up, the reason you're seeing it at only $700 - $900 is that, even with the low mintage numbers, the market is getting flooded all at once with people offloading the extra sets they purchased. If these people were smart and if I opted to buy 5 sets for the intention to sell them, I'd probably wait til the buying frenzy was over and sell them at a higher valued price a couple years later when they're actually harder to obtain. The people buying just one set are likely buying it for their collections, not to resell.

 

20th sets

Here's the frenzy that died down.... $389 for 3 ASEs, 5 days to go. Another for $360 with 13 bids so far.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/2006-20th-A...968?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item4ab099f258

According to some here these sets should be $150 or less. Instead, they're trying to prove a point by proving themselves wrong. The 20th set still has strong demand. They were well over $300 last year at the shows I went to at a time when there was no publicity for them.

 

I beg to differ cause it could go both ways, if you really want one, buy it now for $700-$900 while the market is seeing it's flood of the offload from dealers and collectors who bought more than one. Once the frenzy dies down and people have them stashed in their collections, you'll see the price more than likely go up some more as they'll be harder to find and the price likely settles at a more fixed going rate amongst dealers and collectors.

 

I'm not disagreeing with you either. You said they're still in a frenzy, a frenzy is extreme mental agitation; wild excitement or derangement. These might be selling at 3 times the original price but people are not in a frenzy to go out and buy them like with the 25th set just released. That's what I'm trying to say!

 

The point is, Vess, that shortly after that 20th set sold out, it was selling for 1K on the secondaries, just like this set is now. So, the fools who bought a set for 1K after the fact, are now left with a set worth, as you quote, between $360 and $389 with time to go. I bet it doesn't get to $500. Thats a substantial loss, at least for many. I guess thats the overall point.
Guy

 

I'm keeping 3 sets and I believe many other people are keeping two or three sets. Go look at the poll I posted last week.

It doesn't matter what you want to call it with the 20th set. I repeat, "I agree the frenzy is over" but it doesn't matter. You aren't going to find that set for $150, $250, or even $300. It has settled to nowhere near the issue price or melt value like some want to pretend. You just admitted that there will be fewer for sale down the road which will likely increase values from where they are now. You changed your tune since your first post. No argument here.

 

We're not even comparing apples to apples here. So the 20th set, being the first anniversary set, sold for 10x it's issue price? Yeah, that's pretty inflated. This one is selling for slightly over double the issue price with a 150k less mintage. Seems reasonable to me. Not much of a frenzy.

 

But this forum contains likely a small percentage compare to the rest of the sets out in the market now.

This was my original post which was more a hypothetical but no where did I change my tune over the course of this thread. I was primarily focusing on the "frenzy" you were trying to say is still around with the 20th Anniversary set.

If you can point out where I've actually changed my tune, then please do. I've reviewed every post I've made in this thread, not once do I feel I've changed my actual tune. Because in my first post, I was just countering the argument someone made that Silver could be $100 an ounce in the future where I said well, it could go back down, we don't know for sure. Even in my first post, saying the "demand or cost will stick around" is pretty much saying it could go up at a more settled price once the frenzy settles.

 

The eBay prices you see now are mostly flippers/speculators selling to other flipper/speculators. True ASE collectors either already got their set directly from the mint or will wait until prices settle down. Collectors will ultimately determine the value of these sets as the flippers/speculators will move on to the next big thing soon enough. As far as long term value, the two unique coins will carry a nice premium and the others will trade close to bullion. I think this set will settle in the $500-700 range over time, but that is just a guess. TC

 

geeeeezzzz who would have thunk?

jaf

 

Hi Chris,

Yes, I do believe the price of the 95W will crash. I think there were around 30k of those buggers minted and they are trading for around $2900. That is a lot of money for a very common coin.

So I think we can all agree that the price is supported by huge collector demand, and not rarity.

A true rare coin will always be a rare coin, but collector demand is fickle and can change.
What I see happening to kill the demand is the Mint flooding the market with more and more special sets. Eventually supply will catch up to demand on these "special" sets and coins and prices will begin to drop. As prices are dropping, interest and demand will continue to fade. Because of the huge amount of supply, the crash will be swift. Collectors attitudes will change and many will start seeing ASE's for what they truly are, A bullion coin, plain and simple.

Mike

 

The way im seeing it, The total amount of graded sets will be well under the 40k mark so with that said, Graded sets will be the rarity and feel that they will commend a premium rate, My # is $4,500 to $6,000 for graded coin sets and $800 to $1200 for ungraded sets

 

Only time will tell. I've seen this happen again and again over the years. We're at or close to the PEAK of the feeding frenzy on these. Just look around you. There are people posting youtube videos of them breaking the seals and opening sets up.

I remember a year ago when the 2010 5oz coins first hit the market, there were people buying sets for between $3-4K after-market. If you got one from one of the dealers who got them from the mint, you paid around $1k. Flippers came in and made a killing. Now, a year later you can get a set for $1150 on eBay. I see the same thing happening here. You may not be able to get one for $300 a year from now, but I doubt they'll sell for more than $500 in a year.

If you're in the game to flip them, sell them now and maximize your profit.

Conversely if you want to overpay, buy a set right now aftermarket, then go ahead and queu up two weeks early to get in line at Walmart for your Black Friday "deals."

 

Keep in mind this premium would mean vanish if we down the path of another recession, you may face a scenario where silver spot price might have doubled to $60 but the set is barely worth more than spot price of ASE coins.

 

Well since during the last recession, (we are still in), the premiums on the 95 and 06 didn't vanish, I would be unwilling to bet another recession would be much different.

 

I say we have two new keys which will be worth 400+ each, 1k for a set