Message:

<p>[QUOTE=&quot;World Colonial, post: 2432422, member: 78153&quot;]I believe the metals are in a &quot;correction&quot; to a counter trend rally but the bottom is not in from YE 2011.&nbsp; From 1979, I believe gold is in an uptrend but silver less certain.&nbsp; If this is confusing, its because there are different sizes (degrees) of trend.</p><p><br /></p><p>If any markets are waiting for a pin to pop to return to its trend average, its the bond, stock and real estate markets.&nbsp; &quot;High quality&quot; bond yields are near the all-time recent lows which is ridiculous given that credit quality is obviously much worse for all developed country government bonds, especially the 1930&#039;s.&nbsp; The &quot;historical return&quot; on the US stock market you referenced has been reduced by the two bear markets from the last decade but still hugely inflated versus what it would otherwise should be if it weren&#039;t for monetary distortions.&nbsp; There isn&#039;t anything normal about it either.&nbsp; I believe that at some point in the future, the &quot;long term&quot; returns will more closely resemble what they did between 1929 and 1982 which weren&#039;t really that great.</p><p><br /></p><p>As for real estate, it should be apparent that there is vast excess capacity commercially based upon excessive cheap debt.&nbsp; Same for residential where even with generational (and maybe all-time) lows in mortgage rates, the home ownership rates are the lowest since the 1960&#039;s.</p><p><br /></p><p>Homes in most markets are &quot;affordable&quot; but only because credit standards are absurdly lax and not remotely tight.&nbsp; Most people are so broke that it&#039;s only because of almost non-existent down payments and government guarantees for almost 100% of all mortgages that the resale market is in good shape, even while new home construction has been in the dumps since 2009.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

Your name or email address:

Do you already have an account?

• No, create an account now.
• Yes, my password is:
• Forgot your password?

Stay logged in