The Tyler Sisters

As of 05 May 2010...

Letitia Tyler
.....Unc: 3164
...Proof: 5078

Julia Tyler
.....Unc: 2779
...Proof: 4713

The prices are currently $741 (Unc) and $754 (proof). If the price of gold averages over $1207 for the remaining five (5) London Fix periods (AM/PM) this week, the prices will climb to $766 (Unc) and $779 (Proof).

The BIG question is "How will the Mint end the double coin group of Letitia and Julia Tyler?" They went on sale staggered by about five (5) weeks...

Letitia Tyler: 01 July 2009 (postponed from 04 June 2009)
Julia Tyler: 06 August 2009

It wouldn't be surprising if the coins went "off sale" staggered by the same five (5) weeks...with the Letitia Tyler going "off sale" when the Jane Pierce design is released (June 2010).

Will the Jane Pierce be released in the beginning of June (when the Letitia Tyler was "supposed" to be released) or will it be later in the month? Will both Tyler designs end together when the Jane Pierce is released or will they be staggered?

If the ending times are staggered, the Mint may leave the Julia Tyler on sale just long enough for the current supply to run out...rather than produce extra coins that may have to be later destroyed. That's what they did with the Jackson Proof coin (ended it three weeks early...remember?)

With gold prices on the rise and uncertainty (in my mind, anyway) as to when the Julia Tyler will end, the Julia Tyler could become the newest "KEY" date! :loud::secret:

 

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concur

 

I picked up one of Julia Tyler coins just because I like the look of it. It's an attractive coin on both sides.

 

Looks like the Yak-Pack is back, and we're all........

 

Iam confused, Why do the amounts made differ!! From sister to sister???

 

It will require some reading on your behalf: Anna's Demise and Four beautiful "liberty" presidential gold spouses.

 

Up To Their Old Tricks Again!

It looks like the US Mint is up to their old tricks again. The Tyler proofs went up in sales (as would be expected), but the Uncs actually declined (returned to the Mint).

This is evidence of what I've been saying all along...the Mint restocks returned coins in the hopes the next guy won't bother putting up with the BS, cost, and risk it takes to return a coin to the Mint. The vast majority of returned coins are the Uncs...I suspect because they're not handled with the same care as the Proofs.

If I wanted to buy an Unc Tyler coin at this point, I would stick to NGC/PCGS graded coins from a dealer or eBay. Poor quality coins from the Mint and "possible" counterfeits are a problem this late in the game.

As of 13 May 2010...

Letitia Tyler
.....Unc: 3095 (-69)
...Proof: 5090 (+12)

Julia Tyler
.....Unc: 2751 (-28)
...Proof: 4743 (+30)

With gold prices above $1200 and the remaining available coins "less than pristeen", there's a good chance the Julia Tyler Unc coin could sell less than 3,000!

About the only way I know to evaluate the potential of the First Spouse series is by comparing it with other modern (1991-2002) gold commemoratives with mintages as close as possible to the FS coins. Keep in mind that other modern gold commemoratives are only:

$5 coins: 8.539 grs - .900 gold/.100 copper (net .2418 oz pure gold)...less than half the gold content of the First Spouse coins.

...the prices listed are for MS67 and reflect $800/oz gold (< $200 bullion value per coin).

I got the figures from the 2010 Red Book (which is really the 2009 Red Book since that's when it's sold!)...so take it for what it's worth; a comparative measure at best.

1991 Mt. Rushmore - 31,959 - MS67: $325
1992 XXV Olympiad - 27,732 - MS67: $325
1992 Columbus - 24,329 - MS67: $325
1993 Bill of Rights - 23,266 - MS67: $325
1993 WWII - 23,672 - MS67: $375
1994 World Cup - 22,447 - MS67: $325
1995 Civil War - 12,735 - MS67: $850

1995 XXVI Olympiad (Torch Runner) - 14,675 - MS67: $800
1995 XXVI Olympiad (Stadium) - 10,579 - MS67: $1300
1996 XXVI Olympiad (Flag Bearer) - 9,174 - MS67: $1100
1996 XXVI Olympiad (Cauldron) - 9,210 - MS67: $1000

