2017 Blue Book (R.S. Yeoman) prices

If a true majority used and held firm to the redbook, then why are it's prices generally so unrealistic? Many may use it as a ask pricing guide, yes, but anyone placing too much weight into listed values soon learns it is folly.



As has been said many times, the problem with the redbook has absolutely nothing to do with it supposedly being "outdated". To prove this fact, simply try to find the time when the prices were good. The truth is the problem with its listed values is where they come from, or supposedly come from anyway.

As for the blue book, it's a horrid "guide" that, as another gentleman here says, is "not worth the paper it was printed on". Any dealer/buyer who insists on basing his buy prices on it, at least for anything short of the dreck of dreck and widgets of widgets, would best be avoided.

 

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But if he bases sell prices on it, be prepared to buy out his entire stock...

 

I don't have the time now but go on great collections and the majority of their actions have a starting price and those starting prices are usually red book prices. at least for me it is rare to find a true auction on great collections starting at $0.99 or even a dollar. I know this is just one example but you can look and see for yourself. however there have been occasions where I have gotten a good deal on that site as well, but that's been few and far between.

 

Dealers don't set the market price. So no, these prices are not accurate and are irrelevant. The exception might be low priced coins and if this is what you mean, then I concur.

Otherwise, what dealers want to use is irrelevant. As an example, the absurd number of fantasy ask prices on eBay are certainly not relevant unless someone is ignorant enough to pay it. I see the same coins listed there for months if not years.

 

What you stating is not opinion, it is a fact and exceptions though maybe numerous do not disprove it.

The Red Book and Blue Book are annual price guides. The idea that prices remain more or less fixed for a year in the internet age has no credibility.

I will agree that for the almost exclusive low value material that most dealers may hold as inventory where most of it is US, these coins may sell at Red Book prices. The same applies to low priced world coins which US dealers offer at the Krause list.

The reason I can see this being true is because dealers are the primary buyers and can set the market level.

However, this isn't remotely true of any coin which is actually scarce (however defined) or for most coins selling above nominal prices. For world coins, I can tell you flat out that Krause just makes the prices up. Outside of low priced coins as I described, coins only sell at the Krause price by coincidence and the list prices don't match price guides in the home market either.

For US coins, I have read numerous posts on both the NGC and PCGS forums which have stated that the Greysheet isn't accurate for any number of coins and series either because too many coins aren't "widgets" where multiple examples of the same coin even in the same grade are actually worth the same price. This is either a weekly or monthly publication.

If this is true of the Greysheet, how can the Red Book or Blue Book possibly be accurate?

 

So you're suggesting that absurdly low prices for US and world moderns are real but real coins are underpriced! You're suggesting that Krause just makes up prices for real world coins but less expensive ones are right whether the prices are artificially low or artificially high!

Price guides are a joke. They just make up a set of "valuations" and sell the same guide year after year after year. They'll sometimes apply some fudge factor such as to adjust the prices for silver price changes or a hot series but otherwise nothing changes because the original set of numbers is as good as anything they could dream up to replace them. They don't want to alarm collectors that prices are going up or down when they publisher has no clue anyway.

Price guides used to mean something but in the digital age they mean nothing at all. You need to look at completed sales to see what coins are really worth since the guides can't be bothered to report prices.

 

Uh, okay.... but no halfway intelligent or self-respecting dealer is going to do such a thing short of, perhaps, with the earlier mentioned types (and even then I wouldn't suggest bothering to "prepare" for it).

 

IMO, the blue book (wholesale price guide ?) makes good kindling when ripped up. It is totally worthless and unrealistic. Useful book for the ignorant (uninformed) collector.

The Redbook is a must have. Lost of good info; however the pricing info is also virtually worthless. Remember, this is published as just a guide. In an up market and most other years it may be out of date as soon as it is released. This is also a book for beginners. For example, when someone comes to me with a complete circulated quarter collection in a blue folder, I tell them to look up the quarter page in the Red book and the coins (32-D, 32-s, etc.) that show an above average listing in G/VG are the "good" ones.

Serious collectors/dealers have the Graysheets, auction records and the Internet to "find" prices more in line with the market. The only time I've ever seen a dealer pull out a Red book or Blue Book at his shop was when they were looking up a mintage, seeing if a coin was rare, or stealing something!

 

Considering our prior post exchanges, it should be obvious to you that your post is a mischaracterization of my comments.

What I am telling you and everyone else here is that to the extent the Red Book or Krause are reflective of market prices, its probably because dealers are able to set the market level. I have already told you numerous times before that if these coins were to be offered at a no reserve auction, they would not sell at the list price most (not all) of the time but usually probably for less. For US coins, I suspect it would happen less often but it applies to both though I cannot tell you every instance.

