It's been almost four years since the 2011 Silver Eagle (25th anniversary 99,882 set) 4.5 hour mint sell-out completed...let's see how things are going based on eBay auction price spreads so far this year, in various configurations: - Sold directly from the Mint to the original owner back on October 27, 2011: $299.95 plus shipping - Original Mint packaging, sold on eBay this year: $541 to $690 (80 to 130% gross gain) - All 5 coins graded NGC 69: $461 to $660 (54 to 120% gross gain) - All 5 coins graded NGC 70: $820 to $1076 (173 to 259% gross gain) - All 5 coins graded PCGS 69: $509 to $599 (70 to 100% gross gain) - All 5 coins graded PCGS 70: $926 to $1250 (209 to 317% gross gain) Conclusion: better to have sold your sets back in 2011 and early 2012, when the prices topped out.
Nah, these sets should go much higher. Compared to the 2006 set, the 2011 is way undervalued. I'm holding mine.
I second the OP's analysis. Until and unless I observe similar pieces having a second run-up after the original one (aside from a later bullion effect), I'm not going to take it on faith. There is no supply and demand dynamic that would cause a secondary rise after the first one fueled by the "NOW, NOW, NOW" effect. Gotta see it before I'll believe it. Sounds like you held more than you should have, SQG.
Nah, there's usually a second, third, etc., run up as new demand materializes. The 2006 set sat for a long time and only saw decent gains after the 2011 set was issued. Granted, a fair number of stackers bought these sets, so a bullion run up wouldn't hurt demand for these. Another damper on the market for the 2011 is most of them went to flippers and some of that supply is still on the market, yet is beginning to dry up. Now, if the 2011 set mintage was high, I'd dump them, but no way with under a 100k.
This isn't the first time SQG has made this prediction on some of the newer issues. I'm with you. It's not gonna happen! Chris
One things for certain, it will go up or down. Another thing for certain is there are coins that have potential and those that have no potential to appreciate. This set is just one of the ones I like.
Even though prices plateaued, selling a set now and doubling your money is not a bad thing. It's academic for me anyway as I have no intention of selling my 1 set.
I totally disagree as the 2006 Sets had their biggest gains in late 2006 and 2007. They did have a sustainability factor which is greater than the 2011 sets though in that original issue price at $100 is easily surpassed by 100% in todays market. Not so much for the 2011 sets which fell dramatically of over the past 4 years. Having sold multiple sets at better than $1,000 raw in 2011, the sets have yet to see that price since then and I doubt that they ever will. Lots of folks are still pissed at the US Mint for setting a 5 per household limit on a set with a production max of 100,000 sets. This would not be the first time something was dissed by the collecting public "just because".
I've only seen the 2006 going up, aren't they around $400 for a no problem set? At that price for only one key at 2.5 times the mintage of the 2011 2 keys, well you do the math. So, since you believe the 2011's are currently at the best they'll be, you're selling the rest of yours at these prices?
You're spot on, 19Lyds, the chi-squared shaped price curve over time can have a highly variable duration of its peak, or near it, but a second inflection point, indicating a fundamental new source of demand, virtually never materializes, as YoYo's research reveals. That may happen way down the road, if we ever get income distribution rewired in the economy, creating more people with disposable income (NOT more disposable income for the same people who already have plenty), but not until then.
I sold 4 sets and kept one for my Dansco as I do have a Silver Eagle Collecting problem! And no, I would only sell if I either got tired of looking at the cumbersome packaging or if I could break even. I currently have a 2013 Set on eBay which I constantly get offers for $160 - $162 for. Its a BIN at $175 and I'll not take a nickel less than $170. The coins in that set are the best of the bunch that the US Mint put out in those 3 years IMO. Especially that Enhanced Uncirculated!
Very true for the economy as a whole. Yet, for coins (the hobby of kings), the money is there, it's a matter of redirected demand. Someday those ASE collectors will want to fill all the holes.
So you're saying it depends on people who have always had the means, but decided not to buy before, suddenly "finding inspiration"? Not that gullible, sorry.
I sold my sets no reserve on ebay right in 2011 and only saw about $800 prices. You must have done very well.
A lot of people lost out on the 2011 set from the mint and dissed it, just decided they didn't need it. The big money in moderns is going to the next mint issue, not the prior ones. I'm betting the mint will issue keys for all of the current series before it moves onto the next series, and not undermine the keys it's issued. Once new collectors pick series to collect, they'll have to have these keys, or maybe not. Either way, I like parking some money in these types of sets.
The only flaw in that logic is that it depends on the opinions of coin guys being umm, malleable. Do you not read well? [kidding, of course]
The young ones, the new collectors are malleable. The old ones, well like they say, "You can't teach an old dog new tricks" and they won't be a part of future demand.
If the 2014 gold Kennedy and Baseball HoF debacles haven't taught everyone the folly of the flipping culture, well... I can't help you any more.