1996 Smithsonian - 9,068 - MS67: $1250
1997 Jackie Robinson - 5,174 - MS67: $5,500
1997 Roosevelt - 11,894 - MS67: $1000
1999 Washington - 22,511 - MS67: $475
2001 Visitor Center - 6,761 - MS67: $2000
2002 SLC Olympics - 10,585 - MS67: $550

This shows (hopefully) price trends for modern gold commemoratives relative to their mintages. There are many other factors involved, too...such as "collector base". I imagine there's more desire to own a Jackie Robinson coin than a Capitol Visitor's Center coin...(duh!).

It's likely that the sheer variety of FS coins being released in a short period of time will dilute the collector base to a point where most coins will trade for "about bullion" for some time after the series ends.

Additionally, folks that want to collect the series are simply running out of money (that's my delemma!) and don't want to keep that much money tied up in an investment that won't pay out for some time; older, more collectible coins are likely the better "percentage" investments.

HOWEVER, I suspect that within ten (10) years after the end of the series (around 2025), you will start to see increasing interest in the series and a ramping up of prices...especially for the lowest mintage coins. ...making them good "long term" investments...(imho).

 

Very nice write up and comparative study! I really admire the work you put into these FS coins analyses.

I'll throw in this suggestion, the coming 2011 United States Army Commemorative Coins which will offer a $5 gold piece (90% gold composition and a maximum mintage of 100,000) will further dilute sales of next years FS coins. They will be cheaper than the FS coins and more accessible to a wider range of collectors and their budgets. Collectors in 2009 had no new commemorative $5 gold coins, not since the 2008w bald eagle $5 gold coin was released, with a mintage of 15,133. For your reference: A short while back Elaine posted these mintage figures for the $5 gold commemorative coins.

I bet the 2011 Medal of Honor gold coin will be a big hit, especially with the forthcoming 2011 departure of the US Military from Iraq to consider along with general military interest in this coin, huge numbers of collector/vets in the hobby, currently active military personnel or otherwise interested collectors.

The FS collector has to be a tough lot to hang in there with rising metals prices, competitive products and sloppy Mint quality and customer service issues.

 

Thanks Krispy...I agree, any other gold commemoratives will further hurt FS sales. It seems like everything is conspiring against this series.

Elaine's figures would have saved me a lot of time had I remembered to use them them.

I wonder where she got here mintage figure for the Franklin Roosevelt Unc commemorative...not to say that the Red Book is the "last word" on mintage figures, but it lists the mintage as more than twice what Elaine has...interesting.

 

Krispy...just to show you how incredibly "cheap" I am...each time I ordered FS coins from the Mint, I didn't want to waste the fixed S&H fee so I also ordered ten (10) each of the silver/clad proof sets and the Unc sets.

I love the silver set (last of the state quarters and the proof 95% copper cents). The Unc sets are the only place to find the 95% non-proof cents. I got a bunch of these sets now and, with sales ending next month, it looks like these will be some of the lowest mintages sets...if there isn't a great spike up in last minute sales.

As of 13 May...

Silver Proof: 759,645
Clad Proof: 1,466,755
Unc: 681,055

fyi...:secret:

 

LOL! Sound's good. I don't think it sounds cheap. Frugal. No sense wasting money on shipping. Are mintages released with the CDN/graysheet? Elaine may get them through that channel.

 

I got them from this week's NN Mint Stats.

 

Excellent post. One thing though, the gold commems have a quarter oz of gold and Spouses have a half oz.


opps I just saw where you wrote that

 

I just do not see much room below the current mintages. I mean we are left now with the hard core Spouse collectors here.

 

I consider myself one of those "hardcore" FS collectors...but I gotta admit, it was a lot easier keeping up with the series at $500/coin than it is at $800/coin.