The reason I was making the distinction between "lower" and "higher" priced coins and "scarce" versus "common" coins is because "scarcer" and "higher" priced coins don't tend to sell very often in a retail setting. You know this as well as I do. So obviously, no price guide is going to be accurate for any coins which fit this criteria.

I was not referring to coins such as those in your prior post here recently where some $700 1982-P quarter (presumably one of the PCGS MS-67 because it sure isn't any others) worth $700 is listed for $15. Given that annual price guides don't include all Sheldon grades, it should be apparent I was not using anything like this as an example. You also know this and know that I know it but (once again) choose to intentionally confuse the issue.

I also find your response interesting even after our prior debates where you used the Krause prices to attempt to support your claims. You were the one who was trying to claim Krause represented the real price then, not me.

 

This is not strictly true. I said that many foreign coins sell at or based on Krause prices because neither party knows better or because it is advantageous to the party which does know better. Very few world coins trade at Krause prices if both parties know better because Krause is typically wrong.

There seemed to be an implication in your post that dealers are happy to get Krause prices. This may be true to a limited extent but I certainly can't get the coins I want at Bluebook or even Redbook and certainly not Krause.

 

I agree with your first paragraph.

As to the second, it just depends upon the coin and since you appear primarily to be referring to US coins, I attribute this to your example of the 1982-P quarter I provided in my last post.

Since I don't collect US coins anymore and find price guides worthless generally, I don't know what the Red Book or Blue Book state as the value in the most recent edition for any coin, including for a specific grade. You stated $15 for 82-P quarter in another topic in a prior post where the actual value is $700. This presumably is for a (PCGS) MS-67 because MS-66 are worth a lot less ($66 for the last Heritage sale I saw from several years ago) and the lone PCGS MS-68 is certainly worth a lot more.

My question to you is, what grade does the Red or Blue Book use for the 82-P at $15? If it is for an MS-66 or MS-67, then you right. The guides are wrong and should be corrected.

If it is something else, then I don't believe you have any basis for complaining, in this instance. An MS-65 might be worth somewhat more than $15 but the difference is immaterial. Unlike with world coins (where I agree it is an obstacle on occasion), I don't see that it makes much difference because I don't believe it is discouraging anyone who actually wants to know the "real price" (which is actually a range and fluctuates over time anyway) from paying what it "should be" worth.

 

@cladking
@World Colonial

Lets please forget about the Blue and Red books in your discussion. It's a dead topic, both books are inaccurate in most cases concerning price.

IMHO, a more interesting discussion and one you can inform and disagree on for all our benefit is the pricing in the world coin catalogue. It will shorten the posts too.

 

Somehow it doesn't seem likely to be worth the trouble and effort. After extensive argument it seems that our differences are primarily ones of perspective and especially that I believe that the coin hobby can and probably will grow significantly especially in other countries. From this perspective I can see demand for moderns increasing many fold.

I just don't see things the way World Colonial does. He's very well spoken and can defend his positions but I believe he's wrong. He disagrees but I think a part of the reason for his perspective is that he can't accept modern coins as being fully "collectible" the way older coins are.

We've been through it from every direction. We have different premises and neither is willing to even tweak them. I admit he could be right but it seems unlikely to me. I would agree that a great deal depends on macroeconomic events which are unpredictable.

 

It may not seem like it the last few months but I actually have a lot of sympathy for the authors of the Redbook. They didn't create the grading mess and it's hardly fair that they should have to fix it. But the fact remains that their pricing is exceedingly misleading on modern coins and they are doing this market a tremendous disservice. For instance they list the '83-P quarter at $7 in MS-63. In my experience not even one coin in five of this date will qualify at such a high grade due to excessive marking and a little trouble with badly worn or misaligned dies. That means if you went through five rolls of these you could put together about a roll of MS-63's. A couple of them would be MS-64 and one of these might make MS-65 (almost). So Redbook is saying this cherry roll is worth $280.

This is utter nonsense. The reality is that a normal roll (MS-60) wholesales upward of $800 and the cherry roll would slab for about $1800 (on average). So what's worth $7? The only way to pick up an '83-P for $7 is a dog sitting in dealer stock. But be careful because a lot of these dogs bite; they have a rub. An XF on ebay often sells for $7 and this coin is exceedingly common in XF and is unusual in MS-63. Probably fewer than 15,000 of these exist in MS-63.

How can a market for beginners exist when the price guide for beginners is so far out of touch?

