Gold Price, How Low Will it Go??

I've not bought or sold enough in the last few years to really make a "liquidity" analysis.

My LCS pretty much treats gold bullion like gold bullion. He even gave me spot bullion for some modern commemorative I had to sell a few years ago.

A good dealer/LCS has buyes for gold at the market price so liquidity shouldn't be a concern for ANY gold coin. You might not get the premium or anything above spot gold you paid, but you should have no problem getting spot gold's price.

 

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I think what we’ve seen in the markets is just the beginning.

 

That's a risky bet, IMO. With bond yields having some sizzle/bite...with the Fed declaring war on inflation....I don't think you can bet on a decade of inflation.

Gold has held up very well YTD compared to BitCoin, cyrpto, stocks, and even "safe" bonds.

 

I never said there would be a decade of inflation. It hasn’t been 2 years. I just said it will get worse before it gets better.

 

So you think we are close to a peak in inflation, a few more months ?

 

More interest hikes are coming, with that
said it makes it harder for family to live
gas, groceries and energy are at record
levels, even fast food is being hit, went
thru Baker California on my way to LA
and we stopped on got something to
eat, there’s a DQ there and they wanted
$15 for a 4 pc chicken basket, this same meal in Vegas is $7.95 ! crooks ! LOL

 

Not at all. I expect double digit inflation. Prepare for the worse, pray for the better. I have my investments, T-bills, and precious metals. The PM’s are still dropping so it’s creating a buying frenzy.

A junk silver dollar is now $30 at my LCS but can be found cheaper elsewhere. The prices over spot on both gold and silver are insane. But like my LCS says, “You can’t stop the public from buying.”

He had to raise his prices because as soon as he gets them in, they’re gone again. He bought a 1000 ounce of silver and it was delivered 2 weeks ago. He said a guy was in the shop at the time of delivery and asked what was in the package. It was heavy for its size.

The dealer opened it and showed him the 62 1/2 pound silver bar. The guy asked how much and bought it. It was over $22,000.00 and it was in the shop about 20 minutes. To me, that’s a buying frenzy as he can’t keep silver or gold bullion in stock. It’s very difficult to selling something that large.

 

62 and 1/2 did you weigh it ?

 

1000 ounces is 62 1/2 pounds. Just divide 1000 by 16.

 

I don't think so. It's either divide by 12 for troy pounds, or divide by something complicated to go from troy ounces to avoirdupois pounds (which is probably more useful). Google tells me it's actually a little under 69 pounds avdp.

 

That makes it worse.

 

There's no doubt that the Gold & Silver Bugs in our country are buying.

But not enough institutional or central bank buying because otherwise both gold and silver would be alot higher.

Rising premiums are anomalies....rising PRICES are what indicate a real demand shift.

 

Rising premiums are a form of greed.

 

this article stated Central Banks basically doubled gold purchases to 83.8 tons in the first quarter of 2022.
Central Banks Added Nearly 84 Tons of Gold to Reserves in Q1 - AnalisaGold.com

and I only added 14 tonnes to my private storage .. or 14 grams ... or something like that.

 

It could also be a liquidity premium reflecting heightened risks aside from price volatility.

If enough people don't buy -- if they get pure silver from other sources -- the premiums should/must fade.

 

Yes, if the volume of sales dropped than so would the dealer premiums. But the buying has increased and that’s pushing the premiums upwards.

 

RETAIL buying has...small purchases....not enough institutional, industrial, or CB demand to move the price.

Did we see retail premiums soar when silver went to $45/oz. in 2011 ? I can't recall.

 

As I recall no they didn’t.