Early on, I was doubling up on coins in case gold went up. The idea was to sell off the dupes to keep up with the new issues. I've heard other say they're going to just do the Proofs (or Uncs) and sell off the others. This intermediate selling will keep prices down for some time to come.

FS coins sold by the Mint sell at about a 20%-25% premium over bullion. There are times when I've found NGC/PCGS graded coins (MS70/PF70) on eBay for less than the Mint premium price...which is a "no brainer". However, every FS coin I buy on eBay is one less coin I can afford to buy from the mint.

When the newer commemoratives come out, it will be easier for most folks to buy a "one-and-done" coin rather than trying to keep up with a series that has five (5) more year to go!

I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the more obscure future issues sell less than 2,000 Uncs. That likely wouldn't happen unless the coin prices go over $1000 each...that would be gold around $1600/oz. If gold goes that high, I'll probably have other, more pressing issues to deal with than my coin collection. :rolling:

 

I am truly flattered and I thank you.....

 

Interesting...CT let's me quote myself! ...but I digress.

I see that the Mint has announced on their Product Schedule page that the Jane Pierce First Spouse gold coins will go on sale Thursday, 03 June 2010. :hail:

It will now be interesting to see how they end the Tyler (Letitia & Jane) coins...both at once, staggered, when they run out...who knows?

I would have thought they would list the Tyler coins under "Last Chance" if they were going to end them when the Jane Pierce comes out...(you can cut the tension with a knife!). :bigeyes:

 

As of 18 May 2010...

Letitia Tyler
.....Unc: 3134 (+39)
...Proof: 5149 (+59)

Julia Tyler
.....Unc: 2797 (+46)
...Proof: 4799 (+56)

Current Key Date...
Anna Harrison (sold out)
.....Unc: 3537
...Proof: 6250


The thinking on "the street" is that the Letitia Tyler coin will "sell out" in two (2) weeks! That could mean final sales of around 3300 (Unc) and 5500 (Proof)...well below the Anna Harrison totals...especially for the Proof!

I suspect FS sales will be light this week in anticipation of a price decline next Thursday. If that happens (a drop in prices) sales could spike for the last week of the Letitia Tyler...but not enough to beat the Anna Harrison (imo). If prices don't drop, sales could be even weaker.

It's unclear what will happen with the Julia Tyler, but my guess is that they will have "surprise" sellouts as the current supply runs out. The Mint probably won't mint any new Julia Tyler coins unless there's a surprise spike in sales.

So the Julia Tyler final sales and end date are still up in the air. It will be interesting to see which of the "Tyler Sisters" will be the new Key Date coins of the First Spouse series...or if they will share the title (one with Proof and the other with Unc).

As the "Key Date" designation changes hands from Spouse to Spouse, the total number of people in the world (universe) that can possibly possess a full collection of First Spouse coins continues to decline. That number may fall below 3,000 once the "Tyler" dust settles.

Personally, I would like to buy more of the Tyler coins, but I have limited funds and have to save my money to buy the Jane Pierce coins on their first day of issue...I don't want to wait and run the risk of getting damaged coins.

 

Amazing!!!

As of 26 May 2010...

Letitia Tyler
.....Unc: 3145 (+11)
...Proof: 5150 (+1)

Julia Tyler
.....Unc: 2807 (+10)
...Proof: 4812 (+13)

Amazing...just one (1) more week to go and the Letitia Tyler has to sell 1100 more proofs to catch the Anna Harrison!

Of all the people in the world that have access to US Mint online sales (and who "apparently" desire gold), only one (1) person bought a Letitia Tyler Proof coin...simply amazing!

I'm not sure when they will end the Julia Tyler, but at this rate, she may not sell over 3000 Uncs...WOW!

EDIT: I just saw this on the Mint News Blog...

This is HUGE! I expected sales of the Tyler First Spouse coins to be brisk this week with the lowering of prices...but it sounds like the Mint plans to keep prices right where they are...amazing!

June 3rd, 2010 will go down in Numismatic Lore as a RED LETTER day! ...like the days during WWI when you could buy rolls of Unc 1916-d Mercury dimes for $5...amazing!