 

The guides have people who monitor the marked. Sometimes they do not do a thorough check. Someone interested in correcting the prices should write a nice letter to the RB editor and suggest a change for several issues based on the actual prices the specific coins bring. He won't bite.

Only downside IMO is the coin dealers will hate you and the editor as all the non-collectors who have a RB and find a 1983 quarter will be at their front door!

 

I'd write a letter but I believe this is intentional. How else do you explain that a $7 classic wholsales for $3 and a $7 modern wholesales for $15?

 

Please do and address it to: Kenneth Bressett c/o Whitman Publishing. 3101 Clairmont Rd, Suite G, Atlanta, GA 30329.

 

The only reason I almost totally disagree with you is because your premises do not remotely reflect how collectors actually act. Collectors do not act as you claim now, they never did in the past and I have never read a post of yours anywhere where you have provided any reason to believe that they will act as you claim in the future either.

I have demonstrated specifics in numerous prior debates which reflect actual collector behavior. If I wanted to use premises like yours to claim that the coins I prefer and own would become a lot more popular and valuable, I could certainly do so but I don't because it is illogical. Your claims and premises are predominantly your personal preference and nothing more.

My view of moderns has nothing to do with a failure to view them as a collectible. I reject your claims that collectors will ever come to prefer them remotely to the extent you state. I also reject the idea that the collector base will grow to the extent you believe elsewhere (outside the US) for the reasons I previously explained to you which are first primarily a function of culture and second, because the coins (prospective) collectors actually want to buy at meaningful prices do not exist in comparable numbers to US coinage.

 

I don't believe the prices are as off as you imply. In the example that you gave, you need to look at actual sales. Heritage records two sales of a 1983-P PCGS MS-66 in the last month, at $35 and $55. They might be over graded by your standards but that is what PCGS graded them and they must certainly be a lot better than an MS-60.

I don't believe anyone would have success selling a roll of 83-P quarters in MS-60 for $800 or $20 each, graded or not. In a slab, I doubt an MS-60 would even sell for the grading fee.

On eBay right now, someone has five NGC MS-65 offered for $25 each with one sold. (Eleven are pictured.) If this coin is really worth $20 in MS-60, you should go out and buy every one of them, right now.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/ONE-1983-P-...414528?hash=item51e7fc2d40:g:0fwAAOSw-4BXYBzg

 

Nonsense!

I have never in my life heard anyone say that a 19th century US gold coin isn't really a coin so isn't collectible. I've never heard anyone call a nice Gem 1913-S type I buffalo a piece of debased junk that shouldn't be collected because they'll be coming out of the woodwork for centuries. They save these comments for moderns and it has been getting said for more than half a century now.

You're immune to the logic here so let me try some numbers.

When I was a boy there were 10,000,000 collectors in the world and most of them lived right here in the US. The most popular collectible by far were moderns. People were buying bags, rolls, and mint sets like they were going out of style and dreaming of the day it would make them rich. It was unnatural for so many people to collect moderns and I collected buffalo nickels and scratched my head a lot. Fast forward to 1964 and the government killed this market. They killed it so completely that it stayed dead and it even prevented new coins from being born for decades because even coins that didn't exist at that time were deemed worthless and uncollectible. Fast forward again to 1995 and without new coins (the common wisdow was no coins had been made since 1964) and the collector base in this country had shrunk to about 4,000,000 and almost nobody collected moderns still. This isn't natural either.

This is 2016!!! Today there are budding modern collectors in this country and all over the world. As these collectors and collections expand there is growing demand for many modern coins.

Simple concept here please try to follow it; price is set by supply and demand. For practical purposes no other factors affect it. In collectibles price is largely about demand because supply is somewhat dependent of definitions and availability. The largest increases are caused by the largest proportional increases in demand. Demand for buffalo nickels couldn't possibly increase more than about ten fold from 1964 levels because lots of people collected buffalo nickels in 1964. But almost nobody collected something like 1963 Indian aluminum coins in 1963. With such a tiny base the number of collectors can easily increase 1000 fold, 10,000 fold, or even more.

It's this which makes moderns explosive. It's this which is causing the massive increases in the prices of so many modern coins and it's barely getting started. When your cab driver tells you to buy moderns it will be time to dump everything except your core collections and fish in shallower water.

People must try to be countercyclical in all things. But this especially applies to things related to financial issues. If you buy when buying is popular and sell when selling is popular you will lose your shirt again and again and again. If you run to starboard with everyone else you'll drown with everyone else when the boat capsizes. We always have a choice and I choose to enjoy those things that others don't.